College Football: On Saturday W/ Mike Regan – Week 7 Success, Betting Failures, and the Ugly USC Truth
Welcome to the latest edition of On Saturday. Week seven is in the books, and if you managed to stay awake during a rather boring 12 o’clock slate, you were able to see some great games. We had upsets, statement wins, and, as usual, a shake-up in the college football landscape. There’s a great lineup set to take place next week, but first, let’s take a look at this weekend.
Game of Week 7:
#7 Oregon at #8 Washington:
How nice is it when the most hyped game going into Saturday actually delivers?
Two Pac-12 powerhouses with playoff hopes and two Heisman candidate QBs. There were six lead changes in this punch, counterpunch offensive showdown. In the final minutes of the first half, and with his team up 22-18, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. threw just his third interception of the year, giving the Ducks the ball with 55 seconds left. Bo Nix led his team down to Washington’s three-yard line before finding themselves with fourth down and only six seconds left on the clock. Oregon head coach Dan Lanning made the call, the correct call if you have common sense, to leave his offense on the field. The Husky’s defense made a massive stop as they forced a Nix incompletion to keep their lead.
Washington increased their lead to 11 and their D continued to play well until late in the third when Oregon’s offense got back on track. 14 unanswered points later and the Ducks finally found themselves back in the lead, 33-29. Fast forward to 2:16 left in the game, after a goal-line stand on fourth down by the Duck’s defense kept their lead intact, Lanning’s team once again faced a 4th and 3.
This time just across midfield at Washington’s 47. Instead of punting and attempting to pin The Huskies deep, Lanning went for the kill. Once again Washington gets the stop and the turnover on downs. Penix Jr. took the field with 2:11 on the clock and the game in his hands. It took him two plays to make himself the Heisman Trophy favorite. First was a 35-yard strike to Ja’lynn Polk. Next snap he Rome Odunze in the endzone for the tuddy, and the 36-33 Huskie lead.
Now it was Bo Nix’s chance, with 1:38 to work with, to win the game and crush the spirits of the Washington crowd. He got the Ducks down to the Washington 25 and in field goal range. After two straight incompletions caused by Washington defenders hurrying Nix, the Ducks sent out the field goal unit with four seconds left. The game-tying kick was 43 yards, not an easy make for a college kicker. As the clock ticked zero, fifth-year senior Cam Lewis’ kick sailed wide right and the Washington crowd stormed the field.
Heading into this game I asked who would be the defense to make the key plays needed to win their team the game. I expected it would be Oregon’s. The Huskies stopped Oregon on 4th down three times this game. Two in the pivotal moments I mentioned above. Then in the waning moments of the game, those two incompletions by Nix loomed large when Lewis’ kick started out good prior to going right in the end. Five more yards and who knows. That kick could’ve held on to make it through the uprights.
Washington added a top-ten win to its resume and remained undefeated. They jumped Penn St. and Oklahoma to move up to 5th in the AP Poll. They took the inside track on getting to the Pac-12 title game, but they won’t have an easy road the rest of the season.
Three more ranked teams are on the schedule. They have to make trips to USC and Oregon state with a visit from Utah in between. The conversation of who will stand on top of the Pac-12 in its final year is far from settled.
Meanwhile, Oregon took a slight tumble down to number 10. They’re not out of the conversation yet, but they can’t afford another loss. They will face the same three teams I previously mentioned that Washington will. Making the Pac-12 title game is still in their hands, and they’ll need to walk away with the trophy to have any chance at making the playoffs.
Before we move on, I have to take time to talk specifically about the Nix vs Penix Jr aspect of this game. Both men played very well, even though it was Michael Penix Jr. who walked away with the win. This game was a good example for NFL scouts to see what kind of QB they would be getting in drafting either of them.
Bo Nix has a lot of what has taken over the NFL when it comes to desired QB traits. He’s not Allen or Jalen Hurts, but at 6’2” 217 lbs he hits the size requirement. He has a strong arm, and he’s mobile. He can extend plays with his feet or take off to pick yards when things break down. It’s easy to get swept up by the highlights of QBs scrambling to make a play but Nix is also a true dual threat. He picked up 519 yds last season and 5.7 per carry on designed runs.
