On Saturday w/ Mike: Week 9 Review and Week 10 Preview

Welcome back to another edition of On Saturday coming to you roughly 12 hours before Week 10. There is a lot to cover.

On Tuesday of this week, the mighty Playoff Committee sent down upon us college football fans their first top-25 rankings of the season. I also have to own up to my terrible week 9 bets, give you my 100%, no chance of losing, locks for this week, and finally, take a hefty in-depth look at this Saturday’s game of the week. Let’s get after it.

Since I’m coming to you late this week, I won’t be doing an in-depth review of any games from this past weekend, but here’s the …

Week 9 TLDR

 #6 Oklahoma was upset by Kansas after OU head coach Brent Venables busted out the guide to old-man game management.

Hanging on to a slim 33-32 lead late in the fourth, the Sooners ran three unsuccessful run plays and punted the ball from the Kansas 40 with two minutes left. The result was a touchback. You won’t believe this, but despite forcing the Jayhawks to burn their timeouts and flipping the field a whole 20 yards, Kansas marched down the field and scored. It’s almost like teams practice a thing called “two-minute offense.” Kansas closed it out and won 38-33. Truly a shock that after giving up 32 points, Oklahomas’s one-point lead wasn’t enough.

Oregon dominated #13 Utah. It was a statement win and proved they are currently playing the best football in the Pac-12. Place those Oregon +100 to win the conference bets now people.

Duck quarterback Bo Nix had three total touchdowns, against the defense that held Caleb Williams to just one. Nix was making defenders look goofy, throwing darts, and doing those weird things that have captured my heart. He even packed all three of those things into this one play.

Penn State struggled with the 1-5 Indiana Hoosiers for 58 minutes before hell froze over and they made an explosive play with a deep 57-yard touchdown pass from QB Drew Allar breaking the 24-24 tie. Many of us never thought it possible. Now to you Al Michaels.

COLLEGE PLAYOFF TOP 25 

The use of AP ranking in this article from this point on is officially over. We now have the first glance at how the people who decide the playoff teams think. Even outside of the top four, there’s importance as your ranking can, and often does, affect what bowl you play in. Including Conference Championship Week.

The CFP committee will drop rankings every Tuesday for the next five weeks. Each week causes more debate and fervor than the last.

As the rankings shift over the final month of the season, every week in this article, I’ll be here to explain where the committee was wrong, where they were right, and prove my superior understanding of college football. 

Top Six

The Wrong

Ohio State at #1

This was considered by many a logical outcome due to the perceived strength of schedule. They have the road win against currently ranked #15 Notre Dame and their recent home win over the now ranked #11 Penn State.

What’s the real value of the Notre Dame win? Following their week four loss, they barely got by Duke and were stomped by Louisville. Yes, they beat USC, but that’s no longer as impressive as it seemed. They did follow that up by demolishing Pitt, but everybody has been demolishing Pitt. As for Penn State, they have no good wins and almost lost to the 2-5 Indian Hoosiers this weekend. While this question is dripping in sarcasm, I have to ask.

Did the committee actually watch the games?

Despite talented skill-position players, the Buckeyes offense has struggled against every good defense they’ve faced. More importantly, they’ve stagnated in those games to a level that is not what a team that’s supposed to be the top in the nation should be.

The Penn St. game was atrocious. Had Marvin Harrison Jr. not been on that field wearing a red jersey, they would’ve lost. Ohio State’s game this past weekend was even more evidence of who this team really is.

They were tied 10-10 with Wisconsin until halfway through the third. Wisconsin’s defense is good, but not on the level of Penn State or Notre Dame. This Badgers team lost 15-6 to Iowa. Wisconsin hanging around as long they did is not a good look for Ohio State.

Ohio State is 47.1% on passes 20+ yards downfield, and 46% on throws in the mid-range of 10-19 yards. They only have 13 runs of 15+ yards, and only 25 of 10+.

For comparison, #2 ranked Georgia has completed 71% of its mid-range throws and has 41 runs of 10+ yards.

