ON SATURDAY W/ MIKE REGAN – Week 6 College Football Preview
Week 5 of the college football season: Big time matchups, upsets, close games, controversial endings. We’re only a quarter of the way through the season with much more chaos in store in the future. Before we look ahead though, as always, we have to review what was possibly the best weekend of college football yet.
WEEK 5 TL;DW (too long; didn’t watch)
Alabama vs Georgia - Game of the Year
This was a big time heavyweight matchup, and it’s a matchup with a history. In the last three seasons Georgia’s record was 42-2. Those two losses were to Alabama. Last year the Bulldogs lost their first game in two years in the SEC championship, a loss that kept them out of the playoffs, and the loss was to Alabama. As the head coach at Georgia Kirby Smart, recognized as one of the best coaches in the game today, is 1-6 against The Tide. There were a couple of notable differences surrounding this latest matchup however. Nick Saban was no longer on the sideline coaching the Crimson Tide and for the first time since Bush was in office, Alabama was an underdog (+2) at home.
It was a three act game at Brian Denny Stadium Saturday night when Georgia visited to play Alabama.
Act 1 of this game could simply be called the Rolling of the Tide. Does anybody wonder why Kalen Deboer was tapped to be the man to replace Nick Saban? Yes the win loss record speaks for itself, but there’s something else that made him the ideal candidate. As we saw when Washington walked all over the Texas defense in the playoffs last season, Deboer can create an offense that can score on tough SEC defenses.
That was on full display in the first half of this game.
Bama jumped out to a quick two score lead before cashing in on a turnover created short field to make the game 21-0 in the first quarter. On Alabama’s next drive they found themselves with 4th and 1 from the UGA 36. Kalen Deboer decided to go for blood. QB Jalen Milroe faked the hand off before pulling the ball back; opting to take it himself. RB Jam Miller then laid down the best block you’ll see all week to spring Milroe to the outside. He turned the corner and it was over. Raw physical talent wins. 28-0 Crimson Tide. The rout was on.
JALEN MILROE CONVERTS ON FOURTH DOWN AND TAKES IT THE DISTANCE!!! 28-0 ALABAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/NSIPZCEdBY
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) September 29, 2024
By the time the dust settled on the first half it was a 30-7 ball game. Deboer and company came out with an offensive game plan Georgia was not prepared for. The Bulldogs offense looked just as unprepared and uneasy. Georgia QB Carson Beck appeared rattled; missing throws, throwing picks, and taking a safety. It was all going wrong for The Bulldogs, however great coaches and great teams will adjust at halftime.
Hence Act two, the Comeback.
It took until past the midway point of the third quarter but Georgia finally got some offensive traction once again and made its way into the endzone. Bama responded with a field goal to take an 18 point lead into the final frame. Alabama seemed to sleep walk through the second half, resting on their large lead. Georgia however wasn’t done playing. With around 10 minutes left, Carson Beck hit Colbie Young for a 34 yard touchdown, cutting deeper into the lead.
33-21.
After forcing a Bama punt Georgia proceeded to go 78 yards in just four plays and score another touchdown to make things a one score affair with 5:39 left on the clock. Bama got the ball back and sure enough, like the game was scripted, Georgia forced a quick punt. Now late into the fourth quarter, could Georgia put together a touchdown drive and win this game. Yes, and they did it in one play. A deep ball to Dillon Bell for 67 yards. The Bulldogs had completed the comeback to take the lead 34-33 with only two and half minutes remaining.
CARSON BECK TO DILLON BELL!!!!!!!! OH MY FUCKING GOD GEORGIA LEADS AFTER BEING DOWN 28-0!!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/IQDT4tv0GK
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) September 29, 2024
Now comes act three, Crimson Heroes. Bama had just watched a once 28-0 lead dissipate. They had the ball with roughly two minutes left, an offense that had been quiet all second half, and needed points to avoid the monumental collapse.
What happened next is why I love college football.
First play of the drive Milroe opts to go deep to their best weapon, 17-year-old Ryan Williams. Williams adjusts to the ball and makes the catch. He then proceeds to juke two Georgia defensive backs into each other before taking it down the sideline for the score. One play, 75 yards, and a successful two point conversion. Bama back on top 41-34.
ABSOLUTE SCENES IN TUSCALOOSA!!!
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 29, 2024
RYAN WILLIAMS WITH A 75-YARD TD TO RETAKE THE LEAD! pic.twitter.com/pvc9ML7E7G
Its was the latest jaw dropping moment provided by Williams as his legend continues to grow in his young college career. He finished the game with 6 catches for 177 yards. It was the kind of ice in your veins performance you would expect from someone who writes “Kill Everybody” on their eye black.
