On Saturday W/ Mike Regan: Transfer Portal and Bowl Bets
Like 1994 Birmingham Bulls legend Michael Jordan once said, “I’m Back.” I apologize to all the devoted On Saturday readers for the column hiatus the past two weeks. After going 7-3 on my conference championship bets, and getting the On Saturday betting spreadsheet into the black, I immediately went to Vegas. It was a long two week bender. I lost all my money playing blackjack and attempting to count cards. Turns out, I have no idea how to do that. Dustin Hoffman made it look so easy. After that, I met these guys named Raul Duke and Dr. Gonzo who were cruising around in a red ‘73 Chevy Caprice. They seemed cool, so I hopped in the car and partied with them. I don’t remember much of what happened after that, but I think we drove through some place called Bat Country.
The important thing is that I’m back now. A Lot has happened since the last edition of this column. The playoffs are set, bowl season is underway, and the transfer portal is going wild. Unfortunately, because there’s so much to get into, I don’t have time to do a review of the conference title games. Instead, I decided to do a quick recap of the headlines from conference championship weekend via memes.
Transfer Portal Quarterbacks
The official fall transfer portal window swung open on December 4th and will stay open until January 2nd. Over a thousand players across the different levels of college football flooded the portal looking for a new place to call home next season. There has been and will continue to be, plenty of news worth covering over the next few weeks. Let’s start by taking a look at a handful of the notable names that have moved. No better place to start, than with the most valuable position in football.
Oregon Double Dips
With Bo Nix NFL draft bound it was obvious Dan Lanning and the Ducks would need a new starting QB for next season. Good teams in this situation usually do one of two things: They have a top recruit ready to step in, or they hit the transfer portal. You could argue Oregon did both.
First, they secured their starter for next season in Oklahoma starting QB Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel is familiar with the transfer process. The Mililani Hawaii native spent his first three college years at UCF. After a knee injury ended his 2021 season prematurely he chose to enter the portal before deciding to commit to Oklahoma and become the starting QB of the Sooners. This time he entered the portal as a graduate transfer. He will now spend his sixth and final year of eligibility taking snaps for Oregon. The conversation around whether or not Gabriel is a future NFL QB hasn’t been promising, but he has performed very well at the collegiate level. Over his college career, he has thrown for almost 15000 yards, 125 touchdowns, and only 26 interceptions. While playing in Norman he added an impact with his legs, running for 871 yards and 18 touchdowns in the past two seasons. Bringing Gabriel on board is a smart move by Oregon. The program still expects to be a contender and this allows them to have a smoother transition out of the Bo Nix era than they would have with an unproven commodity. Gabriel starting this season also gives the team time to get this next transfer portal commit ready to take things over.
After getting a QB for next year, Oregon went back to the portal to get their starting QB for two years from now with UCLA transfer Dante Moore. The third-ranked QB in the 2023 recruiting class was a five-star prospect coming out of Martin Luther King HS in Detroit. This could be seen as Moore rectifying a past mistake. He originally committed to Oregon before Chip Kelly wooed him away to UCLA. His freshman season was a whirlwind. Kelly seemed incapable of deciding on who would be his team’s QB as Moore split time with the returning Ethan Garbers. The flip-flopping was sometimes due to injury, but for the most part, it was Chip bouncing back and forth trying to find some consistency. Moore finished his first season with 1610 yards, 11 TDs, and 9 INTs on 53.3% passing.
From the outside, this appears like a player looking for a stable situation to best help him grow into the QB he and many recruiters expected. Following his decision Moore told 247sports, “For these next upcoming years, I just want to go to a place where I can get developed… and having a staff around you that’s going to help develop you.”
Third Times the Charm for The Irish?
For the third straight year, Notre Dame opted to grab a veteran QB from the portal as they continue attempting to break through and go from a good team to a contending one. First, it was Wisconsin’s QB Jack Coan, last season it was the dashingly handsome Sam Hartman from Wake Forest, and now its dual-threat Duke QB Riley Leonard.
