On Saturday – Week 1 Preview and Bets
The college football appetizer of Week Zero is in the books and it’s time for all college programs to kick their season off. Week One, as always, is a mixed bag. The majority of teams have scheduled a massive underdog or FCS opponent as an easy win to start the season on a high note. Utah versus Southern Utah is surely going to be a banger huh? Or maybe a little battle between Number Six in the Nation Ole Miss and Furman will get you going? Can 48.5-point favorite Ohio State defeat the goliath Akron Zips? Lopsided matchups aside, there’s still a slate of must-see games and worthwhile matchups to highlight.
Week 1 also means it’s time to break open the secret checking account you keep from your family and get back to betting on college football. Last season Talent Alone co-founder and editor of this very column, Adam Hess, managed a lovely spreadsheet to keep track of all my weekly On Saturday bets. I am proud to humbly remind everyone that I finished last year in the black. Unfortunately, I have since blown all that money on Tim Hortons and smuggling All Dressed chips across the border. Now I find myself down a nut and must begin the journey back to the top of the mountain. Today I have six games to highlight, each accompanied with a 100% lock of a bet to be placed. Let’s get to it.
What to Watch In College Football Week One
#7 Notre Dame at #20 Texas A&M
Notre Dame is ranked a decent bit higher than A & M in the preseason rankings, yet they are currently 2.5-point underdogs on the betting market. You may be asking yourself, “Now why is that?” It’s because this game reeks of upset potential.
This game marks the beginning of a new chapter for Texas A&M football. Toward the end of the 2023 season, the program decided to part ways with head coach Jimbo Fisher. Fisher found some success in his six years with the school, but could never get the team to the next level and compete for an SEC title. The team was 6-4 at the time of his firing. Don’t cry for Jimbo, he had a $77 million buy out clause in his contract. Instead of going with another tenured coach like Fisher, A&M is now turning it over to younger blood in Mike Elko. Prior to this season, Elko spent the past two years as the head coach at Duke. The Blue Devils finished both years with winning records and even had a bowl victory in 2022 when Elko won ACC Coach of the Year. His resume is short, yes, but let it sink in for a second, he had winning seasons at Duke. That’s not easy. This is a return for Elko, who was the Aggies DC prior to his time in Durham, NC.
Even before coaching a snap, Elko has made a good impression. The floodgates opened up after Fisher’s exit and multiple top players left for the portal. However, to Elkos credit, he steadied the ship. The portal goes both ways and he hit it hard bringing in a plethora of players to fill the holes with the crown jewel being Nic Scourton from Purdue. Scourton, 6-4 285 lbs, is a force at defensive end who led the Big Ten last season with 10 sacks and 15 tackles for loss. He’s the owner of a lethal spin move and could be a huge factor in how this game turns out.
Notre Dame comes in with high expectations. The 12-team playoff format was made for programs like the Fighting Irish. The very good programs that have not been able to crack the top four. It’s playoffs or bust for Mike Freeman in his third year as Irish coach. Notre Dame will be returning another top-level defense just like they had last year. The focus this offseason was reworking the offense. Part of that rework was, for the third straight year, going to the transfer portal for their new starting QB. First was Jack Coan, last year was Sam Hartman, and this season it’s Mike Elkos former QB at Duke, Riley Leonard. Unlike Notre Dame’s previous transfer QBs, Leonard is mobile and poses a threat on the ground. That’s good because he could be running for his life at times this Saturday. While Notre Dame recruits very well at offensive line, replacing Joe Alt and Blake Fisher who they lost to the NFL, is no easy fix. Making matters worse the Irish lost starting tackle Charles Jagusah for the season due to a pectoral injury.
College Station is going to be going wild for this game. It’s about as tough an atmosphere as Notre Dame could’ve scheduled themselves to open the year. The Aggies have a new look and a new direction. The Irish offensive line is a question mark. Is the upset a lock to happen?
Hell no.
A man has to have a code and part of my code, which I learned the hard way, is to never bet against your own team. In this one, it feels like betting anything other than the ML is betting against my Golden Domers. Yes, the O-line is a concern, yes, it’s going to be a tough environment, and, yes, the new Elko Aggies will be fired up. I just don’t care. We’re talking about the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This defense is elite and won’t allow this game to get away from them. Do you think they’re taking a bus trip down to crazy old Texas just to lose to a second-tier SEC squad? Think again. Their schedule isn’t tough and they need this as one of their premiere wins to make the playoffs and give them insurance for any possible future slip-up. Time to show the world why WE’RE ranked Seven in the country.