The one mistake the Tide made was leaving time on the clock. Georgia started their drive with 2:14 to work with and a chance to tie. Much like the rest of the game, they refused to go out quietly. Carson Beck drove his offense down to the Alabama 20 before taking a shot to the endzone. Bama defensive back and true freshman, Zabien Brown, had gotten picked on by the Bulldog offense in the second half. He gave up some big plays that led to the Georgia comeback. Not his time though. Brown got his head around and came up with the interception to seal that game. With the game on the line it was the future of Bama football that came up with the biggest plays to secure a win in the biggest game of the year so far.
The Crimson Tide now sit at number one in the rankings and are in poll position to make the SEC title game. There’s no more divisions in the SEC so who knows, we could be getting a rematch of this game later this year. I for one would welcome that outcome.
Milroe Madness
The other major story coming out of Alabama’s victory over Georgia is the play of Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe. Kalen Deboer has completely unlocked him. Last season we would see flashes of what his physical and athletic abilities were capable of mixed in with his mistakes. This season the mistakes have dissipated and he’s been a more consistent monster. Against the Bulldogs he threw for 374 yards and 2 touchdowns. The scary part is that he did it on 81.2 percent passing going 27 of 33. He also continued his streak of being a double problem for defenses by running for another 113 yards and two touchdowns. Speaking of touchdowns, Milroe has scored two rushing touchdowns in every game this season to go along with his 10 passing. He now sits as the Heisman favorite and is on pace for a potential 3000-1000 season.
Kentucky Upsets #6 Ole Miss
For a month Ole Miss has been a buzz saw chopping up lesser competition. This past Saturday, they finally played a team with a pulse and it did not go well for Lane Kiffin and his squad. A couple weeks back we saw Kentucky drag Georgia into an ugly fight in a phone booth type game. Slow and boring as it was, they almost upset Georgia, losing by a single point 13–12. They dragged Ole Miss down into the same muck and forced the game to follow the script they wanted. Low scoring and slow. They dominated the time of possession almost doubling up Ole Miss 40 minutes to 20 and ran 80 offensive plays to The Rebels 58. As the adage says: The easiest way to slow down an opposing offense is by not letting them have the ball. UK kept the game close all day and then capitalized on that one drive they needed late to go up 20-17 with only a couple minutes remaining. Its a big win for Mark Stoops who continues to overachieve as head coach of the Wildcats. Meanwhile, an extremely deflating loss for Ole Miss. They were set with an easier SEC schedule that made them seem like a shoe-in for the playoffs. Now their matchup against Georgia later this year could have their playoff hopes on the lines.
Miami survives VA Tech
The number seven team in the country got way more than they bargained for when they played host to Virginia Tech this past Friday. It was a back and forth contest where Tech ran for over 200 yards and The Hurricanes turned the ball over three times. Fueled by Cam Ward’s 343 yard and 2 TDs The U came back from being down ten in the 4th to take the 38-34 lead with just under two minutes to play. After some questionable two minute offense, the Hokies were down to the Miami 30 with only three seconds left. Just enough time for one final heave to the endzone.
QB Kyle Drones dropped back and let one rip into a heap of leaping players who all fell to the ground with the ball somewhere inside. The refs rushed to the pile and it was clear they had no clue, so they said, “screw it, touchdown.” Unfortunately for Hokie’s fans, after review it was deemed an incomplete pass. Wasn’t a great look for the refs to seem so clueless, however to be fair, all touchdowns get reviewed. So it’s always better to just say yes and go to the replay. As for the play itself, it was the right call in my book, but you can decide for yourself. Did VA Tech get screwed by the evil zebras?
Big 12 Chaos
As expected going into the season, we’re five weeks in and have no clue who the front runner in the Big 12 is really. A couple weeks back, it appeared Kansas St. made a statement when they whooped Arizona 31-7. Then last week they went on the road to play BYU and fell right into a trap game. The Wildcats turned the ball over three times, gave up a special teams tuddy, and went 0-3 on fourth down in the second half. BYU got the upset 38-9.
Last week Utah had their big showdown on the road with Oklahoma State. The Utes absolutely bullied the Cowboys for 250 yards on the ground and shut them down defensively. The result was a 22-19 Utah win, but if you watched the game it wasn’t nearly that close. Utah’s reign as Big 12 fav lasted all of one week. Remember that Arizona team that got smacked by K-State? Well they hosted then ranked #10 Utah this weekend and pulled off the 23-10 upset.
This leaves #16 Iowa State the highest ranked team in the conference. Based on recent history it’s time to fade them along with #17 BYU who currently sits atop the conference standings.
