On Saturday w/ Mike Regan – College Football Week 13

Alexander Hamilton vs Aaron Burr. Dunkin Donuts vs Krispy Kreme. Jerry Seinfeld vs Newman. These are all rivalries that have defined history. The same way that week 13, AKA Rivalry Week, can define a program’s regular season. For many fans these games are the most important of the year. For example, Florida is having a rough 5-6 season, but the stands will still be packed and going wild. Going .500 on the year may not be great, but going .500 and beating Florida St? Well that’s not too bad. The stakes in some of the games this week are cranked up to eleven with a potential playoff berth hanging in the balance. 

However, before we look ahead, we have to look back on this past Saturday. While we didn’t have any wild upsets, there was still a lot to takeaway. Some teams had dominant performances as the season started to wrap up and spots in conference title games were clinched. Some left many of us with questions and concerns about how their team truly stacks up to the top competition. All that and more in this latest edition of On Saturday with Mike Regan.

Week 12 TL;DR

Hey Michigan, you good?

How concerned should we be by the recent performances of Big Blue? Don’t get me wrong, they got the win, which is all that matters. But a 31-24 win against Maryland, when you were a 20-point favorite is not reassuring. They jumped out to a 23-3 lead but couldn’t put the nail in the coffin. Touchdowns on the closing and opening drives at half got The Terrapins back into the game. Maryland even managed to be down by only five and have the ball with four minutes left in the game. Luckily for Michigan, their defense managed to come up big when it mattered most and put this one away. 

 

The real red flags surround this Wolverine offense. They went heavy on the ground with Blake Corum once again. While Corum managed to punch in touchdowns from the one and two-yard line, the run game wasn’t as efficient as we’re used to seeing. Corum ran the ball 28 times averaging 3.8 a run. That is lower than his 4.9 season average, and a stark difference from last week where he averaged 5.2 on the ground against a much tougher defense in Penn State. It begs the question, after the way the Penn St. game played out, will defenses stop worrying about the pass?

 

A week after basically being a handoff specialist against the Nittany Lions, JJ McCarthy struggled. McCarthy finished 12 of 23 for 141 yards with four turnover worthy plays. While the 12 completions makes for a small sample size, eight of those were in short range with an ADOT of 5.3. For two weeks straight now, the Wolverines have lacked any aspect of explosiveness on offense. They now head into the penultimate showdown against Ohio St. with questions swirling of whether or not McCarthy and company can make plays when it will matter most.

ACC Championship Matchup is Official

It wasn’t always pretty, but Louisville managed to get the win on the road over Miami 38-31. In the process, they locked up their spot to face Florida St. in the ACC title game. Speaking of Florida State, the Seminoles played the one FCS team on their season schedule this week, North Alabama. As expected, the game wasn’t a tough one for the Seminoles, however, they did suffer a devastating loss. Early in the game, QB Jordan Travis suffered a gruesome leg injury that required him to be rushed out of the stadium via ambulance. The injury brought an unfortunate and premature end to not only Jordan Travis’ season but his collegiate career. Florida St. will now turn to junior Tate Rodemaker. For the most part, Rodemaker has only seen the field when coming in to relieve starters in blowouts. The upcoming rivalry showdown against the Florida Gators will be Rodemaker’s second start in his four years at FSU. There may not be a situation more fitting of the phrase, “being thrown to the wolves.” A perfect season, a conference title, and a potential playoff berth are all on the line as Rodemaker takes over behind center.

Texas avoids the upset

Texas’ trip to Aimes, Iowa to play Iowa State had many makings of an upset as I outlined last week. It was another Longhorn game that wasn’t perfect, nor easy, but they left with W 26-16. After losing star RB Johnathan Brooks the previous week, all eyes were on Freshman running back CJ Baxter. Consider the call answered. Up against the fourth-highest-graded run defense in the Big 12 per PFF, Baxter managed to put up 117 yards at an efficient five yards per run. Texas remains in the Big 12 driver’s seat. A win in the final week of the regular season will help them avoid any complicated tie-breakers and clinch their spot in the conference championship as the #1 seed. They will play host to Texas Tech this week and on paper, this should be no problem for the Longhorns. As always though, you have to take into account that this is the Big 12 and Texas we are talking about. So who knows?