Irish over.
BET: Notre Dame Money Line +126
#13 LSU at #23 USC
This is a match made in heaven. Both these teams suffered similar 2023s when they entered with playoff expectations that they failed to meet due to woefully poor defenses. They also both have two very highly-paid head coaches who know expectations are to compete for conference titles and playoff bids. Lastly, both programs enter 2024 replacing former Heisman-winning QBs who were picks number one and two in this year’s NFL draft.
USC is beginning a new era without number one overall pick and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, Caleb Williams. Stepping in for Williams is Junior Miller Moss. Outside of having the name of a Gen Z mumble rapper and the looks of a school bully from a 90’s movie, Moss made waves in his one start last season. Last time we saw him play he was slinging it for 372 yards and SIX tuddies in the DirecTV Bowl where he led the Trojans to a 42-28 victory over Louisville.
In honor of Miller Moss officially being named USC's starter, throwback to when he went OFF in the Holiday Bowl last year vs Louisville 🔥✌️ pic.twitter.com/s9KGukbD7w
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 20, 2024
Moss showed off his arm strength in that game, along with some nice touch and the ability to make throws off balance. There’s also a new generation starting for the Trojans receiving core. Gone to the NFL are vet receivers Brenden Rice and Tahj Washington. In are sophomores Malaki Lemon, Zacarahi Branch, and Duce Robinson. Branch is a five-star recruit who also excelled at track and field, running a 10.33 100 meter in high school. He’s small at 5-10 175lbs, but has the athleticism to be a killer in the slot. Meanwhile, Duce Robinson is a crop at 6-6 220 lbs. He has big size and the ability to get up to snatch those 50/50 balls. Both Branch and Robinson were five-star recruits who made 247 Sports 2023 freaks list. Also, keep in mind, USC’s head coach is Lincoln Riley. Moss and the new-look Trojan offense could be set up for a monster season.
On the other side of the field, LSU is replacing the number two overall pick in the NFL draft and last year’s Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. The man stepping into his shoes is Garrett Nussmeier. The Junior QB also made the most of his start in the team’s bowl game last season where he threw for almost 400 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Tigers defeated Wisconsin 35-31 in the ReliaQuest bowl. LSU has had Nussmeier waiting in the wings to be the QB of the future for a couple of years and now is his chance to step up. That’s a task that will not be easy when you factor in that LSU is replacing basically all of their offensive production from last season. Not only was Daniels their star QB that drove the passing game, but he was also their leading rusher with over 1100 yards last season. To make the situation cloudier, LSU’s leading running back, Logan Diggs, went to Ole Miss in the transfer portal. Wide receiver is just as big a question mark. In 2023 LSU had a powerful duo at wideout in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas, now both playing in the NFL, last season they combined for nearly 3800 yards and 31 touchdowns. Here’s the real cherry on top though. The Tigers even lost their offensive coordinator, Mike Denbrock, who left to take the same position at Notre Dame (HA! Suck it, Kelly!)
This game takes place in primetime Saturday night from the neutral sight of Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. LSU is currently a 4.5-point favorite and the over-under sits at 63.5. Last season this over-under would’ve been at 70 plus considering the defenses involved. I expect both defenses to show some level of improvement this season. USC brought in a handful of players through the transfer portal to hopefully patch some holes and removed DC Alex Grinch halfway through last season.
Meanwhile, LSU’s defensive players come in with a year of starting experience now under their belt. However, defense is not what I’m judging this game on. Even if they’ve improved, they were so bad last year that the improvement would only move them into the competent category. This will be a shootout, and as such, I’m judging it on the new-look offenses. When I do that, I come out on the side of USC. The Trojans have a returning OC and an offensive mind like Lincoln Riley with a track record of high-powered results. Southern Cal also has the luxury of higher-end skill position players stepping in to support their new starting QB.
This will be the third straight season that Brian Kelly and LSU opened their season in primetime at a neutral site. The last two years, both against Florida State, they got upset. This year will be three for three.
BET: USC Trojans Money Line +164
#14 Clemson at #1 Georgia
Clemson is playing with house money to an extent in this game. No one expects them to win and they are two score underdogs. This game serves as more of an opportunity to see where Clemson ranks as a program on a national level. The Tigers have fallen off in recent years and no longer feel like a title contender. They don’t recruit at quite the level of Georgia or the other powerhouses and Dabo Sweeney has shown zero interest in using the transfer portal to his team’s advantage. It has created a gap between good and great for them.
