On Saturday W/ Mike Regan: Week 11 Review, Week 12 Preview
The only things that are certain in life: are death, taxes, and my weekly On Saturday column.
Week 11 had some close calls, some statement wins, and Penn St. once again attempted to put us to sleep before the noon slate of games even ended. We only have two weeks left in the regular season. This is when the chaos usually arrives and the weird upsets happen. Tell Alabama to be on guard this week against Chattanooga.
Before we get into the week 12 matchups though, as always we have to look back on what went down this past Saturday.
Week 11 TL;DR
Michigan Finally Puts a Big Win on the Resume.
It never felt like Michigan might lose, but they in no way dominated Penn St. the way I expected. It was as if the two teams watched the Ohio St. vs Penn St. game and decided to reenact it. Just like the game that took place in Columbus last month, this game was low scoring, run heavy, and defensively dominated. Just like the Buckeyes, Michigan even let the Nittany Lions score a garbage time touchdown to make the score a more respectable 24-15.
I can’t explain why, but Michigan only had QB JJ McCarthy throw the ball eight times,
But it worked.
They opted to just feed their RBs Jake Corum and Donovan Edwards. The Wolverine duo combined for 197 yards and 3 touchdowns. With Harbaugh suspended, UM offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore handled head coaching duties. Moore was emotional after getting the win. He gave an on field interview after the game that, if you weren’t aware of the situation, would make you think Jim Harbaugh had died.
"Coach Harbaugh... I love the sh*t out of you, man. I did this for you."
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 11, 2023
Michigan's interim HC Sherrone Moore was in tears after his first W 🥹 pic.twitter.com/UiyGXvF0KH
No One, Besides Texas, Wants to Win the Big 12.
A week after their big win in the Bedlam finale, Oklahoma St. got completely embarrassed on the road against UCF 45-3. They looked more like the Cowboys team that started the year 2-2 and lost to Southern Alabama.
They turned the ball over four times and only managed to total 277 yards of total offense. Kansas also fumbled the bag. Despite putting up 207 yards on the ground, they still appeared offensively inept in a 16-13 upset to Texas Tech. Thanks to tie breakers, Ok St. remains second in the Big 12 and just needs to win their last two games to make the title game. For god’s sake though, can a team in the Big 12 that doesn’t wear burnt orange convince me they are good?
Oregon Stays Dominant Against USC
Oregon continues to look like the best team in the Pac-12, and a playoff team. A week after USC scored 42 points against fifth ranked Washington, the sixth ranked Ducks only gave up 27 to the Trojans.
Bo Nix took the lead in the Heisman race, as he went 23-31 for 412 yds and 4 touchdowns. I’ve often heard people use the term “piss missile” to describe a throw. I’m not entirely sure what it means, but I’m pretty sure this TD pass is one.
Another one! 😤
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 12, 2023
Nix finds Ferguson for the @oregonfootball TD 💪 pic.twitter.com/InaLNtf0Hj
The Almost Upsets.
#7 Texas once again forgot that a football game is 60 minutes. They walked into the fourth quarter up 26-6, and then let the Horned Frogs score 20 in the fourth. Luckily for Longhorn fans, their team managed a field goal during the TCU dominated quarter to give them the slim 29-26 win. Unfortunately for those same fans, it was announced this week that they will be without star running back, Jonathan Brooks, for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL.
#4 Florida St. started slow against the visiting Miami Hurricanes and even found themselves losing 13-10 early in the third quarter. However, against a very good Hurricanes defense, Jordan Travis took the Florida St. offense on a 17-0 run to get control of the game. Miami had the ball down 20-27 with roughly four minutes left and a chance to go tie the game. In an awkward moment QB Tyler Van Dyke who was benched earlier in the week, ended up back in the game after starter Emory Williams was forced out with an injury. Van Dyke is no Josh Dobbs though. There were no off the bench heroics as he threw the game sealing interception on fourth and ten.
#5 Washington Huskies deserve credit. The games haven’t been pretty, but they keep surviving. Michael Penix and his Squad were down 28-24 at half time to the offensive juggernauts, the Utah Utes. A field goal cut the lead to one, and then Penix threw a frozen rope to his favorite target, Rome Odunze, to get the lead.