JMU has the worst week ever

In their second year in the FBS, James Madison was 10-0, leading the Sun Belt Conference, and filling out waivers. The waiver was asking the NCAA to allow them to be eligible to play in their conference title game, and/or a bowl game. Per NCAA regulations, for two years after joining the FBS, teams are not eligible for either. In the end, the NCAA denied JMU’s request. In response, the school pulled a Michigan. They threatened legal action and then walked it back. The reason? Their perfect season ended this past Saturday when they lost to Appalachian State. Needless to say, it’s been a rough past couple of weeks in Harrisonburg, VA.

Week 13 College Football Playoff Rankings

There were not many changes in the Top Ten. To be specific, there was only one change, but it was a big one. You can find the complete ranking here. Let’s take a full look at this latest CFP Top 25, and see where I agree with the committee and where I think they are rather incredulous. Usually I start with the wrong, but let’s start on a positive note this week and begin the right.

Top Six

#1 Georgia(11-0)   

#2 Ohio St.(11-0)   

#3 Michigan(11-0)   

#4 Washington(11-0)

#5 Florida St.(11-0)   

#6 Oregon(10-1)

The Right

Washington Jumps Florida St.

There’s an important thing to note here. Many people have asked whether or not the injury to Jordan Travis would affect the committee’s ranking of The Seminoles. I’m going to put that debate to rest and give the answer. 

 

Absolutely not. 

 

Florida St. is an undefeated ACC school, and the playoff committee is way too scared to face the shit storm they will have to deal with for keeping an undefeated power five school out of the playoff over an injury. This shift in the Top Four is one hundred percent influenced by The Huskies’ strength of schedule. While the wins over USC and Utah are not as valuable as they may have once been, Washington still has wins over three current Top 25 teams. They beat Arizona who is #15, Oregon who is #6, and this week they beat Oregon St. on the road in crappy weather. Oregon St. was #11 at the time of the game and is still inside the Top 25 after the loss at #16. 

 

Meanwhile, The Seminoles have two wins over currently ranked teams. There was the season-opening win over the now #14 ranked LSU, and Clemson who now has four losses on the year and just finally got back into the Top 25 at #24. It’s unfortunate for FSU, but the ACC has had a down year and is the weakest of the power five. Louisville is currently ranked tenth and will face The Seminoles for the ACC Championship. If Louisville wins against Kentucky this week, it gives Florida State, without Jordan Travis, a chance to add a Top Ten win to its resume. 

 

That’s when things will get interesting. If Washington beats Oregon and goes undefeated I still think their quality of wins gets them in the playoffs over Florida St. On the flip side, if Oregon beats Washington in the Pac-12 title game I also think there will be a lot of contention over who should get in. When you factor in the chance of an Alabama upset over Georgia in the SEC title game, we could be in for total chaos.

The Disagreeable, but Understandable

Clemson gets in at #24

Meh, I’m not going to argue about it. They have four losses on the season, two of which were to now unranked teams, Miami and Duke. The other two were to #22 NC State and a Top Five team in Florida State. They have managed to reel off three straight wins. Of those, Georgia Tech doesn’t jump off the page as impressive, and beating UNC this weekend is not as impressive as it would’ve looked earlier this year. They do have the win over #18 Notre Dame, but I don’t see a logical case where that is an impressive win. Notre Dame has managed to hang around in the rankings because their two losses prior to Clemson were to #2 Ohio St. and #10 Louisville, but they don’t have a single notable win. Don’t try to say USC or I will start smacking people. Either way, Clemson has been on a roll when you factor in how strong they’ve looked in their recent victories, so I concede.

The Wrong

Iowa is in the Top 25

I’m a broken record on this one, but there is no reason Iowa or any Big Ten West team should be ranked. This past week, Iowa played host to 5-5 Illinois. The over/under closed at 32.5 and the under hit in a rousing 15-13 Iowa victory. Removing the safety, Iowa put up only 13 points and 281 yards of offense against a defense that gives up 28 points and 378 yards a game. This week they are heading to Lincoln to face Nebraska and the over/under is 25.5. It’ll probably hit too, because the Big Ten West is a joke! Iowa has been saved by its schedule and only having to face one of the good Big Ten teams, Penn State. If Ohio State or Michigan was on the slate this season, then maybe I would be saved from having to spend the time writing about this ludicrous idea that the Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the best 25 teams in the country.

