College Football: On Saturday -Red River Showdown, Week 7 Bets and Ranking Drama
Did you rampage too hard on Friday, and end up too hungover to watch college football? Did your significant other force you to leave the house to socialize with other humans? Lucky for you, I have no life, so my schedule is always clear every Saturday to watch college football. I’ll walk you through the highlights, lowlights, and power shakeups from the previous week. Then I’ll get you primed and ready for the upcoming week. Welcome everybody, to the inaugural edition of On Saturday.
Week 6 Headlines
Horns Down in Red River Showdown
[Insert Texas is Back joke here] One last time, the Big 12 reaped the rewards of the Red River Showdown. Before they reap the rewards of the 100 million dollar exit fee Texas and Oklahoma have to pay when they head to the SEC.
Texas came into this historic rivalry game ranked 3rd in the nation, thanks to their big Week 2 win against the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners were 4-point dogs, ranked 12th, and looking for their first big signature win. They got it in dramatic fashion. OU found themselves down 3 with only 1:17 left in the game. Senior QB Dillon Gabriel came out slinging as he led a 75-yard drive down the field, capped off by throwing the game-winning touchdown as his pocket turned into a mosh pit.
I liked The Sooners’ upset heading into this game. A big part of that was Oklahoma’s defense, which came into the game as the top-graded defense per PFF in the Big Twelve and tied for first in all of college football with 12 turnovers on the year.
30 pts may seem like the Sooner’s defense had a bad day, however, that 30 points was the lowest scored in a game by Texas this year. The key in a game like this, with two high-powered offenses, is can your D make those few plays to limit the damage. The Sooners did just that. They forced 4 turnovers, including 2 in their red zone, an interception, and a turnover on downs. Those takeaways swung the game at pivotal points and were key reasons Gabriel and company were in a position to go get the dub.
This isn’t a bad loss for Texas, and they stayed in the top 10 dropping down to ninth. I don’t see a game remaining on their schedule they won’t be favored. An 11-1 finish is still expected. Meanwhile, this win for Oklahoma has got them moved up to fifth. The Sooners do have a couple of games left that won’t be cakewalks. They’re at home against BYU later in the year and will head to Kansas in a couple of weeks to face the high-scoring Jayhawks. If they get by them, an 11-1 finish should be the end result. If both teams end the season without another loss, we will be given the gift of the Red River Showdown part deux in the Big 12 championship.
An upset, an almost, and a major bag fumble. . . .
# 10 Notre Dame upset at #25 Louisville 33-20
Prior to their dramatic comeback victory against Duke in week 5, the Irish lost to Ohio State when Chip Trayanum punched it in from the goal line to give the Buckeyes the lead with only a second left.
Quickly after the play, it was realized that Notre Dame only had 10 players on the field, instead of the allowed 11.
Back to this past Saturday, late in the third quarter, the Irish offense that had been stifled all night found themselves with a 4th and 4 from the Cardinale 36 down 17-10. ND Head Coach Mike Freeman decided to kick the field goal. He took his team from being down seven to down for four. They closed the lead from needing a touchdown to tie to still needing a touchdown to win. This wasn’t just ignoring analytics, it felt more like a failure to do basic math. Much like the ability to count to 11.
I’m a believer in momentum and more so the mental aspect of sports. The decision to kick the field was another boost for Louisville’s defense and ended any chance of the Golden Domers gaining momentum or putting pressure on the opposition. The Cardinals would march down the field for a touchdown on the next possession. After that, the next three Irish drives ended: turnover on downs, interception, fumble. The average GPA of students at Notre Dame is 4.06. As for the coaching staff, I’m not so sure.
Louisville stayed undefeated vaulting up to 14th in the AP polls. They still have tough games ahead against Duke, Miami, and Kentucky. The road to going undefeated will be tough, but if their defense plays like they did this past Saturday they have a shot at pulling it off.
Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff hopes are now dead, and Mike Freeman might find himself on the hot seat. Notre Dame fell down to 21st, and things don’t get any easier. They have to dust themselves off and get back up quickly as they’ll host Heisman Winner, and current holder of second-best Heisman odds, Caleb Williams, and #9 USC this week. Speaking of the Trojans, let’s talk about them next.
#9 USC survives Arizona 43-41 in Triple OT
The vibe concerning the University of Southern California for the past couple of weeks has been that they look vulnerable. They struggled to put away Arizona State and almost gave up a big lead to Colorado, and this week they came the closest they have this year to being upset.
