My Guys: Week 4 – Aidan O’Connell, MVP Watch and WR Power Rankings

Every week Adam from Talent Alone brings you an article curated to a list of My Guys. Who are his guys? Well, you can see the list here. These are a group of players that, due to fantasy, priors or playing for the Commanders, Adam feels a sense of take ownership of these players.

Alright, Week 4 of NFL action is in the books. With a 34-31 NFC East showdown, a two-defensive touchdown Cowboys game, and the death of the Greatest Show on Surf, there is a lot to get to this week. Unfortunately, that’s not how this series works so instead let’s talk about a bad Aidan O’Connell performance, long-shot MVPs, and power ranking some Wide Receivers.

Aidan O’Connell

I was uhhhhhh maybe a little too high on Aidan O’Connell with no real evidence. On Sunday, Aidan O’Connell got his first NFL start against the LA Chargers due to Jimmy G being ruled out with a concussion. O’Connell was a standout on the My Guys list due to his status as a third-stringer and he wasn’t expected to play a snap this season, much less start in Week 4. It did not go great. So let’s take a look at what went wrong. First, let’s look at the numbers:

The Numbers

-0.219

Aidan O’Connell’s EPA/play. Basically, whenever Aidan O’Connell played five snaps, he was LOSING the Raiders one point. Among all QBs who have taken at least 50 snaps so far this year, which puts O’Connell with the third-worst mark (Shout-outs to Bryce Young and Daniel Jones for having worse EPA).

46.2%

O’Connell’s Success Rate (the percentage of plays in which he had a positive EPA) was not great and not terrible. For reference’s sake, Jimmy G, the most average QB you can think of, has a success rate of 50.4%. A success rate under 50% isn’t necessarily a bad thing if a player has a really high EPA/play. However, Aidan O’Connell’s EPA and Success rate does not spin a tale of overwhelming success for the Perdue Product.

6.1%

O’Connell’s percent of plays deemed turn-over worthy. This is kind of a skewed stat with such a low sample size (46 Dropbacks and 3 Turnover Worthy Plays), and, while it would set him with the 5th highest rate in the NFL, everyone but one guy in the top five has only played one game and have less than 50 dropbacks. Can you guess the one guy in the top five with multiple starts and more than 50 dropbacks? Here’s a hint, played all four games so far. Still not sure? 143 dropbacks. What if I told you his top targets are a running back and two tight ends? That’s right, former Cincinnati Bearcat Desmond Ridder.

4.5%

The swing in the win% of the Raiders winning before and after Aidan O’Connell’s 4th quarter interception.

8.7%

The percent of O’Connell’s dropbacks that were play-action. It doesn’t seem like the offensive staff in Vegas was very interested in helping out their very young, very green QB. To look at a good coaching staff working with a young QB, the Houston Texans and Bobby Slowik are calling about a quarter of CJ Stroud’s dropbacks as play action.

Alright, so we have some of the numbers now. Let’s sit down and watch the tape and see what went wrong and what went right.

The Film

What Went Right:

What I think we saw flashes of in O’Connel’s first start was, like, Kirk Cousins? Which isn’t a bad thing. O’Connell was driving the ball in rhythm on anticipatory routes, especially late in the game. He was especially effective at getting the ball out as receivers broke in their route when the Raiders went to a no-huddle offense in several drives.

The few times Aidan O’Connell had a ton of time in the pocket, without getting hit by Khalil Mack, O’Connell was able to go through reads and hit some players moving out of structure or on late-developing routes. 

Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. There’s an old Seinfeld bit about building the whole plane out of black box and the Raiders took that to heart. While Jakobi Meyers has been an effective WR2 for Las Vegas so far this year, the Raiders siloed a lot of their offense through Josh Jacobs and, while not injured, Davante. And it was effective! Jacobs in the run and pass game was a force against the Chargers.

What Went Wrong:

Aidan O’Connell made some rookie mistakes. The kind you make when you were effective in college and not quite up to speed on how to be effective in the NFL. A few times O’Connell tried to throw without driving off his back foot and it really slowed down the ball speed and accuracy.

This is the play before the game-sealing pick to Assante Samuel Jr.

Aidan O’Connell had a 19-yard completion on 4th and 10 Davante Adams to the LAC 3-yard line. When O’Connell threw the ball, he was on the move and threw it without setting his feet. The pass goes high and Davante has to jump to catch it. Michael Davis pushes Davante out of bounds and sets up the game-sealing pick. Here’s the thing, Davante had Davis beat and if O’Connell drives that ball we’re talking about a tie game and not a game-ending pick one play later.