Boise State Playoff Team?
One of the most intriguing play off races to watch is who will get that group of five spot. To remind everyone, the highest ranked group of five team gets an automatic bid into the playoffs seeded somewhere between 5-12. So most likely 12. This has added a reason to keep tabs on what teams outside of the Power Fiv- Uh… Four are cooking this season and stay atop of conference races in the Sunbelt, MAC, Mountain West, American, and AAC.
Five weeks in and the team to beat is Boise State. They managed to crack the Top 25 last week and have moved up to 21 after this weekend’s big win over Washington St. The Broncos currently sit 4-1 with their lone defeat being a narrow 37-34 loss to the sixth ranked team in the country, Oregon. Boise is a member of the Mountain West conference and will start its conference play schedule this week against Utah State. A game the Broncos are currently four score favorites in.
Fueling Boise’s success is their star, scratch that, ALL star running back Ashton Jeanty. How good is Jeanty? Scary good. The fourth year RB is averaging 10.3 a carry, scored 13 touchdowns and has already amassed 845 yards on the ground. In just four games. He’s currently on pace to rush for over 2500 yards. Put Barry Sanders on notice. His record of 2628 yards in a single season might be in jeopardy. If Jeanty keeps up his blistering pace he could one, find himself in New York for the Heisman ceremony, and two, carry Boise State into the CFP.
UNLV and The Sluka Situation
One team that is shaping up to challenge Boise State for the MWC title is 4-0 UNLV. Las Vegas has been getting a lot of press this past week after starting QB Matthew Sluke announced he would use the NCAA redshirt rule, which allows players who play less than four games to sit out and retain a year of eligibility. Sluka claims he made the decision due to NIL commitments that were promised to him and not realized. According to reports on the story, Sluka was promised 100k when he transferred from FCS school Holy Cross to UNLV.
Some say Sluka is being selfish and quitting on his team. Those people are currently sitting on their lawn yelling at the clouds. We would all do the same In his situation. If you took a job and then three months in were getting paid a third of your salary you would walk away too. However, just as a piece of advice to Sluka and any athlete when it comes to NIL negotiations. You have to get that in writing man. Either way, UNLV has stood pat and has no intent of paying Sluka what he claims he is owed to get him to return. They’re most likely taking that stance because they don’t feel they need him to win. I know that sounds mean, but it’s the truth. If they felt he was a necessity they would find the money.
The harsh reality is that Sluka wasn’t the reason The Runnin Rebels were winning games. They were winning games because they averaged over 280 yards rushing and their defense has now only given up 55 points all year. Another harsh reality is that UNLV may have gotten better as a result of this. Stepping up to take over at QB this week was Hajj-Malik Williams, who Sluka edged out for the starting spot in camp. Williams completed 81.3 percent of his passes and tossed 3 touchdowns in the teams 59-14 win over Fresno State. Vegas’ top receiver, Ricky White, had 10 catches for 126 yards and 3 TDs through three games with Sluka. In his first game with Williams he caught nine passes for 118 and 2 tuddies. See what I’m getting at? There’s a reason UNLV didn’t panic and pay Sluka. They were more than confident in what they had sitting behind him. There’s a chance this team would’ve ended up switching to Williams in the future either way when you consider Sluka was rocking a 41.3 completion percentage. Sluka’s strength was running the ball, he totaled 271 yards in his three games. However Williams even made up for that by running for 119 yards on the day.
What this story really highlights is the issue with NIL. It has too few guidelines. It was introduced haphazardly by the NCAA in the face of pending legal battles. Once again the NCAA has a mess they created. This could however open the flood gates. I doubt this is a solitary case. If it’s happening at one school, it’s happening at others. The biggest ripple effect of Slukas decision could be that it motivates other athletes, who feel lied to over NIL commitments, to come forward. The buzz over this happening at a group of five school will die down. However, if it happened at a larger Power 4 program, then things could get serious.
What I’m watching and How I’m Betting in Week 6
It’s not the sexiest slate of games this week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes when a schedule isn’t top heavy with big matchups you get a solid slate with a lot to keep an eye on. In keeping with that mentality, I have an extra stuffed preview for this week with six games and six bonafide locks to bet.
As always, check out my past bets and keep track of how I’m doing this year here.