Leonard is far from the only Blue Devil to hit the portal this year. Fueled by head coach Mike Elko leaving to take the vacant HC job at Texas A&M, a total of eleven Duke players have now entered the transfer portal. Among them, Leonard was considered one of the top QBs available. 6 ‘4” 212lb, the Alabama native had a breakout season in 2022. He had 2,951 yards passing and 20 touchdowns. He also played a big part in the run game racking up 776 yds and 13 TDs. He helped lead the Blue Devils to a big turnaround season as they went 8-4 after going 3-9 the previous year. Unfortunately, it was a rough 2023 for Leonard. While he did start seven games, he left multiple games early with an injury and never seemed to be healthy throughout the year.
The mobility and familiarity with the short passing run heavy mesh offense he ran at Duke will fit nicely with the Notre Dame Offense. In the past two seasons, Mike Freeman and the Irish have run the ball on more plays than dropping back to pass.
Washington Prepares for post-Penix Life
Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. has been sensational over his two seasons with the Huskies. However, after the playoffs wrap up Penix will be NFL draft bound. Even with his departure, Washington will be looking to be a playoff team next season. The Huskies opted to look in the portal for a veteran QB. They found that vet in Mississippi State’s Will Rogers.
It was a drastic change in environment for Rogers this season. The Mississippi native experienced a lot of success in head coach Mike Leach’s air raid offense. From ‘21-’22 Rogers threw for a total of 8,642 yards and 71 touchdowns in 26 games. Following the tragic and sudden passing of Mike Leach in December 2022, then-defensive coordinator Zach Arnett was promoted to head coach. Leach recruited and built his team to fit his pass-heavy offense. However, for reasons that may never be explained, Arnett took over as HC and decided, “We’re a tough-nosed run team now. Deal with it.” The results were not great. Not only did the change of direction drop the number of passing plays from 676 to 394, but it also reduced the number of wins. Under Leach The Bulldogs were showing improvement, posting a 7-6 record in ‘21 followed by a 8-4 record in ‘22. Arnett and his 180-degree change on offense helped take them to a 5-7 record this past season.
Rogers will feel much more comfortable in The Huskie offense. While he may not have the deep ball arm talent of Penix, he is a proven veteran. Washington Head Coach Peter Deboar and his coaching staff will need to get Rogers back to where he was before 2023 as they enter what will be an extremely competitive Big Ten in 2024.
Kyle McCord to. . .Syracuse?
Some tilted their head when it was announced Kyle McCord was leaving Ohio St. and entering the transfer portal. Can you blame him though? McCord stepped into an unwinnable situation this season. The previous three starting QBs before him were CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, and Dwayne Haskins. That was the level of QB play he was being compared to. All year he had to hear the talk of how he was a key weakness holding the team back. Some made it sound as if McCord was struggling mightily when in reality he was fine. The Philadelphia native finished his first season as a starter completing 64.7% of his passes for over 3100 yards and 24 TDs to 6 INTs. He played better than many of his peers in college football. But Buckeye fans were comparing him to the likes of Stroud who threw for over 3600 yards, and 41 TDs in his senior year.
On top of the bar being set extremely high, it was widely known that Ryan Day and Ohio St. were planning to examine their options under center this offseason. Whether that be a QB already on the team or one in the portal McCord may have been looking for some sign of commitment from the team before making this decision. Some reports claimed the signal caller wanted to be guaranteed to start in their upcoming bowl game versus Mizzou, as well as the starting job next season and potentially more NIL money. I give credit to McCord for knowing what he felt his value was, but that was a high ask for a program with the caliber of expectations of Ohio State. Any QB in his position that shows the slightest sign of hindering the Buckeyes’ chances of beating Michigan or winning a national title would find themselves on the hot seat.