ROME ODUNZE DOES IT AGAIN
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 11, 2023
And what a DART from Michael Penix Jr. to put @UW_Football back on top 🔥 pic.twitter.com/D9ehM1f9wT
The two point try would be unsuccessful, but the Huskie defense would come up with a safety late in the third to increase the lead to 35-28. That’s where it would stay. The Utah offense had a couple more drives in the fourth to try and tie the game, but come on people, it’s the Utes.
Jimbo Fisher, Greatest Businessman Ever?
Despite a big 51-10 win against Mississippi St. this past Saturday to improve to 6-4 on the year, Texas A&M fired Jimbo Fisher Sunday morning. The reason why this didn’t happen sooner, most likely, is because A&M’s athletic department had to make sure they could get the funds together to do so.
What I mean by, “get the funds together” is making sure they could handle the $77 million buyout that would follow. Per the buyout written in his contract, 25% of that is due 60 days after his termination. At some point in the next two months The Aggies will give Fisher a check for over 19 million dollars.
The next payment will happen 120 days from the date of his firing and will be the first of the annual payments that will have to take place from now until when his deal was supposed to expire in 2031. Props to Fisher for figuring out the route to generational wealth. Become a good enough college coach that a desperate team will give you a ridiculously expensive contract that includes an equally ridiculous buy out.
I do feel compelled to point something out. Many believe NIL needs to be regulated. With the opinion that it’s gotten out of hand, and schools are basically paying for players in a way that’s not much different from pro sports. While I can understand that sentiment, I have to wonder if any of those people see anything wrong with the Jimbo Fisher deal.
College Football Playoff Rankings
The CFP committee did right one wrong by having Georgia jump Ohio St. to take over number one. However, other than that, the top eight remained the same. I imagine part of the committee’s meetings are spent praying to whatever deity they believe in for some upsets over the next two weeks and for no upsets in conference title games.
Imagine if Bama beats Georgia in the SEC title game, Oregon ends up beating Washington in the PAC 12 title game, and whichever team that wins between Michigan and Ohio St. in Week 13 miraculously gets upset in the Big Ten title game?
Including Texas who should win the Big 12, that would leave the committee with seven one loss teams from power five conferences with cases to be in the playoffs. Plus, they would still have to figure out what to do with a Florida St. team who is in a weak conference and their only premiere win is against LSU, which is worth much less than it once was. That’s all hypothetical fantasy booking on my part. Let’s look at where they have things right now.
Top Six
#1 Georgia(10-0)
#2 Ohio St.(10-0)
#3 Michigan(10-0)
#4 Florida State(10-0)
#5 Washington(10-0)
#6 Oregon(9-1)
The Wrong
Alabama Still at #8
I know Texas has the head to head win, but I’m done considering that a valid argument. Kentucky isn’t as impressive of a win as it was earlier in the year, but Bama dominated them. Meanwhile, Texas once again took their foot of the gas and let a win slip away. They blew their lead against a subpar TCU team a week after falling apart against Kansas St. and having to go to overtime. Alabam should’ve at least jumped Texas, and there’s a case they should be up to six.
Tulane #24
I’m a big Michael Pratt guy, and think he is a very interesting QB prospect in the 2025 NFL draft. He looks to me like a guy who could be a mid round steal, similar to Russel Wilson or Dak Prescott.
However, this opinion is about looking at Tulane as a whole. It’s not easy for a Group of Five team to get in the CFP Top 25. Expectations were high this year after they won The American Conference last season, were ranked 16th in the final CFP rankings, and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl. As someone who was a big fan of the Green Wave coming into the year, I hate to say this, but they have failed to meet those expectations.
In their past four games they were double digit favorites. In all four they failed to beat the spread and only won by one score. They weren’t facing the cream of the crop either. They beat 3-3 North Texas in a 35-28 shootout, and got a slim two point victory against 4-3 Rice. Then it gets worse. Their last two were a three point win over 1-7 East Carolina, and having to hold on to win 24-22 against 3-6 Tulsa. Their only loss was to Ole Miss in a game Michael Pratt missed because of a Knee injury, so you can’t hold that against them, but in order to be ranked as a Group of Five team, you can’t struggle against the level of opponents they have over the past month.