How we did on the books

The best way to describe how my bets did this week is with a line by the amazing and hilarious Team Four Star. You’re either perfect, or you’re not me. That’s right, a perfect 4-0. Did you trail me? You should’ve trailed me. Last week I said I couldn’t give up gambling because it would set a terrible example for the youth of this nation. Now I am an example of perseverance for future generations. Whoever said, “Perfect is the enemy of good.” is a jabroni!

 

Outside of the featured four bets from last week’s column, I also hit on something that was a first for me. During the fourth quarter of the Michigan at Maryland game, I live bet Michigan -5.5 when they were up 29-24. Shortly, after placing this bet Terrapins QB, Taulia Tagovailoa, takes a big sack and the team has to punt. UM gets the ball on the 50, but goes three n’ out and punts. Seven minutes left in the fourth, on third and 18 from his own two yard line Tagovailoa throws an interception. It’s the Wolverines’ ball at the Maryland 39. Another three n’ out and the Wolverines once again punt the ball away. With under five minutes left, it’s feeling like my bet is cooked, until a hero arrives. UM punter Tommy Dowman, kicked a perfect 47 yard punt that bounced out of bounds at the one yard line. Tagovailoa gets sacked in the endzone, and for the first time in my life I covered a spread on a safety, 31-24. When something like that happens, you just know you’re going to have a good day.

#17 Arizona(Alt spread -1.5) vs #22 Utah

Odds: +104

Final: Arizona wins 42-18

As good as the Utah defense has been at times, I vaguely remember pointing out how they’ve gotten cooked by good offenses this season. Arizona jumped out to a 28-0 lead and Utah never managed to fight back. Noah Fifta played another great game and got to take an early rest on the bench late in the fourth with the game out of reach for the Utes. The Wildcats seemed to come out with a chip on their shoulder and dominated. Not just offensively, but they also made big plays on defense, intercepting Utah QB, Bryson Barnes twice. I’m not saying their goal was to embarrass the Utes. But when you come out calling plays like this on your opening drive, there appears to be a clear intention to make your opponent look goofy.

#1 Georgia(-10.5) at #18 Tennessee

Odds: -110

Final: Georgia wins 38-10

This game was very similar to the Ole Miss game the week prior. Which was another game that, while Georgia was the consensus favorite, some thought Ole Miss could make it a respectable loss. Just like that game, this one was close early until partway through the second when the Bulldogs steamrolled away and never looked back. Star TE and future first-round pick Brock Bowers continued to ramp up to how he was playing prior to his week seven injury and subsequent surgery. In his return a week early, he caught three passes for 34 yards and a touchdown. He got more involved this week catching seven of his eight targets for 60 yards and another tuddy. Right now it’s more about Bowers getting comfortable and back into his groove. Kirby Smart’s team is going to need him at full strength for the upcoming SEC title showdown against Alabama, and an expected playoff run.

#10 Louisville(Alt Spread -2.5) at Miami

Odds: +108

Final Score: Louisville wins 38-31

Of all my bets, this one had me sweating the most. It was a back-and-forth affair for the whole sixty minutes. It was tied 31-31 with just over five left in the fourth until Cardinals WR Kevin Colemen took a little swing pass 58 yards to the house. Louisville’s defense cleaned things up from there, ending Miami’s next possession with a turnover on downs, and avoiding any sort of hail mary when Miami got the ball with 19 seconds left in the game. It was another heartbreaker for The Hurricanes this season, who came up a touchdown shy of taking #5 Florida State to overtime a week prior.

#5 Washington(ML) at #11 Oregon St.

Odds: +114

Final Score: Washington wins 22-20

I said I was betting on The Huskies being able to pull out another close one, and that’s what happened. It was a gritty win for Washington who managed to avoid an upset while playing in terrible conditions. Neither offense was able to do much as the rain poured throughout the whole night, but when gut check time came, Michael Penix Jr. made the play. With under two minutes left and facing third down, Penix Jr. delivered a dart to Rome Odunze for 19 yards to ice the game. In a sport where how you win can carry weight on how you’ll be perceived by a ranking committee, we sometimes forget one of the most important aspects of championship-caliber teams. When the game’s on the line, can you find a way to win?