Being a mobile QB with a strong arm puts things in the toolbox that not everybody can do. Take a look at this pass where Nix rolls out on the play-action boot.
Other QBs would either make a shorter throw or have to set their feet to make this pass. Nix, however, uncorks it while still on the move for a 49-yard completion. He was also seven yards behind the line of scrimmage which I think should count towards his air yards on the throw, but I don’t make the rules.
Now let’s take a look at one of those scramblin highlights that I was talking about earlier.
Nix hangs in the pocket for a moment before taking off to his right. He keeps his eyes down the field as the Huskie defense is chasing him towards the sideline. Just before he goes out of bounds he throws a laser into the endzone for the touchdown. I’m not saying he’ll be as good as Mahomes, but that was a Mahomes-esque throw.
There are still aspects of his game that need to be refined, some rough edges that need to be smoothed, but they’re all fixable things. It’s the positive things he can do that make him stand out. Getting thrown into the fire on a bad NFL team wouldn’t be ideal. A great situation would be a team with a starter in place that’s looking to get their QB of the future for a season or two from now. Personally, I’d love to see him taken by the LA Rams. He could develop behind Stafford who will be 36 entering next season and will be playing for one of the best offensive-minded coaches in the league, Sean McVay.
Now on to Penix Jr. He may not be as mobile as Nix, or many other QBs in his draft class, but he can set up shop in the pocket and go to work. He has excellent vision, and accuracy, times his throws well, and can drop them right into the bucket.
Take a look at this touchdown pass.
Penix looks to his right, the Oregon defensive back thinks he’s going to the receiver underneath and moves forward. The second that he took the step forward it was over. Penix had the 1 on 1 he wanted and dropped it into Polk’s hand for the touchdown.
He also possesses very good arm strength that he showed off on his first touchdown of the game as he shoots an absolute missile over the middle.
We did a top ten NFL Mock Draft on a recent episode of the Talent Alone Podcast. I had the Patriots taking Penix as the third QB off the board. After this weekend, I stand by the prediction, and even more so believe it’s the right pick. Hell, if I’m Belichick and company, I’ll double down on this Huskies offense by grabbing Polk in the 3rd round. Outside of his performance on the field this past Saturday, you had to be impressed with his demeanor. Penix was never rattled, no matter the situation. He remained a calm and collected leader for the Huskies. These are qualities New England doesn’t have at the position. Disagree? Show me the last time Mac Jones freestyled a comeback into existence.
Mike College Playoff Predictions after Week 7
You can find the full updated AP poll ranking here. Still have two more weeks of waiting until the committee releases their first rankings and the internet gets angry. As previously stated, I make my predictions taking into account how the teams have looked thus far, their schedule through this week, and their remaining schedule.
#1 Michigan (Current rank #2)
I’m shooting my shot here. Michigan has not faced any real competition on their way to a 7-0 record. With that said, Michigan is still the best team in the country and should be ranked #1 already.
Voters are just cowards and won’t remove a defending champ from one until they lose. Michigan hasn’t beaten lesser teams.
They’ve demolished them.
They have the best D in the country and a top-tier offense. They are the most complete team in college football, and will strongly defeat Ohio St. or Penn St. in the BIG10 title game en route to a perfect season. The playoff committee may also be too much of a coward to have them jump The Bulldogs if they too go undefeated, but we’ll all know who’s the real #1 team.
#2 Georgia (Current rank #1)
Speak of the devil. The defending champs will enjoy a bye week before leaving Athens for three straight weeks for road games against Florida, Missouri, and Ole Miss, and then return home for a showdown with Tennessee.
That’s three ranked teams and a very tough Gators squad. Star tight end Brock Bowers just had ankle surgery and his return is TBD. Based on when Tua had the same surgery in 2018, it’s looking like at least a month. It may sound crazy, but I’m just throwing it out there, The Bulldogs dropping a game prior to the CFP is possible.
#3 Washington (Current rank #5)
Hello, recency bias, meet my predictions.