USC went into the game against Arizona at home and as 20.5-point favorites. The Wildcats came out swinging and jumped out to a 17-0 lead. USC trailed by 3 at the half. Now comes the part where the top ten team buries the underdog in the second half right? As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast!”. Arizona would not go away. Eventually, USC found themselves with the ball with under 2 min to go and the game tied at 28 a piece. It was simple, Williams would march the team downfield, maybe get the tuddy, but for sure get them close enough for a chip shot field goal.
Instead, we got chaos.
1st and goal from the Arizona 6 with only 16 seconds left, Williams throws an incomplete pass. Not the best call but everything was still okay. 2nd and goal-bad snap, Williams fumbles and is forced to just throw himself on it. Okay, that was scary, but the timeout was called with 4 seconds left, and here comes the field goal. Remember what I said though, chaos. The snap is high, the holder has to just awkwardly bend over to set the ball, everybody panics, the kicker comes in, and his foot goes straight into the ground. By the time he takes another swing, there is a wall of Wildcats closing in and the field goal is blocked.
We are headed to OT. It would go all the way to triple OT where the teams go back and forth on 2pt tries. Caleb Williams runs in the first two-pointer for USC and the Trojan defense makes the stop. The disaster was finally averted.
For the third straight week, an unimpressive performance from the Trojans bumped them down in the polls. They were ranked 5th going into Week 4 and now find themselves at 10th. USC does have a lot of big matchups left, 5 of their remaining 6 games are against teams currently ranked in the top 25. The first of which is this week when they travel to South Bend for a rivalry game against Notre Dame. I don’t think how they do it will matter if they end up undefeated and win the Pac-12. They would be a lock for a playoff spot. However, it’s not an easy road to that outcome.
#17 Miami fumbles in an upset against Georgia Tech 23-20
Tech went into Miami on Saturday as a 19.5-point dog. The Yellow Jacket defense made life tough on Miami, holding them to their lowest point total all season at 20. The Hurricanes kicked the go-ahead field goal to make it 20-17 halfway through the fourth, and their defense forced a three and out on the next Tech drive to get the ball back with under 6 left in the game.
Run after run, Miami continued to march down the field and chew clock. They were going to escape the upset. 33 seconds left with a 3rd and 10 from the Tech 30, all Mario Cristobal needed to do was have his QB take a knee and time would run out. Instead, Miami ran the ball. Everyone was left confused by the call followed by shock when Hurricanes RB Donald Chaney Jr. fumbled the ball.
All Miami needed was to keep Georgia Tech out of the end zone to avoid disaster. Now with 25 seconds left and no timeouts, Georgia Tech QB Haynes King made himself a Yellowjackets legend. First was a 30-yard strike to Malik Rutherford to get to the Miami 44. They hustled and spiked the ball to clock it with a single second left.
King scrambles out to his right and while on the move chucks the ball downfield to WR Christian Leary, who had somehow got behind the enter Hurricane secondary, caught the pass, and made his way into the end zone for the win.
Miami HC Mario Cristobal later admitted he should’ve taken a knee in the most “Ya think so?” Statement of the weekend.
Miami fell down to #25 in the AP poll and may have been out of it completely if they didn’t have a prime-time matchup against #12 North Carolina this week that ABC would like people to tune in to. Prior to this week, that game figured to have heavy ramifications on who would make the ACC Championship. Now it’s an absolute must-win for Miami to keep those hopes alive.
Mike’s College Playoff Predictions
You can find the full updated AP poll ranking here. We still have a couple more weeks until the committee releases its first CFP rankings. I make my predictions taking into account how the teams have looked thus far, their schedule through this week, along with the games they have remaining.
#1 Georgia
No two ways about it, Georgia topped the preseason rankings and still holds that spot.
Early on they looked like a team with a lot of players filling the vacancies left by the NFL draft and were still working to put all the pieces together. It appears they’ve done that and are now firing on all cylinders after a massive 51-13 win against a very good Kentucky team.
They obviously still have a tough remaining SEC schedule to get through, but I think their biggest test will come in the SEC championship game against what I’m predicting to be Alabama.
#2 Michigan
Another agreement with the current rankings.
They look to be a step ahead of the other highly ranked Big Ten teams, #7 Penn St. and #3 Ohio St. They will face both those teams in what will be huge games later in the year. Sandwiched between them will also be a trip to College Park to face a frisky Maryland team.
#3 Oklahoma
I can’t give Brent Venables enough credit for the job he’s done in year two as The Sooners head coach.
His squad currently sits at #5th in the AP polls. I’m predicting an Ohio State loss to Michigan along with the Wolverines going on to win their conference will remove the Buckeyes from the equation. I also believe that if Oklahoma plays at the top of their game down the stretch to remain undefeated, they will jump over #4 Florida State who has played some shaky games thus far.