The #3 team in the rankings, and the best team in the Big Ten, Michigan, has completed 60% of its deep passes, plus double the touchdowns on those compared to the Buckeyes. For brevity’s sake, I shouldn’t belabor this point, but I’m going to, because I need to drive home the disparity among these teams. Michigan is 70% on mid-range throws and has broken off 37 ten-plus yard runs. Michigan is scoring eight more points a game than Ohio State.

Meanwhile, playing against SEC defenses, Georgia is putting up almost a hundred more yards a game.  You can scream SOS all you want. Ryan Day’s team only scored 35 on Youngstown State, an FCS team.

This isn’t the 1980’s NFL. It’s 21st-century college football, if you can’t consistently move the ball, and make chunk plays, you’re not the top team in the country. You can’t sit behind your defense and win a national title. If you could, Iowa and Utah would make the playoffs.

Arizona Unranked

Oregon State is ranked 16th. Was I in a coma, or didn’t Arizona just beat them this Saturday? I understand how wins influence these rankings. However, you have to factor in the Beavers lost to Washington State who lost four straight afterward, including one of those being to Arizona in a 44-6 beat down.

Are we ignoring common opponents now?

I understand, Arizona has dropped three games. Two of which are a one-score loss to playoff-contending Washington, and a triple overtime road loss to USC. If they want to give more weight to wins, then how come they aren’t for the Wildcats?

If only 15 teams are currently better than Oregon State, how does beating them and having a winning record not warrant a spot?

The optics make it seem the committee is heavily demoting Arizona due to their Week 2 loss to Mississippi State, who is now 4-4. I have to push back there because that was a different Arizona team with a different starting QB. Recent games, and how you are currently performing have to play a part in these rankings. Oregon State ahead of Zona would be fine, but to exclude them from the Top 25 is incorrect. 

The disagreeable, but understandable

#5 Washington ahead of #6 Oregon

Anybody with eyes can see that Oregon has looked like the better team since these two faced off last month. Washington barely avoided an upset the week after beating The Ducks, when they only scored 15 points at home against Arizona St.

This past week the pendulum swung the other way when they gave up almost 500 yards and 33 points to the Stanford Cardinals. That’s now two games straight where the Huskies had close calls against teams they should’ve easily beaten. However, this is understandable.

Washington has the head-to-head victory over Oregon, and more importantly, remains undefeated. Unlike the Oklahoma-Texas situation, The Huskies don’t have a loss the committee could look at to justify the Ducks jumping them. 

USC making the cut at #20

If I were a member of the committee, I couldn’t sign off on ranking a team that has given up 42.6 points a game over their last five.

They blew a 27-point lead against Colorado and only won by one score.

They were a two-point conversion away from going to fourth overtime against Arizona, who the committee doesn’t consider Top 25

Finally, letting California 49 this past Saturday was a terrible look.

They are two successful 2-point conversions away from losing four in a row and being .500 on the season. However, I can see the logic behind the decision. In the end, those two-point tries were unsuccessful and USC is a 6-2 team in a power five conference with a strong offense led by a Heisman Trophy Winner. On top of that, their two losses were to Utah and Notre Dame, both of which are ranked in the top 20 of these rankings.

The Correct

#7 Texas ahead of #9 Oklahoma 

I alluded to this when talking about Oregon and Washington’s position. In this case, the team with the head-to-head loss should be ranked ahead of the team that beat them. A back-and-forth rivalry game that was decided by four points, where OU scored the game-winning touchdown with 15 seconds left, is not a bad loss for The Longhorns.

Once again, the committee is more concerned with who you beat.

Texas has an impressive two-score win over Alabama.

They dominated BYU this past weekend, without Quinn Ewers.

And earlier in the year they blew out the same Kansas team that beat the Sooners.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s only premiere win was when they edged out the Longhorns in the Red River Showdown. They also showed cracks against UCF and were in jeopardy of getting upset a week earlier. They squeaked out the win after a failed two-point conversion by “The real 2017 national champions.” In the end, Texas is playing better and has a stronger resume. 

Mizzou at #14

My Tigers are inside the Top 15. I’m proud and vindicated.