Aidan O’Connell also probably needs to speed up his internal clock. I mean that’s probably obvious with the whole 7 sacks thing but still. O’Connell had an average time to throw of 2.74 seconds which isn’t absurd or anything but it was the plays where his first and second read were covered that we really see O’Connell hold the ball for an extensive time. Top-level QBs (Think Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes) will take off here but either O’Connell doesn’t have the legs for that or needs to learn better when to tuck and run. Here’s a play where O’Connell gets sacked (By Khalil Mack) after locking onto one read despite the open space in front of him.

There are several times when O’Connell locks onto his first read and veteran defensive players are reading where the ball is going the whole time.

The Coaching staff didn’t exactly do a ton of favors for Aidan O’Connell. They started off with a decent play-action balance, but by the second half, they had completely abandoned the play-action game. It was pretty effective when running play-action too! O’Connell had a few overthrows and drops but they only ran 4 play-action plays.  

Verdict:

Obviously incomplete, which is a cop-out but hey it’s one game. He showed much better flashes late in the game when the team was passing early in the down and playing with a faster tempo. He was getting into rhythm and throwing players as they got into their breaks. O’Connell was holding onto the ball too long once his first read was gone. He also repeatedly locked onto his receiver with his eyes early in the play, which nearly led to a few extra picks downfield.

The offense wasn’t called in a way to help Aidan until the 3rd or 4th quarter and that also makes it harder to judge.

Let’s keep positive thoughts for now and hope we see improvements in his next opportunity (and maybe some more play-action).

MVP Award Watch

I love talking about season-long awards. There is no time too early in the season for me to talk about awards. So far, we have done preseason picks and talked about the MVP race on our podcast that came out on Monday. However, since this is the My Guys Week 4 article, we have to find a different slant. 

Let’s look at who meets the qualifications for MVP from the My Guys list.

Qualifications

• Starting Quarterback (Last non-qb win was in 2012)
• The team is the First or Second Seed (The last 3 Seed or Lower team with an MVP was in 2012)
• Since 2015, Highest EPA/play in the league.
• No Rookie has won the award since 1957

With that in mind, here are the QBs on the My Guys list who are eligible for the award:

• Aidan O’Connell
• Anthony Richardson
• CJ Stroud
• Jordan Love
• Lamar Jackson

Here is how everyone stacks up on the other two qualifications:

• Aidan O’Connell – Not a starter, Team won’t be a First or Second Seed, 37th among all QBs this season in EPA/play
• Anthony Richardson – Starter, Team won’t be a First or Second Seed, 22nd among all QBs this season in EPA/play
• C.J. Stroud – Starter, Team won’t be a First or Second Seed, 16th Among all QBs this season in EPA/play
• Jordan Love – Starter, Team *probably* won’t be a First or Second Seed, 13th among all QBs this season by EPA/play
• Lamar Jackson – Starter, Team could be a First or Second Seed, 17th among all QBs this season by EPA/play

Prospects aren’t great right now for one of My Guys to win the award but let’s look at the favorite here and make the case.

Lamar Jackson

Current odds to win MVP +1100

Let’s look at Lamar’s 2019 season (when he won the MVP) compared to his 2023 season.

Lamar Jackson 2019 – through 4 games

• 0.285 EPA/play
• 8.28 Yards/attempt
• 10 Passing touchdowns
• 238 Rushing yards
• 1 Rushing touchdown

Lamar Jackson 2023 – through 4 games

• 0.094 EPA/play
• 7.56 Yards/attempt
• 4 Passing touchdowns
• 220 Rushing yards
• 4 Rushing touchdowns

Probably not a great look if you’re someone with a preseason Lamar MVP ticket. And it doesn’t get much easier, by Tankathon, the Ravens have the 11th hardest Strength of Schedule remaining including games against San Fransisco, Detroit, and Seattle. I’m not quite giving up hope yet, but it might not be the year for any of our guys to take home The Manning (we really need a good name for the NFL MVP)

Other Award Candidates

Rookie of the Year

CJ Stroud OROY +175

Stroud Crowd baby. CJ Stroud currently leads all rookies in EPA/play, Passing Yards, Yards/attempt, Touchdowns, and Most Importantly, wins, sort of. Get on the train now, it might be the last week to do it.

Power Ranking

Four weeks into the season gives us some sample to work with. We already know whose seasons are over (the Bears) and we already know who is probably competing for the Super Bowl (the Buccs). With that sample size, we can make wild sweeping ranking choices on some players on the list.

I’m usually not a big fan of power rankings, but as a website trying to make money, give me that sweet sweet SEO.

Let’s talk about Wide Receivers:

7) Jahan Dotson – 55.6 PFF Grade

Best Game: Week 1 at Arizona – 5 Receptions 40 Yards

Dotson is in his Sophomore year and we’re all looking for the breakout. The small man out of Penn State lands at the bottom list but I’m still hopeful. Dotson flashed huge in the boom-or-bust offense captained by Taylor Heinicke last season. Sam Howell hasn’t shown himself to be a YOLO artist quite like Heinicke yet but as he grows into the offense, maybe we’ll see an uptick in Dotson’s production.