What My Money’s on In Week 13

Talk about pressure. Coming off a perfect 4-0 week, I have set a high standard to maintain. On top of that, you never know just how drunk games can get in rivalry week. Even so, I never back down from a challenge and have cooked up another batch of premium-grade locks. While not one of my featured bets, I think we should all be sicko’s together and bet Iowa vs Nebraska under 25.5. You know you want to.

#21 Tulane(-3.5) vs UTSA

Odds: -110

We are set up for a fun finish in the American Conference. Entering this last week of the season, three teams have a perfect 7-0 record in conference play. One of them is SMU, who is a heavy favorite against Navy this week. If things go as expected in that game, then The Mustangs will be headed to the conference championship. The other spot in that title game will be decided here as Tulane faces off with The University of Texas at San Antonio. I called out the Greewave last week for not taking care of business against lesser opponents. They must’ve read my article and used it as bulletin board material. Their 24-8 win, and cover, over FAU this past week felt like a get-right game for them. 

 

When it comes to this week’s matchup against UTSA, I do think Tulane holds a defensive advantage, however, the main reason I’m betting on Tulane to beat UTSA and cover this spread is behind center. I’ve been banging the drum for Tulane QB Michael Pratt for a while, and I’m not putting away my drumsticks anytime soon. Here’s a fun fact, the QB with the second-highest EPA per attempt in college football is Michael Pratt. The senior QB finished last week’s game 21 of 28 for 252 yards with three touchdowns to zero interceptions. Speaking of interceptions, Pratt’s only thrown four of them all season. It was by far, his best performance since he missed time with an early season knee injury. If that’s a sign that Pratt is back to 100%, then this bet is an absolute lock. The biggest advantage The Green Wave has against all teams in the American Athletic Conference, with the slight exception of SMU, is their QB. He’s accurate, athletic, and makes the right decisions.

#10 Missouri(-8.5) at Arkansas

Odds: -110

Mizzoooouuuu! I’ve been ride or die with my Tigers all year, might as well ride out of the regular season on the bandwagon. It has been a disastrous year for Arkansas and their defense has felt the effects. Even in games where the Razorback D has started well, the lack of execution by their offense eventually wears them down and the floodgates open. They play host this week to one of the hottest players in college football right now. In his last five games, Tigers RB Cody Schrader has totaled 628 yards on the ground and five touchdowns. On top of trying to stop the ball of chainsaws that have been Schrader, the Arkansas secondary has to crack the code of stopping one of the best wideouts in the country. I’m talking about the man, the myth, the legend, Luther Burden III.

UNC(-2.5) at #22 NC State

Odds:-115

Why do North Carolina and North Carolina St. play each other during rivalry week? UNC’s biggest rival is Duke, who is playing Pittsburgh for some reason. The Wolf Pack feels like a weird third wheel that’s wedged its way into the Tarheel and Blue Devil’s relationship. I wonder if UNC will be thinking about Duke while they are beating NC State.

 

It may seem weird to see a Top 25 team be an underdog at home against an unranked foe. However, NC State is just barely inside the threshold of qualifying as a Top 25 team. The Wolfpack are 8-3 this season and it’s primarily off the back of its defense. They fit the profile of a Big Ten West team. For example, NC State is second in the ACC in defensive EPA per play, while being dead last in offense. They will be playing host to a Tarheels offense that leads their conference in yards per game overall as well as leading the way through the air and on the ground. I know Drake Maye and company had a rough game at Clemson this past week, but they won’t have to do as much this week to get the win. The Tarheel defense has had some real stinkers this season but is average enough to handle an offense the level of the Wolf Pack. This bet comes down to whether or not Maye can help his squad score a field goal more than NC State. When you boil it down to that, my money’s on the future Top Five NFL draft pick.

#15 Arizona(Alt spread -13.5) at Arizona State

Odds: +110

My first three bets were on the set lines and therefore have minus odds. So I decided I needed to get a little risky with this last one to get plus odds and help the overall balance on my spreadsheet. What better team to do this with than one of the hottest teams throughout the second half of the season, The Arizona Wildcats? 