Clemson has the potential to win the ACC, but not a national title. If they manage to hang with Georgia and walk out with a close loss it will show that Dabo and the Tigers still deserve to be taken seriously. A blowout, however, would prove the current optics right. My money is on the current optics. I do like this Clemson defense and think they could keep it interesting for a quarter, maybe two, but then the talent gap will take over and The Bulldogs will pull away to cover.
BET: Georgia -13.5 (-105)
#19 Miami at Florida
With Florida State going down in Dublin last weekend, Miami could come out of week one as the new betting favorite to win the ACC depending on how this game goes. It’s a put-up or shut-up year for Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes who went portal-heavy to fortify this team in the offseason. They brought in six four-star transfer recruits including RB Damien Martinez from Oregon State and QB Cam Ward from Washington State. They push the chips after a season where they left a lot on the table. UM lost four one-score games on their way to a 7-6 record in 2023. The current landscape of the ACC is begging for another team to step up as a challenge to Florida St and Clemson at the top. Miami is primed to do that and an in-state rivalry win on the road against an SEC team would be a great start.
Meanwhile, the Gators are not exactly built to compete for their conference but it’s also a put-up or shut-up year for Florida. After leaving Louisville to take the HC spot at Florida in 2022, Billy Napier has posted back-to-back 7-loss seasons with The Gators. His seat is heating up this year and he’s got his work cut out for him if he wants to keep it on low. Florida has a behemoth of a schedule that includes games against Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State. Literally, any good win Napier can get will be critical to him keeping his job.
The line is close on this one with Miami currently a 2.5-point favorite. I expect a tight, low-scoring game that stays close to the current over-under of 54.5. The difference maker to me in this game is the Miami defense. Between what’s returning last season, and their transfer portal additions, they are set up to cause some havoc for QB Graham Meartz and the Gator offense. The Hurricanes’ ability to get pressure and force a couple of turnovers should be the deciding factor of this game. My oddly specific prediction here is going to be an interception seals the game for Miami who holds on to win 27-23. Spread covered and under hit. Only thing left to do now is bet that parlay.
BET: Same Game Parlay Miami -2.5 & Under 54.5 (Total Odds: +237)
Fresno State at #9 Michigan
Why am I highlighting a Fresno State game? Why am I betting on this game?
To make a statement.
The same way The Wolverines are going to. Michigan is just bigger and all-around stronger than Fresno State. This is a great first-game opportunity for that run game to get going and the offense to build up some confidence. It’s also an opportunity for QB Alex Orji to get his feet wet against a group of five defense. I’m behind this Michigan squad as a playoff team, and if they are, then they should be blowing out opponents like this.
To put it simply. Set the f*cking tone boys.
BET: Michigan -21.5 (-106)
North Carolina at Minnesota
This is what we call a priors bet. I took the Tar Heels win total over in my season preview. Winning this game is integral for the chances of that hitting staying high. I need all the insurance I can get in case they drop a bad game later in the year. For example, their October 26th matchup at Virginia. Don’t scoff at that. They lost to those 3-9 Cavaliers late last year and that’s when they still had Drake Maye. Lucky for me is the first game of the season for UNC and Mack Brown has a knack for getting his team out to strong starts on the year. They started 9-1 in 2022… then lost four straight. Last year they started a perfect 6-0… then finished the year 2-5. So the good news is, I’m feeling confident on this bet. Bad news is, everyday I am more fearful of my future bet. The current line is -1.5. Faithful readers of this column know that I scoff at those kinds of game lines. Let’s give that a nice little bump up to 2.5 for better odds.
BET: UNC Alt Spread -2.5 (-111)
Let’s take a quick moment to double check. Made a biased bet due to my fandom? Check. Bet on an upset? Check. Made a parlay because I can’t help myself? Check. Lastly, did I alt spread something? Yep, looks like I’ve hit every thing one should expect from an On Saturday betting column. Now that I’ve bestowed my wisdom upon you, feel free to run to your favorite sports book and throw large sums of cash down on these locks. More importantly, make sure to blow off any and all responsibilities this Saturday so you can spend the day watching college football. Then come back here next week to see what I have to say about it.