The Disagreeable, but Understandable
#5 Washington still ahead of #6 Oregon
I mentioned this one in my review of the first rankings. Washington is an undefeated power five team and they beat Oregon. I still accept that as an explanation, but I’m starting to sour on it.
The Huskies have had to fight to survive and avoid an upset in four straight games since they beat Oregon. One score wins over basement Pac-12 teams like Arizona St. and Stanford aren’t defensible. Utah has a very good defense, and USC a strong offense. So there’s a case to be made with those close calls. However, that case is weakened when you factor in how strong Oregon played against those teams compared to Washington.
Oregon is the better team right now. I still won’t put this in the wrong category for now, because it’s a situation that will sort itself out. Barring anything crazy happening over the next two weeks, these teams will meet again in the Pac-12 championship and life finds a way in those situations.
The Correct
Missouri in the Top Ten
Mizzouuuuuuu! There are three SEC teams in the top ten: #1 Georgia, #8 Alabama, and #9 Missouri. By that logic, Missouri is the third best team in the SEC.
Is that true?
When they played strong and hung around against Georgia, they got a lot of respect from people who weren’t taking them seriously. Their dominant 36-7 over Tennessee this past Saturday showed many how good they are, especially defensively.
The Volunteers have averaged over 200 yards on the ground and the Tigers held them to 83. Mizzou star WR Luther Burden did play after suffering an ankle injury the prior week, but it seemed offensive coordinator Kirby Moore didn’t feel they could lean on him as much as they usually would.
Instead they turned to running back Corey Schrader, who has played great all year, but absolutely exploded in this one. He put up 205 yards and a touchdown on the ground at an efficient 5.9 an attempt. He was also Brady Cook’s favorite target. He caught all five of his targets for 116 yds, with 84 of that yardage being after the catch. It’s no surprise he was named a finalist for the Burlsworth Award, which is given to “college football’s most outstanding player who began his career as a walk-on.”
How We Did on the Books
Another week going 2-2. Average and sad. Even worse, the two bets I hit were minus odds. So despite going 2-2, I was guaranteed to be in the red anyways. The real kick in the knackers this week is that on my two bets that hit, I alt spread them to plus odds when I actually bet them. I really could’ve used those plus odds so the spreadsheet tracking these bets will stop looking like a BlockBuster quarterly report.
Week 11 Bets
#3 Michigan(-4.5) at #10 Penn St.
Final Score: Michigan 24-15
Once again, this was far from the dominant Wolverine win than I predicted, but, Michigan won by two scores so technically I was right. UM abandoned the pass to such an extent that it left people trying to figure out if they did it because they couldn’t throw the ball on the Nittany Lions defense or just had no need to. This changed my opinion on The Wolverines. I still believe they are solidly better than Ohio State, but the gap is smaller than I once thought.
#8 Alabama(-10.5 Odds:-115) at Kentucky
Final Score: Alabama 49-21
Jalen “Six Tuddy’s” Milroe broke the Alabama record for touchdowns in a game. There’s only one thing to say. Roll damn Tide.
Boston College (ML Odds -102) vs Virginia Tech
Final Score: VA Tech 48-22
The real question coming out of this one is why I continued to check the score after The Hokies were up 31-7 at half.
Texas Tech at #19 Kansas (Over 63.5 +104)
Final Score: Texas Tech 16-13
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. With that said, I’m done with the Big 12.
When I take time to look into a team’s defense, it doesn’t matter and the game becomes a shoot out. When I accept that, and decide to ignore all defensive stats, teams forget how to complete a forward pass. From this moment forward, betting on any Big 12 conference game is banned.
Where My Money is Going this Week
After last week the question entered my mind of why I even do this? I even considered for a moment that I should pack it in and quit. But what example would I be setting for future generations?
Think about the children!
In the crazy world we live in, the kids need someone like me as a role model. Someone to show them that no matter how many times you get knocked down, you get back up, and deposit more money into your account.
#17 Arizona(Alt spread -1.5) vs #22 Utah
Odds: +104
Despite being at home and ranked higher, Arizona is currently a 1.5 point dog. You could play it safer and go with Zona ML at -102, however, why not just flip the spread for plus money?