I might have Huskie fever from the Oregon win, but I do think this team is the best team in the Pac-12. A real hot take following a week where they beat Oregon and USC lost, I know. Their remaining schedule is not easy. They have to face three top 20 teams, two of which are on the road. Plus there’s the matter of who they could end up facing in the Pac-12 title game given they end up playing in it as expected. Last week I had Oklahoma in this spot coming off their win in the Red River Showdown against Texas.
So that’s back-to-back weeks of ranking the flavor of the week #3. Meanwhile, fans of the actual #3 team in the nation, Ohio State, continue to write me angry letters.
#4 Florida State (Current rank #2)
I think there are teams better than Florida St. who won’t make the playoffs. It’s unfortunate but that’s just how the committee operates. If a team from a Power Five conference goes 13-0 including their conference championship game, they get in.
There is one ACC team that could stop them in said title game and that’s UNC. I mentioned it last week and I’m still of the mind that The Seminoles are too complete of a team to get upset by the Tarheels. That could change as time goes on though. There’s always the possibility that by championship week I’ll be typing four paragraphs on how UNC will body Florida St. and go to the playoffs.
Betting Results
I threw down four bets last week that I liked. Let’s see how I fared (check out the spreadsheet to keep track of my bets). More importantly, though, let me rant about how the picks I was wrong on were actually right and I got screwed by unfair forces in the universe.
#23 Kansas(-3.5) at Oklahoma St.
Result: Ok St. 39-32
Kansas isn’t the strongest defensively, I didn’t think that would matter. I expected Kansas to move the ball at will which they did. 510 yards of total offense and QB Jason Bean had 5 touchdowns. Oklahoma State just decided to give me the middle finger and have their best offensive day of the season after I threw shade last week. I was the victim of variance and I will not take any more questions on the matter.
#10 USC(+2.5) at Notre Dame
Result: Notre Dam 48-20
This one was karma. I broke one of my golden betting rules. Never bet against your own team. Maybe I was still frustrated by Notre Dame’s loss the previous week. I didn’t think the defense would be able to hold up the whole game with the way the offense has been playing. The Irish D came up huge, snagged three picks and Caleb Williams had his worst game since he became a Trojan. Notre Dame was able to lean on Austin Estime and the running game. While Hartman was good when the passing game was called upon. Toss in a 99-yard kickoff return tuddy, and a scoop n’ score touchdown by the defense as the cherry on top of the great game they had. My boys cost me money but I’m proud of them, and I’m sorry for doubting you.
#17 Louisville(-7.5) at Pitt
Result: Pitt 38-21
So, I overreacted to the Notre Dame loss last week and thought USC was the better team. On the flip side, I apparently overreacted to Louisville beating The Irish, because I saw this as an easy cover.
I said the Panther’s defense had been exposed the past two weeks. My foot found itself firmly placed in my mouth early in the 4th quarter when Pitt DB M.J. Devonshire took an interception 86 yards the other way for a tuddy.
It increased their lead to ten and broke the Cardinal’s offense. The Cardinals got the ball 5 more times after the pick-six. The results were an interception, a missed field goal, and three turnovers on downs. The ranked team got blanked 12-0 in the final quarter.
#12 North Carolina(-3) vs #25 Miami
Result: UNC 41-31
Finally a win! Ole Reliable came through again. Make it four straight covers and a season record of 5-1 against the spread for The Tar Heels. Drake Maye tossed another four touchdowns, and my excitement for the eventual Florida State vs UNC ACC title game continues to grow.
This quick side rant is aimed at the updated rankings.
First Vegas was disrespecting this team with its game lines, now the AP is disrespecting them in the polls. The Tar Heels moved up 10th in the rankings after this win. Here’s the issue with that. All five of those UNC covers were double-digit wins against power-five schools and they just beat a ranked team to stay undefeated. Why is a one-loss Oregon team ahead of them? Better yet, why is a Penn St. team that has mostly played against teams that should be in the ten-ply conference ahead of them? I am still demanding respect for the boys in powder blue.