 

On the other side, despite being called The Sun Devils, Arizona St. has been anything but hot this season. They sit at  3-8 on the campaign with an anemic offense that’s only managed 17.3 points a game. Their defense, on the other hand, is actually solid, nothing spectacular but in the middle of the conference in most aspects. However, in all of those data points, they come in behind Zona. So the Wildcats defense is a step ahead of Arizona State’s and their offense is leagues ahead of The Sun Devils. Add in the recency bias of Zona hanging a forty burger on a Utah defensive that is notably better than Arizona St. and there’s no reason this shouldn’t be a multi-score blowout in The Wildcats’ favor.

What to watch in the final week of the 2023 season

We’ve got one big-time game of the week to cover. If you follow college football, I’m sure you already know which one I’m talking about, and no, I don’t mean the massive showdown between 2-9 UCONN and 3-8 UMass. Before we get to that though, let’s take a quick look at a couple of Power Five conferences whose Championship game competitors are still not finalized.

The Big 12

Currently, Texas sits atop the division with a 7-1 conference record. As long as they take care of business at home against Texas Tech, they will clinch the #1 seed and their spot in the Big 12 title game. 

 

Behind The Longhorns are Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas St. All three with a 6-2 record in Big 12 play. OK St. is in the same situation as Texas. All they have to do is win at home against a BYU squad that is in the midst of a four-game losing streak and has lost six of their last eight. Sounds simple enough, but I would like to remind everybody this is the OK St. team that got blown out 45-3 by UCF just a couple of weeks ago. 

 

Oklahoma and K-St. will need a lot more help. The Sooners will have to win their matchup against TCU, then would need a Texas win and an Oklahoma State loss to get the tiebreakers. Meanwhile, Kansas State has to win their season finale against Iowa State, followed by a Texas win and losses by both Oklahoma teams. Smart money is on everything going according to plan and we get The Longhorns vs The Cowboys in the Big 12 title game. However, on behalf of all college football fans, I can say that we are hoping for Red River Shootout part deux.

The Pac 12

Not as many possible outcomes in what will be the final Pac-12 Championship game before the conference disintegrates into dust. Washington is already in after their win over Oregon St. last week. Joining them in that game will most likely be Oregon looking to avenge their loss to The Huskie from earlier in the season. 

 

However, there is one more team technically in play. Even though they have three overall losses on the year, The Arizona Wildcats have only two conference losses. Before Arizona cashes my -13.5 bet and beats Arizona State, the fate of their outside hopes of making the title game will lie in the hands of the Oregon State Beavers. If they can upset Oregon in their rivalry game it would leave The Ducks and Wildcats tied. 

 

Since the two teams haven’t played each other it goes to the next tie-breaker which is the winning percentage vs common opponents based on the order of finish. In layman’s terms, teams they both played from the top down of the Pac-12 standings. They both lost to Washington, so it would then go to Oregon State, who Arizona beat and in this universe, Oregon would have lost to. Oregon vs Washington is the better outcome, especially if you are looking for the more chaotic outcome in the final playoff rankings. 

 

However, imagine how awesome it would be if this Zona team that came back to life mid-season finished the season on a six-game win streak, made the title game, won the Pac 12 championship, and handed The Huskies their first loss of the season dashing their playoff hopes! Uh oh. I think the Fifita Fever is starting to affect my brain. 

Game Of The Week:

#2 Ohio St. at #3 Michigan

Here. We. Go. Every year, especially when the teams are considered possible title contenders, this game is circled on the calendar before the season even starts. The Hawkeyes have already clinched the football playing klonopin that is the Big Ten West. They will be ready and waiting to lose by 24 to the winner of this game in the conference championship game. That aspect of this outcome obviously is not the important thing on the line in this game. After the dust settles in this game, one of these teams will see their playoff hopes in a chalk outline. 

 

Just mere weeks ago, I thought this game was a hands-down Michigan win. By multiple scores if I’m being honest. However, after The Wolverines’ performance over the past couple of weeks, I’m not so sure anymore. Whether looking at stats, PFF grades, or more advanced analytics such as EPA, Michigan is ahead of Ohio State in most categories. However, you do have to take into account the early stretch of the season where Michigan was dog-walking lesser competition and how that could be affecting the numbers.