Utah’s defense is good, but when they face top offenses they’ve been vulnerable. They gave up 33 offensive points to Washington, 35 to Oregon, and 27 to USC.
How different is that than Arizona’s defense? The only times the Wildcats defense has gotten gashed were also against the top Pac-12 top offenses. They gave up 31 to Colorado, 43 to USC, and 31 to Washington.
So the big question is, whether or not Arizona has the caliber offense that can score on Utah. The answer is a resounding yes. Have you heard me talk about Fifita fever? The Zona offense has been on fire. On top of what they’ve been able to do through the air, they have the ninth graded run game per PFF in the entire FBS. It will be the same story it has been all year when the Utes face a team with a good offense and solid defense. They just won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
#1 Georgia(-10.5) at #18 Tennessee
Odds: -110
What win on Tennessee’s resume makes you think they are equipped to keep this game close? Was it the one score win at home against Texas A & M, who are currently 6-4 and just fired their head coach?
Every opponent that both these teams have faced this season has had completely different outcomes:
The Volunteers beat Kentucky 33-27. The Bulldogs dragged them through the dirt 51-13.
Georgia handled Florida in a 43-20 victory, meanwhile Tennessee lost 29-16.
Most recently, Tennessee got blown out 36-7 by the same Mizzou team that Georgia beat.
The Volunteers are an average SEC team up against a championship caliber squad that is better in every facet of the game. I’m playing it conservative just laying the 10.5 due to the potential for garbage time points, but there’s an argument could be made for alt spreading Georgia to a two touchdown favorite.
#10 Louisville(Alt Spread -2.5) at Miami
Odds: +108
As much of a down year as it has been overall for the ACC, the conference does play host to some very good defensive teams. These are two of the teams towards the top of the conference. This is actually one of the surprising cases where both these teams are 2nd and 3rd based on PFF grade as well as basic stats such as per game yardage allowed. Louisville has a slight edge over the Hurricanes in both cases. Obviously based on the track record of these defenses this season, I don’t expect this to be a high scoring game and neither do the books. The over under is currently set at 46.5.
What tilts the scales in this game is the quarterback play for Miami. Tyler Van Dyke has struggled with turnovers all season. He has 12 interceptions on the year, and 10 of them came in his last four starts. His play fell to a point where he got benched in favor of Emory Williams for the Florida St. game. He did come into the game for the injured Williams on the Hurricanes final drive of the game. That drive ended with Van Dyke throwing an interception on fourth down. However, it’s been announced that Emory Williams is done for the season due to the arm injury. The turnover trouble Van Dyke has had mixed in with a Louisville secondary that has nine picks on the year is not a combination if you’re a Miami fan.
I’m not sold on Louisville, and don’t expect them to blow out a Miami team that just held its own against Florida state. However, even if its low scoring and close, Louisvilles is at least three points better.
#5 Washington(ML) at #11 Oregon St.
Odds: +114
I don’t have any in-depth explanation on This one, it’s just too juicy to not bet.
Washington has looked vulnerable week after week. They now go on the road to face a one loss team that’s ranked 11th in the nation. Oregon St. just hung 62 on Stanford, albeit Stanford is terrible, but it’s still impressive nonetheless. Stanford is also one of the teams The Huskies had to fight to survive against. It makes complete sense that bettors would be calling for the upset.
That’s why I can’t resist it.
The narrative has set up a scenario for the 5th ranked team in the country to have plus odds. I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. I’m staying the hell away from any kind of spread. This game will be high scoring and full of lead changes. If it’s plus odds though, give me Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies to pull another one out of the hat.
Game(s) of the Week
I decided to change it up a little bit this week. Instead of focusing in depth on one single game, I’m going to highlight a game in each time slot. That’s one for noon, afternoon, and one at night. I have to go off the beaten path for some of these picks, because I don’t want to repeat myself by talking about games I covered in my betting picks. Plus, if it’s one of my picks, you’re going to trail me, so you’ll be watching it anyways. Right?
Noon: SMU(8-2) at Memphis(8-2)
Right off the bat I regret saying I wouldn’t repeat games I talked about in my featured bets. Remove Louisville at Miami from the noon kickoff slate and its slim pickings. Unless Oklahoma facing the 24 point underdog BYU Cougars really gets you going.