Week 8 CFB Bets
What my money’s on this week
Everybody has bad betting weeks, it’s the circle of life. What separates the greats from the goofs is how they bounce back. Time to take the lessons learned from last week and get paid this week.
#20 Missouri(-7.5) vs South Carolina
I talked last week in my Big Three Marquee about how much I like this Mizzou team. They went down 14-0 in the first quarter last week at Kentucky and battled back to get their biggest win of the season. The defense held UK to 7 points the rest of the game, forced three turnovers, and, while it was not a great day by the Tigers offense, Brady Cook and company made the key plays they needed to win the game.
Traveling to South Carolina this week I think we get a big bounce back week by QB Brady Cook and Elite WR Luther Burden III. South Carolina is giving up the most passing yards a game in the SEC. On the other side of the ball, The Tigers are going to give QB Spencer Rattler a tough day. Rattler has been sacked 23 times through six games this year, while this Mizzou D has put up 23 sacks and another 20 QB hits on the season. 7.5 is high, it’s plus money as of this writing
#24 Iowa(-3.5) vs Minnesota
Am I really doing this? Betting on Iowa is like betting on how long paint will take to dry. They can say 30 minutes, so you feel confident in your over 25.5-minute bet, but getting to the result is going to be so boring.
Last week I predicted the 9.5-point underdog Hawkeyes would beat Wisconsin 17-10. I gave the teams too much credit as Iowa won 15-6. That aside, Iowa’s defense is really good. Like the third highest PFF grade in the FBS good. Meanwhile, don’t let Minnesota’s .500 record fool you. This is not a good football team, with a very bad offense. To be fair, Iowa’s offense is about as electric as a New York City blackout. However, they’ll only need another 15-point performance to cover here.
#7 Penn St. (+4.5) at #3 Ohio State.
I’ll touch more on this game in a minute but first, let’s chat about the gambling side of it. I usually refrain from betting on a game like this. When two highly ranked teams that are also believed to be very good teams face off, many people like to live in a fantasy where we are guaranteed a close game.
However, many times, we learn that one of those good teams is just all around better and a dog walking ensues. Also, it’s a divisional rivalry game where things can get weird for no real reason.
My biggest fear with this one? Penn St. is a fraud that hasn’t played any good teams. For the moment, however, I’ll live in a fantasy. Ohio St. has a strong defense, as does Penn State. The last time Ohio State played a really good defense it was a three-point game with a total of 31 points scored. I think we’re in store for a similar outcome. I don’t feel confident in the Nittany Lions to win, but I love them to cover.
BYU(ML +128) vs Texas Tech
I could take BYU +3.5, but the points aren’t necessary. Neither of these teams boast a strong defense and a Big 12 shootout will be on the docket this weekend in Provo.
When it comes to going back and forth offensively, my money is on the team with the QB advantage. While Cougar QB Kedon Slovis has been up and down, he’s still better than either of the QBs that have started games for Tech this year. As strong as the Tahj Brooks-led run game of the Red Raiders is, eventually they will have to throw the ball.
You also have to factor in the home-field advantage for BYU. Imagine trying to keep it together on the field surrounded by tens of thousands of screaming Mormons. Sure they’re probably screaming compliments, but it’s still unnerving.
Week 8 Big Three Marquee
#7 Penn St. at #3 Ohio State
Coming out of this game, the winner will be viewed as the biggest threat in the BIG10 to Michigan. If the Nittany Lions look to do that, they will first have to overcome the historical lack of success they’ve had against the Buckeyes. Not only does Ohio State have the lead overall in this rivalry, they’ve won nine of the last ten games.
The matchup I’ll be focusing on in this game is Ohio State’s elite receiving group up against Penn State’s secondary which allows only 121 passing yards a game. If there was ever a time for streaming services to start doing individual player feeds, it’s this game. I would like an up-close view of whenever Future Top-3 Pick Marvin Harrison Jr. is lined up across future first-round CB Kenny King.
Questions surround Penn St. as they haven’t faced any serious competition. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s only credible win was when they narrowly defeated Notre Dame 17-14. Penn St. head coach James Franklin should be studying the tape of that game, as it was the Buckeye’s worst offensive performance of the season.