Their only loss was to LSU, who the committee put 14th, in a close game where Mizzou had the lead late in the fourth. Beating Kentucky a couple of weeks ago was a good win, however, their Week 3 win over Kansas State is the more important one. The Wildcats got into the Top 25 at #23. They lost a second game in Week 5 against Oklahoma State.

However, they have been hot and looked dominant in three straight conference wins. So much so that they are currently only 4.5-point dogs at Texas this weekend. On top of that, Ok St. turned it around ever since the K-State win. They are now in the midst of an impressive four-game win streak, turning their 2-2 start into a 6-2 record two-thirds of the way through the season.

A part of this streak was an offensive explosion in their impressive win over Kansas, who just pulled off a big upset against Oklahoma this weekend. 

Now do you get it? The Jayhawks beat the undefeated Sooners, who the committee has at #9. Which in turn, got Kansas ranked #21 in the CFP and added a Top 25 win to Oklahoma State, who beat Kansas. This helps Kansas State’s stock by making their one-score loss to the Cowboys less resume-damaging. Which makes Mizzou’s win over Kansas State all the more impressive. This stuff has layers to it people, try and keep up.  

How We did on the Books

I had plenty of money in play on Saturday and watched as it all disappeared. 0 and 4. Goose egg. All wrong. Every bet I dropped in this article last week was a dud. It was sad, shameful, and something else that starts with an S. Shocking? Soiled? Sucky? 

#6 Oklahoma (-10) at Kansas 

I was blinded by revenge after Kansas came up lame for me against Oklahoma St. I attempted to make The Sooners my hired gun. Instead, the Sooners dropped the gun, it went off and shot me right in the ass.

That’s what I get for betting against current Jayhawks head coach, and former legendary University of Buffalo head coach, Lance Leipold. Especially after I realized how long he’s had his gig at Kansas.

In his first three years at UB Leipold went 13-23. In year four with the Bulls, they turned the corner. Over his next three years, Leipold had a record of 24-10, a winning record in all three seasons, and took Buffalo to three straight bowl games, going 2-1.

Want to take a guess what year he just entered as the Kansas Head coach? Number Four.

The Jayhawks went 14-19 in Lance Leipold’s first three years. This year they are 6-2, alive in the race to make the Big 12 championship game, and a victory over a Top 10 team. I didn’t just bet against Kansas. I bet against the repeating of history. 

Both bets lost.

BYU(+17.5) at #7 Texas

I’m sorry, are you mad because you trailed me on this?

Well, at least you weren’t the idiot who double-downed Saturday morning betting BYU again after the line moved to 20.5.

Malik Murphy’s workload as a passer wasn’t hefty, and he did commit two turnovers, but the Texas D never gave the Cougars offense a chance to punch back. The Longhorns showed how good they are in multiple aspects of the game. Against top teams in the country, not having Ewers will play more of a factor. In a game against a Cougar team that falls into the “frisky” category, they had no trouble. 

Wyoming (ML) at Boise

I don’t even have an explanation for this one.

Not even a fabricated straw man defense.

I knew Wyoming’s offense wasn’t great, but only 112 yards of offense? Yikes. I liked how The Cowboys defense matched up against Boise State and then they gave up over 400 yards of offense to the Broncos.

Once again, yikes.

It was never close, a win was never in play. In a pompous act last week, I informed those who don’t watch Mountain West games that Wyoming was a good team. In hindsight, maybe I need to watch more MWC before I start dropping units on them. 

#17 UNC(-11.5) at Georgia Tech

Even ole’ reliable let me down.

It’s been well documented how the Tar Heels have made me money this year. I felt UNC was better than this line but we’re being doubted coming off the bad UVA loss. I was met with the harsh reality that is the Tarheel’s defense.

Drake Maye and company put up 577 yards of offense and loss. How does that happen, you ask?

Tech put up 635. I was a fool and thought the Yellow Jackets run game would be slowed down by UNC. By game’s end, Georgia Tech trampled all over the powder blue front seven for 287 yards at 7.3 yards a clip.

For those wondering, yes, I did stay true to my word from last week and alt-spread this line to -13.5. Making myself two points more of a fool. 