A game I’ll have going on one of my screens will be this showdown between The Mustangs and The Tigers. Tulane is probably the most known team in the American conference because they are ranked, and UCF is no longer in the conference. However, this game features two good teams who are fighting to face Tulane in the American Conference Championship.
SMU in particular deserves more attention. I’d go as far as to say The Mustangs are more deserving of a ranking than the Green Wave. Based on the numbers SMU has the best offense and the best defense in the American by a solid margin.
The one thing Tulane has over SMU is their overall record (They both are 6-0 in conference play). Southern Methodist has two losses, but that’s because they had two Power Five opponents on their schedule, TCU and Oklahoma, compared to Tulane’s one.
Meanwhile, The Mustangs haven’t played with their food. They have dominated the rest of the competition they’ve faced. In their eight wins, SMU has a single win by one score and have an average margin of victory of 34 points.
These Mustangs deserve more respect. Am I turning my back on the Green Wave? Am I a SMU guy now?
Afternoon: UCLA(6-4) at USC(7-4)
This will be USC’s final game of the regular season and I’m sure many USC fans are glad to finally put this let down of a season to rest. They should savor it though, as this will most likely be Caleb Williams last time playing in LA Memorial Coliseum. It possibly could be his last game for the Trojans period, depending if he decides to follow the trend of sitting out bowl games prior to the draft.
Standing in the way of USC finishing the regular season on a high note are the UCLA Bruins. Laiatu Latu vs Caleb Williams. UCLA has the best defense in the Pac-12 and a top ten defense in the nation. Their offense, on the other hand, doesn’t exactly strike fear into their opponents.
The only team it probably does strike fear into are the Trojans. However, with the way the USC defense has performed this year, a JV high school team probably strikes fear into them. Southern Cal gives up almost 200 yards a game on the ground, so it will be no surprise for UCLA to lean on their two headed running attack of TJ Harden and Carson Steeles.
Who knows though, no matter how bad of a pass game a team has, playing USC might be the time to mess around and start slinging it.
This game will come down to how many points the Trojans give up to a bad offense and whether or not their Caleb Williams led offense can put up more. No matter what Williams does, if they lose, people will put it on him. Still, it’s a rivalry game and the potential swan song for Williams at the collegiate level. That alone makes it a must watch.
Night: #7 Texas at Iowa St.
Iowa state has been somewhat of a kryptonite for Texas in recent years. The cyclones beat the Longhorns three straight seasons from 2019-2021, and even last season, Texas only managed to slide by with a 24-21 win. The way Steve Sarkisian’s team has taken their foot off the gas pedal and blown leads to lesser teams adds intrigue to this one. Also, it’s the Big 12, it’s weird. Upsets happen every week.
Texas has some terrible luck. In the same game starting QB Quinn Ewers returned, star RB Johnathan Brooks suffered a torn ACL. There is some force in the universe that refuses to let Texas be back.
In Brooks absence, the Longhorns will turn to the five star recruit freshman, CJ Baxter. Baxter has been up and down this year in a limited role. Even with increased reps, it’s a lot to ask of him to replace Brooks’ 6.1 yards a carry, 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns. We could see Sarkisian mix in some touches for sophomore Jaydon Blue and ride the hot hand on a per game basis.
There’s no such thing as good timing when it comes to losing a star on offense, but the timing here is particularly rough. Texas will be facing a defense that only gives up 19.9 points per game. With an inexperienced back in his first game as a starter, you figure Sark would lean more on Quinn Ewers and the passing game. The issue with that plan is that Iowa State has a great coverage group. Graded ninth out of all 133 FBS schools, the Cyclones have 15 picks on the season. Leading the way is sophomore Jermiah Cooper who has 6 pass break ups, hasn’t allowed a touchdown all year, and has 5 interceptions. He’s only played 8 games. The man is averaging 0.6 int’s per game.
I’ll describe Cooper in two words. Gimme Dat.
.@jeremiah1cooper house call 👀
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 2, 2023
🌪🚨🌪 pic.twitter.com/sPrdXqrJqm
Missing star player, recently underperforming, facing a tough defense, and on the road against a team who’s had your number in the past. All the makings are there for a potential upset.