6) Drake London – 66.0 PFF Grade

Best Game: Week 2 vs. Green Bay – 6 Receptions 67 Yards 1 Touchdown

Poor, poor Drake London. For those who listen to our Talent Alone Podcast, we’ve picked the Falcons as the OFFICIAL team of the Talent Alone Podcast, and the more Falcons we watch the bleaker it gets for London. The good news, Drake London has prototypical size that makes him a great contested catch prospect. The bad news, Drake London has been catching passes from completely washed Marcus Mariota and Probably not an NFL QB Desmond Ridder. Even worse news, Arthur Smith is morally opposed to Fantasy Football and high-volume passing offense so until something gives, probably shouldn’t expect top-end counting stats for London.

5) Zay Flowers – 75.5 PFF Grade

Best Game: Week 1 vs. Houston – 9 Receptions 78 Yards

Oh boy, do I love me some Zay Flowers. Another small fast guy on the list but with Lamar Jackson’s deep ball ability, I see a more robust season in play for Zay Flowers than for Jahan Dotson. It’s also worth noting, who is Flowers competing with for receptions? He’s far and away first in receiving so far this year, beating out second-place Mark Andrews by 10 receptions four games into the season. He’s also building trust with Lamar as he has ZERO drops on 29 targets. After a few years of stone-handed receivers in Baltimore, I bet Lamar appreciates a WR that actually catches his passes.

4) Terry McLaurin – 69.4 PFF Grade

Best Game: Week 4 at Philly – 8 Receptions 86 Yards

Okay let me clarify something, as a lifelong Commanders fan, the season is already won. We’re stuck in no-man’s-land, Sam Howell is probably not the answer, the O-line is a bottom 5 unit and the D-line is a top 5 most expensive unit, but we got rid of Dan fuckin’ Snyder and the parade lasts all season. Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, I feel bad for Terry. Here is every Quarterback he’s got a target from: Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz, and Sam Howell. During that time he has the 13th most Receiving yards. Let’s get this guy a real QB and soon.

3) Amon-Ra St. Brown – 82.5 PFF Grade

Best Game: Week 2 vs. Seattle – 6 Receptions 102 Yards

The Catch Rate Merchant, Target Horder, The Sun God Amon-Ra St. Brown. With the 6th most receptions since coming into the league and the 5th most receiving first downs in 2022, Amon-Ra is maybe the perfect QB for Jared Goff and Ben Johnson. He is the wheel that drives the machine and he does as he is one of the most reliable pass catchers in the NFL right now. To boot, St. Brown also has a killer mentality with an Arya Stark-like memory for the receivers taken ahead of him in the draft. I would love to argue that we need to get Amon-Ra a better QB but Jared Goff has been playing really well in Detroit and as long as we keep him in a dome, we might need to get used to seeing the Lions into January.

2) Chris Olave – 82.1 PFF Grade

Best Game: Week 1 vs. Tennesee – 8 Receptions 112 Yards

Another entry into the “Let’s get this guy a real QB” series in this article, Chris Olave is a talent to put it lightly. Chris Olave has that whole Davante thing where he can just get separation anywhere on the field with his feet, reach, and speed. Sporting a 14.9 his rookie year, Olave set himself out immediately as a deep threat but also popped off with a 90.5 grade in the short depth range (0-9 yards past the LoS). Seriously for those of you out there who like the All-22, pick some Saints tape and watch Olave work off the line his rookie year. I’d recommend Week 3 at Carolina and Week 7 vs. the Rams. Let’s get this guy a real QB.

1)  Brandon Aiyuk – 93.5 PFF Grade

Best Game:  Week 1 at Pittsburgh – 8 Receptions 129 Yards 2 Touchdowns

Beyond glad I made the call to have some 49ers players on the My Guys list. Aiyuk is a unicorn, as is everyone on the 49ers. When I start trying to learn about specific players the two things I start on my notepad are “What is he good at?” and “What is he bad at?” so what is he good at? One thing of note that initially got him out of the Shanahan Dog House™ was his blocking ability. Aiyuk throws a 6-foot 200-pound frame into small defensive backs and that immediately drives his versatility, something Shanahan loves. The blocking makes it to where San Fran doesn’t tip their hand when he is on the field. Aiyuke has also been a consistent and quality WR with his high burst and solid hands. He’s also looking like an early breakout candidate. He’s been keeping even with Deebo early in the year for percent of snaps they’ve played. So what does he do wrong? Really just seems to get in the Shanahan Dog House™ and no one really knows how to avoid that.