The Buckeye defense is no slouch either. On average both of these defenses allow less than ten points per game. With that fact in mind, I think this game will start out slow before the offenses can start to find some traction. In that scenario, I like Ohio State’s skill position players better to get the job done as the Nittany Lion’s defense starts to wear down.
Shout out to whoever scheduled this game to take place at noon Eastern time. All of us college football fans are very grateful.
#14 Utah at #18 USC
Last week USC faced their first big test of the season after weeks of underperforming against lesser teams. They didn’t narrowly lose, their offense completely fell apart as they got dominated in South Bend by Notre Dame. Prior to that game, the narrative was, “Can the Trojans offense make up for their defense?”. Now it’s been shifted to, “Can this offense perform against top defenses?”.
USC needs a bounce-back game.
Unfortunately, their hopeful bounceback is against another one of the nation’s top defenses. In Utah’s only loss this season, they surrendered 21 points. In their five wins, they haven’t given up more than 14. Offensively the Utes sport the worst passing attack in the Pac-12 with 897 total yards through the air. They’ll have to rely on their strong running attack to extend drives and keep the ball out of the hands of the Trojans Heisman Trophy winner, Caleb Willimas.
One would hope this would help the USC defense finally put together a strong game, but they also give up the second-most yards on the ground in the conference. Knowing that Utah only does one good thing on offense should at least help them key in on what to defend.
I want to say I can’t foresee Williams having another outing like he did against the Irish. That the Utah defense will eventually run out of steam and the USC offense will take over. However, last week I had a similar feeling regarding the Notre Dame game. Keep in mind Williams was not on the top of his game the prior week against Arizona either.
The Trojans are one big Red and Gold question mark at this point with no more time against weak competition to find the answers. Outside of this game, they have a brutal three-game stretch against Oregon, Washington, and UCLA to close out the year and there is no more room for error if they want to be a playoff team.
#17 Tennessee at #11 Alabama
After the loss to Texas in week two, Nick Saban decided to experiment at the QB decision the following week to see what he had. The results weren’t pretty as the Crimson Tide offense only put up three points in the first half and totaled 17 for the whole game.
After that, Saban realized what most college football pundits already knew. Jalen Milroe is the best QB on the team. Milroe is accurate, has a strong arm, and can run. He’s kept the ship steady on that side of the ball, but Bama’s offense still hasn’t been lighting up scoreboards as they average a pedestrian 5.5 yards per play.
They rely heavily on the defense who has bounced back big time since giving up 454 total yards to the Longhorns. The Tide have arguably the best defense in the SEC, however, they will be facing another team in that category this week. Bama gives up only 16 points a game. Tennessee allows just 17. Teams average only 105 yards rushing per game against Tennessee. That’s the exact same number as Bama. The Crimson Tide has a PFF coverage grade of 93.3. The Volunteers have a grade of 93.5. You get my point.
This is going to be one hell of a defensive clash. I understand that’s not something everybody gets excited to watch. For those people, may I suggest YouTube? There you can spend all day watching videos of purely offensive highlights. I, and the other intellectuals, will be watching a game of chess as two offensive coordinators try to find any exploitable crack in these defensive walls.
Best of the Rest
#22 Air Force at Navy
Air Force is ranked, 6-0, and has won 11 straight dating back to last season. Is it a win for a President’s military policy if their football teams do well? This is going to be 60 minutes of option plays. I don’t know if there’s a way to run the option on kickoffs, but if there is, these teams will do it.
#13 Ole Miss at Auburn
Poor Auburn. Started 3-0, but one conference play started they started getting bullied like the main character in a Stephen King novel. They only lost to Georgia by one score which I’m sure was uplifting. Then they traveled to Baton Rouge and got shelled 48-18 by LSU. Oof
Toledo at Miami(OH)
Who doesn’t like some good MACtion? Both teams are 6-1 and lead their respective divisions. Forget the Buckeyes. All real college football fans in Ohio rep the Rockets or Redhawks.