#4 Florida State
After close calls against Boston College and Clemson, the Seminoles appeared to get through groves back with a 39-17 win against a poor Virginia Tech team.
There’s just not enough competition in the ACC for them to not go undefeated. The second-best team is UNC who they won’t play in the regular season, but will most likely face in the ACC title game. As much as I like UNC, Florida State is too strong on both sides of the ball and should walk away as ACC champions as they make their way into the CFP.
How We Made Money
Let’s take a look at how Vegas and unfortunate bettors looked goofy this weekend
#14 UNC -9.5 vs Syracuse – Final Score UNC 40-7
Can someone tell me why Drake Maye and the Traheels keep getting disrespected with these lines lately? Maybe it’s a hangover from their close call against Appalachian State in week 2. Either way, for the past 3 weeks UNC has beat the spread.
Minus 7 against Minnesota? They won by 18. -7.5 at Pittsburgh? They won by 17. Then most recently, they were only -9.5 at home against Syracuse and went on to win by 33. Will they start respecting the powder blue now? I hope not so I can keep making money.
Kansas +2 vs UCF – Final Score Kansas 51-22
After opening as a 3-point Favorite, bettors began overreacting to Kansas getting blown out by the then 3rd-ranked team in the country, Texas.
By game time, the line shifted to Kansas as underdogs and you could even get them plus money straight up. This was a team whose only loss was to an elite team, on their home turf, facing a team coming off back-to-back losses. It was free money.
Wake Forest +21 at Clemson – Final Score Clemson 17-12
This line was completely influenced by name value in my humble opinion.
Clemson this season isn’t the big bad team that has dominated the ACC in past years. They shouldn’t be favored by three scores against any Power Five school, let alone a conference foe. Especially a conference foe with a strong defense when you consider the up-and-down nature of the Tigers offense this season.
#2 Michigan -20.5 at Minnesota – Final Score Michigan 52-10
A betting strategy I usually find success with is fading bad Big 10 teams. Sometimes lines can be too favorable for these teams because they are in such a strong conference.
With that said, this line was even more ridiculous when you consider Minnesota was playing the best team in the conference. When this opened at -19.5 I jumped all over it. I rode the wave from last week where I bet UM -17.5 at Nebraska. A game they went on to win 45-7.
Week 6 Preview
What My Money is on in Week 7
Here are some juicy bets I like this week. Feel free to tail me. Just keep in mind I take no responsibility if you can’t pay your rent this month.
#23 Kansas(-3.5) at Oklahoma State
Did nobody learn their lesson last week when Kansas bodied UCF?
As I mentioned, this Jayhawk’s only loss was to a potential CFP team. They also sport the second-highest-scoring offense in the Big 12. Meanwhile, they are playing a team that gave up 34 points to Iowa State. The Cyclones have only scored 131 points all season. Which by the way, is more than OK state, who are dead last in the conference.
If that doesn’t tell you enough, this Cowboys team also lost to Southern Alabama. No, not Alabama, the University of South Alabama Jaguars.
#12 North Carolina(-3.5) vs #25 Miami
I’m gonna ride this Tarheel train until it drives off a road and crashes my bankroll into a tree.
The team is on a roll. They’ve smoked the spread three weeks straight and will be at home for this matchup. Heisman candidate QB Drake Maye has been ramping up week after week and exploded against Syracuse for 497 total yards and 4 total touchdowns.
This Tarheel train is a freight train driven by Maye and it’s going to run right over a deflated Miami team.
#10 USC(+2.5) at #21 Notre Dame
As a lifelong Irish fan, this hurts to say.
The Trojans should be favored. I recommend getting to this line before it possibly moves and alt-spread USC to -2.5. Four weeks into the season this looked like it would be a match-up against two of the top offenses in college football.
Then the Buckeyes broke Notre Dame.
After averaging 46 points a game through their first four, the Irish have only scored a total of 48 over the last three weeks. They did play some good defenses, yes, but the offense has stagnated to such a level, it feels like more than just stiff competition. Notre Dame does have a very good defense, but they will only be able to hold off Caleb Williams and company for so long before they get worn down and the floodgates open.
#17 Louisville(-7.5) @ Pittsburgh
This is one that leaves me on guard.
What do I not know? Even with lines I strongly disagree with, I can do research to find at least one thing sportsbooks and bettors would use to defend it. With this game, I can’t find one.
Louisville is undefeated and better at just about every facet of the game than the 1-4 Pittsburgh Panthers. You can’t even cling to Pitt’s defense to explain this. They’ve given up 72 points the past two weeks and 31 of them were to the Virginia Tech Hokies.