Where My Money Going This Week

I tried to be nice and fun. Have some LOLZ and go off the best path with my bets. Well, no more Mr. Nice Guy! I’m going cutthroat and coming after the sportsbooks. I’m coming after their bank accounts and taking away their profits.

These bets are bon-a-fide locks.

Worst to first style. 0-4 to 4-0. Let’s do this!

#7 Texas(Alt spread -6.5) vs #25 Kansas St.

Odds: +122

I’m going to ask you a simple question.

What are we even doing here?

This line opened at 4.5. It’s moved and now has The Longhorns only laying 3.5 on their home turf. Don’t get me wrong, this is a good Kansas State team and they’ve been on a roll. Three straight wins over Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston and they’ve outscored their opponents 124-24 during that stretch.

They’re not going 4-0 against Texas schools though. Texas has one of the best-run defenses in the FBS that will mitigate what Kansas State has done on the ground this season. Malik Murphy wasn’t impressive in his first start, so the Wildcats are probably going to stack the box.

How much do you want to dare Texas to throw the ball when they have wideouts the caliber of Xavier Worthy? I get it, it’s fun to root for the underdog. The Longhorn QB situation, and how good Kansas State’s been playing has bettors thinking they could pull off the upset. Heads up, reality is on its way. K-St. just isn’t on the level of the #7 ranked team in the country. 

Iowa at Northwestern (Under 31.5)

Odds: -118

Earlier in the week, the over-under in this game fell to 29.5. I was tempted to take the under on that.

Now that it’s been bumped up a couple of points it’s no longer a debate for me. It most likely moved when bettors started jumping on the over because they couldn’t fathom a college football game where two teams combined couldn’t hit 30 points.

I don’t think they fully comprehend just who they are dealing with.

Iowa’s last two games had point totals of 21 and 22. The Hawkeyes and Northwestern are the bottom two offensive teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is dead last at 133rd in all of the FBS in yards per game while their opponent this week is 121st.

It’s pretty simple. Iowa has a good defense that a bad offense like Northwestern won’t be able to score on. On the other hand, Iowa is so bad offensively, they can’t score on any team from a Power Five Conference

#22 Kansas(ML) at Iowa State

Odds: +106

I am in a toxic relationship with the Kansas Jayhawks. We are on again and then off again. I bet on them and then I bet against them. The only constant is, I come out of it losing money and swearing I won’t do it anymore. 

With that said, I’m going to do it again.

When comparing these two teams, there is a lot that could be talked about. I could mention stats, advanced statistics, or EPA numbers. However, I’ve finally come to terms with a fact of life. None of that stuff matters in Big 12 games. No matter how much you look into the matchup or areas where a team can find an advantage, there is always a chance it will all be blown away and turn into a full-on Big 12 shootout. 

I know how well the Iowa State defense has played this year, but The Sooners put up 41 points of offense on them and Kansas is capable of hitting a similar number. Between the Jayhawks and The Cyclones, Kansas has the better QB in Senior Jason Bean.

Even if the Kansas D allows the Iowa St. to have a stronger-than-usual game on offense, Kansas has more firepower and will end up on top when the dust settles. 

Final Bet and the Game of the Week

#12 LSU at #8 Alabama(-3.5)

I have a bet I like on this game, however, it’s also the biggest game on the docket in Week 10. So, I decided to merge my final featured bet along with the preview of this game. Who am I putting my money on? You’ll have to read to find out as it will be placed at the bottom of this segment. Wait, don’t just scroll down to the bottom!

Bama vs LSU.

The Tigers vs The Crimson Tide.

One of the biggest rivalries in the history of the SEC. This is the whole reason Brian Kelly went to LSU. He only got the chance to lose to Nick Saban twice while at Notre Dame. Now he gets the chance to do it every year. 

Since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa, only twice has this game taken place without both teams being ranked. Ten times both teams were in the Top Ten, and six of those were clashes between the top five teams. Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide team have a record of 12-5 against his former team since he returned to college football in 2007. Last season it was LSU who got the win 32-31 in overtime.

As per usual, the outcome of this showdown will have big-time ramifications that’ll cause a ripple effect in how this season plays out down the stretch. Alabama lost in week three to Texas and has since won their last six straight. With each game they have continued to improve, finding their groove and how this team has to play to win games.