#9 Mizzou at #25 Texas A&M(-2.5)
Mizzou is once again ranked in the top ten, however the line on this game should tell you what pundits believe about the Tigers. The 27-21 win over Boston College wasn’t impressive and the come from behind 30-27 OT win against Vanderbilt was worrisome. It’s put up or shut up time for Mizzou. Go on the road and get an impressive win against a ranked team in a tough environment. If not you’re up for a tumble down the rankings and your playoff chances will end up in jeopardy. Things haven’t looked great for my adopted SEC team but these colors don’t run. Let’s go Mizzouuuuuu
BET: Mizzou ML (+112)
Pittsburgh at UNC
It has been a rough couple weeks for The Tar Heels. Two weeks ago they turned the ball over 5 times as JMU put up 70 points on them. It was a performance so bad that head coach Mack Brown offered to quit. Then most recently, they were up on rival Duke 20-0 in the third quarter before giving up 21 unanswered to lose a game where they committed 10 penalties. Now they have Eli Holstein and the red hot Pitt Panthers coming to town. Holstein has already passed 1100 yards passing and has tossed three touchdowns in every game this season. He’ll be going up against a defense that gave up 388 yards through the air to JMU. UNC is a program in disarray and it’s clear that Mack Brown’s tenure will be coming to an end at some point. Whether a firing happens soon or after the season, things aren’t going to get better in the near future.
BET: Pitt -2.5 (-115)
#12 Ole Miss (-9.5) at South Carolina
Bounce back game? Probably, but after whiffing on Ole Miss -13.5 last week, I’m gonna take a break on betting their spreads for a minute.
A big part of Ole Miss falling to Kentucky was their inability to pass protect. UK D-linemen Deone Walker was in Jaxson Darts kitchen all day. Walker sacked him twice and accounted for six of the team’s 22 total pressures. Now they travel to play the team with the second highest pressure grade per PFF in the SEC. The Gamecocks have 14 sacks so far this season. Meanwhile, Ole Miss also sports a very talented defense consisting of such players as Walter Nolan, Prince Ummalanien, and Jared Ivey up front. As a matter of fact, they have the highest pressure grade just slightly above South Carolina.
Recency bias makes me question how well the Ole Miss offense can function against actual competition. Meanwhile, The Rebels have the defensive front to slow down the SC run and pressure the QB into mistakes. Feels like an under in the making.
BET: Under 53.5 (-110)
#10 Michigan at Washington (-2.5)
In what universe is Michigan the tenth best team in the country? Most top ten teams can hit 100 yards passing in a game. Sorry, that was low hanging fruit. I understand that Michigan is who they are. In order to win games, they have to go slow, hammer the run game, and play top tier defense. My issue is that even that has begun to show cracks. In each of Michigan’s last three games they’ve been outscored in the second half. Yes, that includes the game against Arkansas State. The offense is too easy to figure out, as we saw in the second half of the USC game, their running game can be stopped for long stretches once defenses just decide to sell out against it. Last week against Minnesota, Michigan averaged 3.6 a carry. The point is, the way Michigan plays isn’t sustainable to stay in the playoff mix.
Now that I’ve shit on Michigan I’m going to bet them.
Washington’s run defense is in the bottom half of the Big Ten in EPA per play and they give up 121 rushing yards per game. While they manage to put up solid offensive production, they are only averaging 25.2 points a game, meaning they’re a team that can’t finish drives. Overall their an average football team. Michigan can stranglehold their way to beating average teams. . . Oh Shit, this is a rematch of the Natty from last year. How about that?
BET: Michigan ML (+112)
Kansas at Arizona State (-3.5)
Kansas has lost four straight, three of which have been by one score. Lance Liepold is a good coach; they have to win one eventually. Right? I say it happens here against an Arizona St. team that’s not as good as its record suggests.
BET: Kansas ML (+112)
Iowa at #3 Ohio State (-19.5)
I’m weirdly intrigued by this game, mainly whether or not Ohio State can cover. This is the first real defense the Buckeyes have faced. Now we get to see how Jeremiah Smith, Quinshon Judkins and the rest of the offense can really cook. Iowa sports a good defense as they seem to do on a yearly basis, but can it slow down the Buckeyes?
Iowa has improved on offense from a year ago. They actually have a weapon in RB Kaleb Johnson who has run for 9 touchdowns and 685 yards at a clip of 8.4 per carry. As a team the Hawkeyes are running for 250 per game. An upset is highly unlikely, however, could we see another classic example of a tough nosed underdog keeping things close. Or is The Ohio State University as good as they’re projected to be?
My money says the Buckeyes are that good. Let’s be honest people, the Iowa offense has improved from non-existent to competent, but OSU has arguably the best defense in the nation. It’s a lot harder to run the ball when a team with multiple future NFL players knows that’s all you can do. I realize the Bucks haven’t played any real competition, but they’ve been on autopilot against those lesser teams. This is where they actually kick things into gear. I think Ohio State comes out of the gate strong and fast to make a statement.
BET: 1st Quarter Ohio State -4.5 (-112)