In case you didn’t pick up my tone there, what I’m saying is, that giving up 31 points to VA Tech is not a good look. What’s the catch? I have no clue. So say screw it and bet it.
Week 7 “Big Three Marquee”
These are three big games I’m looking forward to, that not only should be on everyone’s TV this Saturday but will also cause waves in how the season will shake out. There were some games that were close to making the cut, but I talked about them in the betting section, so my point was probably already made.
#8 Oregon(6-0) at #7 Washington(5-0)
This may be the end of the Pac-12, but they are going out with a bang.
They currently have seven teams ranked inside of the top 20 and three are in the top 10. This will be the first of six huge Pac-12 games that will take place throughout the second half of the season. All three of those undefeated top-ten teams, USC, Oregon, and Washington will face each other in the regular season.
We are going to have week-to-week chaos in the Pac-12 standings and the CFP rankings. The expectation for this game is a lot of scoring. The Huskies and The Ducks are currently averaging the first and second most yards a game in the FBS.
The big thing that will determine this game is whether or not this Oregon defense is as legit as it seems. They’ve only allowed 59 points all season, but this will be far and away the best offense they’ve faced.
The other important aspect of this one is how it could affect the NFL draft. All the talk has understandably been about Caleb Williams, but both teams in this matchup are also led by some of the top QBs in the country.
Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are currently considered to be in that 2nd QB tier on draft boards behind Maye and Williams. A big-time performance in this game could be what helps one of them end up being the third QB taken this May.
Missouri(5-1) at #21 Kentucky(5-1)
This may be no Alabama vs Georgia, but it’s still a great SEC matchup against two teams that have turned some heads.
Both teams jumped out to 5-0 starts before losing their first game of the year this past week. Kentucky had a big win the prior week against Florida before falling to Georgia, the top team in the country, and there’s really no shame in that. Meanwhile, Mizzou unfortunately couldn’t keep up in a shootout with LSU, losing 49-39.
So, how do these teams bounce back? These offenses attack in different ways. Mizzou’s strength has been through the air. Senior QB Brady Cook is having himself a great senior year, fueled by star wideout Luther Burden III, who is looking like he will be the top WR taken in the 2025 draft. Kentucky on the other hand, does its work on the ground. The Wildcats are averaging 160 yards a game rushing, led by Vanderbilt Transfer Ray Davis, and his 7.2 yards per attempt.
Kentucky’s secondary is middle of the pack in the SEC, which gives the Tigers an opening to do what they do best. Meanwhile, the thing Mizzou’s defense has done well is stopping the run. Their D-line doesn’t miss tackles. They struggled against LSU, who has the best run game in the SEC, but on the year they’ve only allowed 108 yards a game.
I’ve really been impressed with this Missouri team this year, and in total honesty, I’m going to be rooting for them this weekend.
Iowa(5-1) at Wisconsin(6-1)
If you like defense, low-scoring games, and a bunch of big corn-fed Midwest football players slamming into each other, then this is the game for you.
The West is often the weaker of the two Big 10 divisions. The East features the three-headed monster of Michigan, Ohio St., and Penn St. The point I’m getting at is, that the winner of this game will most likely punch their ticket to the conference championship.
The Badgers and The Hawkeyes both have just one loss on the season. Wisconsin was knocked out of the top 25 after losing to Washington State on the road. Meanwhile, Iowa got trounced by Penn State 31-0 during their week 4 trip to Happy Valley.
Iowa’s offense doesn’t strike fear into many teams. They’re dead last in their conference with 249 yards a game. Their 5 wins are thanks to this Hawkeyes defense that’s among the best in the country. Outside of the Penn St. loss, no team has scored more than 16 points on them. They will hold the advantage on that side of the ball.
So how will the Badgers attack this staunch D? Sure as hell won’t be through the air, with all due respect to QB Tanner Mordecai. This team leads the Big 10 in rushing, racking up 204 yards a game on the ground and that will be their only real chance to move the ball unless they are crazy enough to challenge a very talented Iowa secondary.
The problem with that strategy is that Iowa also boasts a strong run defense. Only twice this season has an RB put up over a hundred yards against them.
So here’s my hot take prediction. The Iowa offense will have a good day by their standards putting up 10 points, and they get into the end zone with a defensive score. The Hawkeyes D also shuts down the run. Forcing the Badgers to throw late in the game which ends poorly.
The underdog Hawkeyes win 17-9. Don’t lie, you know that’s a spot on Iowa vs Wisconsin game script. The over-under is currently 34.5! I honestly only put this on my marquee because it will determine who loses in the Big 10 title game to Michigan, and to help me boost my number of readers in the 55+ demo.