LSU dropped two of their first five, but have since looked impressive in three straight wins on the way to a 6-2 record. Their second loss was in week five to Ole Miss, the only conference loss on their record. The Tide, on the other hand, is a perfect 5-0 in conference play as they eye a showdown with Georgia in the SEC Championship game.

When it comes to Saban getting his team to the playoffs, they theoretically can’t afford another loss. For LSU this game is make or break. If they can get the win here they will create a long jam in the SEC West standings, as it would leave LSU, Bama, and Ole Miss, all with 4-1 conference records. It would also breathe life back into hopes of a playoff berth for The Tigers.

It won’t be easy but this is the first step. If they can win their division and the SEC title. They will have a strong case to make the playoffs even with two losses.

Styles make fights, and this game is a great example. LSU’s weak side of the ball is defense, while Bama’s offense has continued to look shaky at times.

The total points in this game could tell the tale of who won this game. If it stays in the 40 to 60 range, that fits the narrative of a Crimson Tide victory. If it goes higher it suggests LSU was able to outpace Bama for the W. 

During their five-game win streak following the Texas loss, the Crimson Tide defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game. However, during that stretch, they have not faced an offense or QB the level of LSU’s.

Tiger QB Jayden Daniels has been on a tear this year. He currently has the third-best odds to win the Heisman, and if he has a big game against Bama, it could be the moment that vaults him to the top of the list. Daniels has completed 71.5% of his passes while racking up over 2500 yards and 25 TDs to 3 interceptions. On top of that, he’s a dual threat, adding over 600 yards and five touchdowns on the ground this season. 

You wanna talk about explosive plays? These Tigers make explosive plays. Daniels has 15 touchdowns, zero picks, and 19 big-time throws of 20-plus yards. 6 of those deep touchdowns have been to wideout Malik Nabers, who is considered by many to be the best receiver behind only Marvin Harrison Jr. in the upcoming 2024 NFL draft.

This man has nearly 1000 yards on the year with four games left to play and is currently the highest-graded wideout in college football per PFF. Nabers can stretch the field while doing a great job locating the ball in the air and adjusting. He also has the ability to find the soft spots in coverage that give him runway to work after the catch. Oh yeah, and he’s fast.

Really fast.

On a weekly basis, Nabers has defensive backs going all out trying to catch him, looking like they’re on the home stretch of the forty-yard dash. 

That speed is dangerous in all areas of the field. Look at this man turn the corner here:

The Tigers possess not just one by two dynamic field stretching receivers. Brian Thomas Jr. can embarrass secondaries just like Nabers. 11 TDs on the year and 8 of them deep. He has down field separation speed that causes trouble for backs, but also, standing 6’4” Jayden Daniel’s can toss it his way and let Thomas Jr. go up and get it. 

The question shifts to, how can Alabama slow down LSU?

After a rough start to the season, star cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry has got it going. The touchdown he gave up during the team’s Week 3 loss to Texas was his last so far this season. Personally, I love McKinstry’s game.

Take a look at this clip from the Tennessee game. The Volunteer wideout tries some fancy footwork to get by him, but McKinstry hangs with him right off the line and into the endzone. He gets his head back as the pass is thrown, locates the ball, and drives the receiver toward the sideline. 

Speaking of that game, safety Caleb Downs got torched for 118 yards as the entire Bama secondary struggled giving up 349 through the air. That must’ve been a wake-up call, as he’s only given up 100 total over Bama’s last 5 games. 

As much as the Crimson Tide defensive backfield’s play has improved, Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are the most dangerous wideout combo they’ve faced all year.

In order for them to succeed, Alabama has to put pressure on Jayden Daniels. The Tiger QB isn’t a one-read jabroni. If given the time he can hang back in the pocket, and go through his reads to find the open target. 

Led by the edge duo of Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell, Bama has taken down the opposing QB 28 times this year. Turner and Braswell have 17 sacks, along with 39 QB hurries on the season. Dallas Turner has been dominant all season. At 6 ‘4″ 242 lbs, he will literally drag an offensive lineman with him on his way to a sack.