When news broke of McCord committing to Syracuse many viewed it as an indictment of the now-former Ohio State QB. Joining an ACC basement dweller was interpreted to mean no high-level program was interested in the former four-star recruit. However, there’s a more positive headline within this decision. Nice job Syracuse. Following a rough season where the Orange went 2-6 in conference play, the decision was made to move on from head coach Dino Barbers. In his place, Cuse hired Fran Brown who spent the 2023 season as the defensive backs coach for The Georgia Bulldogs. The Bulldogs’ defense ranked 12th in the FBS this season, only allowing 177 yards per game through the air. Brown, a first-time head coach, has now made a very good first impression when it comes to recruiting. No matter your opinion on McCord, Brown just managed to get a QB who went 11-1 while playing for one of the biggest college football programs in the country.
Bowl Season Bets
Forget Christmas season, it is bowl season. There’s a reason Bowl games overlap with the holidays. It’s so when your family gets on your nerves you can tell them to leave you alone so you can watch Georgia St. play Utah St. in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. No, I don’t want to go look at some stupid Christmas lights, I want to watch USF blank Syracuse 45-0 in the Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl! As a Christmas gift to all my On Saturdays fans, I’ve got some Holly Jolly bets on bowl games that will take place before next week’s column.
Check out my betting spreadsheet here.
James Madison(11-1) vs Air Force(8-4)
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Ignore the records, this is a battle of losers. Air Force started the season a perfect 8-0 and then finished it by losing four in a row. Meanwhile, JMU lost head coach Curt Cignetti who took the vacant head coaching job at Indiana. It feels as though every year there’s a good team that loses their head coach prior to their bowl game. These teams come into their game fired up and ready to prove they are still legit despite their HC leaving for a bigger program. Then they get blown out. Not in this game though. The Dukes are just a better football team in every facet of the game compared to Air Force. JMU opened as a three-point favorite and that has now shrunk to -1.5. Put all the Christmas money your grandma gave you on this one.
JMU -1.5 (-110)
South Alabama(6-6) vs Eastern Michigan(6-6)
68 Ventures Bowl
South Bama is a 17.5 point favorite in this game. Which begs the age old question, what does Vegas know that I don’t? Here’s what I do know. The Jags starting QB Carter Bradley is still questionable after re aggravating a knee injury. Their leading RB La’Damian Webb is out with a toe injury and their top wideout Caulin Lacy is headed to Louisville after entering the transfer portal. Eastern Michigan has struggled offensively this season, but when you factor in who won’t be on the field for South Bama, I feel confident they can avoid losing by three scores. As a matter of fact, I feel so confident that I’m going to pull out my signature betting move and alt spread this to plus odds.
Eastern Michigan +15.5 (+104)
Utah(8-4) vs Northwestern(7-5)
Las Vegas Bowl
Let’s pause for a moment to give flowers to Northwestern. They went an abysmal 1-11 last season and had to fire longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald in the aftermath of a hazing scandal. All signs pointed to another miserable year for the Wildcats. Instead, after a 3-4 start, they won four of their last five and finished the season 7-5. Meanwhile, their opponent, Utah, has struggled down the stretch with a multitude of injuries. On top of that, they will be without key players such as DB Cole Bishop and safety Sione Vaki as they prepare for the NFL draft. A team that’s short-staffed vs a team that’s been hot.
There are two bets in this game I like. So you know what that means? It’s time for my first parlay of Bowl season. Nothing crazy, just a simple and boring two-legger. Part one is the spread. Northwestern is a 6.5-point underdog. If The Utes were at full strength that would be an easy cover for them, but with all the missing pieces it is a more even matchup. Part two, this game will be boring. Both of these teams struggle to put up points against any team with a competent defense. Both of them finished the year averaging under 25 points a game. This matchup will be filled with run plays and playing field position as the clock continues to tick down. The Utes and Northwestern each hit the under in half of their games this year. This will be number lucky number seven.
Northwestern+6.5 & Under 41.5 (+222)
That’ll do it for this week. Have a Happy Holiday everybody. My Next column will be up in a few days as the Bowl games ramp up and we get to the good ones. Like the Pop Tart bowl. Why are you laughing? Not only is that a real thing, it’s even going to have an edible mascot.