 

By a show of hands, did you find Ohio State vs Penn State and Michigan vs Penn State super entertaining games? No? Well too bad, you’re getting act three in this one. Unless Michigan has spent the past two weeks hiding their passing attack in preparations for this game. This is highly doubtful, but would be some next-level “I’ve only been using 50% of my power” anime villain kind of stuff. 

 

As I mentioned a moment ago, I won’t be surprised if these teams lean on their top-tier defensive units and the offensive play calling will fall into the conservative style we saw when each team faced the Nittany Lions. It begs the question, of which offensive coordinator will ignore the fear of mistakes or turnovers and take a shot. If I’m predicting which team will be the first one to take that risk, it’s going to be Ohio State. One of the areas where Ohio State has performed better on paper over the Wolverines has been passing the ball. That’s by the basic numbers and EPA per play. The entire reason for that is Marvin Harrison Jr. and he will be the key for the Buckeyes to win this game. Line up both of these teams and ask one question. Which team has the best player on offense? It’s OSU by a mile. Even in the rare moments where Penn State was willing to take a shot against the Wolverine defense they didn’t have the player who could make that happen. The Buckeyes do.

I don’t want to shortchange the Michigan secondary. They’re the third highest-graded coverage group in the FBS and will be just as tough of a challenge for Ohio State as Notre Dame and Penn State. Will they be able to slow down Harrison though? I’ll just point out that Penn St. CB and future first-round pick, Kalen King, got burned for five catches on six targets, four first downs, and 87 yards by The Buckeyes’ star player. 

 

Running back TreVeyon Henderson is having a great season, but everybody knows that, and Michigan’s defensive front that allows less than 100 yards a game on the ground will be ready for him. This game is the season for both of these teams. Ohio State can’t be scared and play into the style of game that they did against the Nittany Lions. You have the best player on the field. Throw it up and let MHJ cook. 

 

We haven’t seen Michigan with their backs against the wall all season. This Saturday very well may be the first time we do. That moment will answer a lot of questions for us. Can JJ McCarthy make the big throw when called upon? Does UM have the skill position talent to win a national title? Did Conor Stalions take the signals with him when he left? Has Jim Hardbaugh already had his interview with the Chicago Bears? 

 

JJ McCarthy doesn’t have the track record of being that guy and his performance last week against Maryland was not a good indication of him being that guy this year. It’s a cop-out answer, but until proven otherwise I’m not betting on him in a situation where Michigan doesn’t have control of the game. 

 

The Wolverines do have some nice pass-catchers like Roman Wilson, who’s found the endzone ten times this season, but they don’t have that game-changing player. Georgia has Brock Bowers, Washington has Rome Odunze, and as I’ve hammered constantly in this segment, The Buckeyes have MHJ. I don’t see that kind of player on the UM roster. As for the other two questions. 

 

How do we know Stalions has really left? He’s a master of disguise. Also, I was just joking about Harbaugh interviewing with the Bears, because he wouldn’t have to interview. Chicago has a Gruden-sized contract ready to go in the event Harbaugh actually answers their phone call. 

 

Time to plant my flag in the ground for this game and wrap this column up. The game will be in Ann Arbor and Michigan is currently favored by 3.5. The Michigan vs Penn St line closed at -4 and I am surprised this line is currently so similar. I’ve been outspoken about The Wolverines being better than Ohio State all season, and while my stance has softened, have the last two weeks been concerning enough to make me jump the Big Blue ship?

 

Call me Harvey Dent, because I’m two-faced. I’ve flipped and I’m calling for a Buckeye win on the road over Michigan. 

 

In my defense, I said in the past that Ohio State couldn’t win a national title. I still believe that. The only difference now is that I no longer think Michigan can either. Not having Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines for any of the other 11 games this season isn’t a problem. In this game, it could be a problem. In general, all the drama surrounding the organization this season has to take a toll on this team at some point and I think those cracks began to show last week. In the end, Ohio State will have the best player on the field. All they’ll need is a lead in the fourth forcing UM into a corner. If The Wolverines rise to the occasion, I’ll be the first person to admit I was wrong, but for now, I don’t think they have it in them.