Turner’s presence has the ability to steal the attention of linemen and QBs who then never see the other guy coming. I feel bad for Texas A&M QB Max Johnson. Turner beats his man and has the tackle panic chasing him. Johnson is about to pull it down and run out of the end zone only to be blasted in the blindside by Bama edge Justin Eboigbe for the safety.

The Crimson Tide defensive line in general is a problem. They are fast on the outside, have big defensive linemen to plug up the middle, and they will have their work cut out for them. 

LSU has a very strong run game to complement its pass attack. Led by second-year Tiger and Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs, they average 213 a game, which is roughly double what Bama allows. This is where Alabama’s secondary comes back into play. Their defensive backs have done very well getting downfield to clean up and make tackles. They are part of the reason this Bama run defense has racked up 145 stops on the season, which is a run play that is considered a failure. 

Let’s flip to the other side. The struggles of the LSU defense have been well documented. They have given up over 30 points four times this season, and the highest three of those four have come against the three ranked teams they’ve played so far. How will they fare against Alabama?

The Crimson Tide are basically 50/50 offensively between run and pass plays, while LSU gives up 156 a game on the ground. This year’s Bama backfield doesn’t include any tank-size workhorse backs like Derrick Henry or Najee Harris. This year’s been a group effort consisting of 212 lb Jase McClellan, 214 lb Roydell Williams, and 220 lb QB Jalen Milroe. The trio has totaled 1233 yards and 10 tuddys on the year. 

Speaking of Jalen Milroe, how does his arm factor into this offense? Well, the best way to sum it up is, Bama will pound the ball on the ground with their run plays being separated mostly by Milroe dropping back and throwing bombs.

Almost a quarter of Milroe’s passes are deep shots of 20+ yards downfield. It’s honestly what he’s best at. Half of his 1619 passing yards have come on deep passes, and he has a 60% completion percentage and 10 touchdowns on passes 20+ yards downfield. He only has 13 total passing TDs on the year.

He has a PFF grade of 51 on throws between 10-19 yards, but if he throws the ball one yard or more farther, that grade jumps up to 98.7. To be honest I kinda love it. Offensive Coordinator Tommy Rees is out here running a Madden offense. You can say what you want about the areas where Milroe struggles, but fuck me can this kid throw a football.

I’ve dissected every aspect of these teams sans special teams. It is worth noting though that Alabama kicker Will Reichard hasn’t missed an extra point or field goal all year. He’s the highest-graded kicker in college football.

Anyways, time to stick my flag in the ground on this game. The Tiger’s offense is clearly one of the best in college football, but this will be a defensive test they haven’t faced all season. I don’t think the Crimson Tide can completely shut down the Tigers for 60 minutes, nor do I think any defense really can. However, Bama can slow them down, get pressure on McDaniels, and help their secondary deal with LSU’s unreal wideout duo. If they can do that, and mitigate the damage on the ground, they can avoid this turning into a shootout that they would struggle to keep up in. I just can’t put faith in this LSU defense. I think the deep shots will be there for Milroe, and the holes will be open to run on this Tigers front seven.

The other major factor in this game is on the sideline. Nick Saban is the greatest college football coach of my lifetime, if not ever. Dropping that game to Texas may have been a blessing in disguise. Since then, his defense has come to life, and OC Tommy Rees has figured out the optimal way to run this offense. On top of that, Bama was on a bye last week. There are few things scarier than facing a Nick Saban team after he’s had two weeks to prepare. I’m going Bama in this one. Roll Tide baby!

The line of 3.5 is about one more point than I would like. I could go money line Alabama, which currently has odds of -178. However, I’m confident in Bama by a field goal. So I’m taking The Crimson Tide – 2.5 which is currently at -148.

I’m not done yet though!

I said Alabama would have to keep this game from going over the 60-point mark for them to win. The over-under is currently set at 61.5. So, for the first time ever in On Saturday history, I’m throwing down a parlay as one of my bets. Tide -2.5 and under 61.5, which comes in at +194 If you’re a coward and want to make a straight bet then just take Bama money line or -2.5. 

Same Game Parlay: Alabama -2.5 & Under 61.5 pts

Total Odds: +194