Texas Over Georgia and More – On Saturday – College Football Week 8
College football is popping off and I’m back to talk about it. Welcome kind readers to the latest edition of On Saturday. Your ultimate review and preview column for the week of college football that was. Speaking of review, I was unable to get a column out last week because I was busy returning some video tapes. I don’t want to go back and do a two-week dated review of what was a wild week of upsets. So in lieu of that, I’ve put together a quick one-image recap.
With that out of the way, let’s turn our attention to the recent week of games before we preview this upcoming Saturday. When schedules were released people had October 12th highlighted as a slate of bangers. We had close match-ups all day long and The Red River Rivalry. I won’t be covering Red River in detail because it was a boring 34-3 blowout. Oklahoma couldn’t score points if they were playing NFL blitz let alone against Texas which is the top team in the country for a reason.
Week 7 TL;DW (too long;didn’t watch)
Oregon Wins Round One against Ohio State
Everybody had this game circled on the calendar since before the season started and it lived up to the hype. Going in I suspected that Ohio State hadn’t shown its full playbook and Oregon could be caught by surprise. On the contrary, it was Oregon who showed some different looks and had their most impressive offense day of the season, against what some considered the best defense in that nation. A big part of that was the breakout game the Ducks got out of wideout Evan Stewart. Up until this game, the five-star recruit had totaled 16 receptions for 182 yards. He nearly doubled his season yardage total in this game, catching 7 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown.
The Ducks took a slim 32-31 lead with 1:47 remaining after Atticus Sappington (greatest name for a kicker since Cameron Dicker) put a 19-yard field goal through the uprights. The pressure was on QB Will Howard and the Buckeyes offense. Ohio State marched the ball all the way down to the Oregon 28 before a costly offensive pass interference call on Jeremiah Smith pushed them back to the 43 and out of field goal range. A couple of plays and an illegal substitution later, OSU had the ball on the 38 with only six seconds left plus one timeout. Theoretically enough time for a quick pass to help make their field goal attempt more manageable. However, Howard would end up taking off and fleeing the pocket. He ran upfield for 12 yards before sliding down, but it came too late and time had run out.
Oregon held on to win in what felt like a coin-flip game. We could get round two of this matchup in the Big Ten title game unless Penn State or Indiana have anything to say about it.
LSU stuns Ole Miss
There’s something special about Tiger Stadium at night. The lights are bright and the stadium is loud with 100k plus, possibly inebriated, LSU fans going wild. It always makes for a big fight prime-time atmosphere. Ole Miss led the majority of the game and was in control after kicking a FG late in the fourth to go up 23-16. LSU got the ball back with just over three minutes left and down a touchdown. Would there be any Tiger Stadium magic?
Tiger QB Garrett Nussmeier didn’t play a great game. In fact, he threw two interceptions and went 22/51. Yet, he still left an impression on me due to how he performed in the late-game situation. He never appeared rattled by the moment. There’s a certain feel when a QB is truly leading an offense and driving it. This drive had that feel. The very first set of downs in this possession ended up in a 4th down situation where Nussmeier hit Mason Taylor for 14 yards and a first down. A couple of plays later, now 3rd and ten the QB once again hits Taylor for 19 yards and a new set of downs. A few plays later Nussmeier would find Taylor for another big gain that was almost a TD until they ruled Taylor was down. Going in, I thought the difference in this game would be the pass rush of Ole Miss. They tried their hardest to make a difference, but Nussmeier just has that dog in him. The Rebels got pressure on the Nuss Bus 26 times, yet they didn’t get home for the sack once. They didn’t even register a single QB hit. Sacks are a QB stat, as we all know, but so is sack avoidance.
NO FUCKING WAY BUT HE WAS DOWN… pic.twitter.com/N2DODNIeod
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) October 13, 2024
Shortly after that completion LSU once again found themselves staring at a 4th and 5 from the Ole Miss 23. Game one the line, high pressure, and Nussmeier delivers a strike down the middle to Aaron Anderson for the game-tying touchdown.
GARRETT NUSSMEIER TO AARON ANDERSON TO TIE THE GAME!!!!! pic.twitter.com/3sX1xWbzyF
— Matthew Brune (@MatthewBrune_) October 13, 2024
We were headed to OT and the Rebels were first on Offense. They were immediately pushed back by penalties and they proceeded to throw three incomplete passes, all deep towards the end zone. The Ole Miss offense in general suffered from another game where things just felt slightly off. In the end, they had to settle for the field goal. Out comes kicker Caden Davis who proceeded to make a FIFTY-SEVEN yard field goal. What a big moment. It seemed as though the offense had failed and cost Ole Miss the game, but special teams saved the day. Then the Tigers immediately rained all over the parade of Rebel fans. On the very first play of their OT possession, LSU struck gold when Nussmeier hit Kyren Lacy in the endzone for the win. It was a nice little back-shoulder throw and catch.
KYREN LACY WALKS OFF OLE MISS IN OVERTIME 😱
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 13, 2024
DEATH VALLEY IS ALIVE 🔥 pic.twitter.com/GfPiSh0Qx8
Brian Kelly moved to 17-1 at home as coach of the LSU Tigers and a perfect 13-0 when those games took place at night. His team is still very alive in the playoff race and the race for the SEC title. Meanwhile, Ole Miss season is on life support. Two losses makes their playoff chances slim and makes their game against Georgia later in the season a must-win. Also, two conference losses killed their chance of using the SEC title game to catapult them into the playoffs.
Close Calls
Penn State comebacks on USC
Tough go of it in the big ten for USC so far as they now hold a 1-3 conference record. The Trojans seemed prepared to bounce back from their ugly loss to Minnesota last week before collapsing. They jumped out to a 17-3 lead and were shutting down the Nittany Lion offense for the first thirty minutes. Penn State mounted a comeback in the second half by continually pressing the Tyler Warren button. The tight end finished with 17 catches for 224 yards. Warren also hauled in the first touchdown that finally got Penn State’s offense going when OC Andy Kotelnicki went into his bag of tricks and pulled out a double pass.
DOUBLE PASS AND WHAT A CATCH! pic.twitter.com/DSOQOIa14t
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 12, 2024
The game ended up going into overtime tied at 30 before PSU kicker Ryan Barker hit a 36-yard field goal for the walk-off win. We got to watch Penn State vs USC go to overtime at the Coliseum. The new Big Ten rules.
Alabama Survives South Carolina
Coming off the upset to Vandy, Bama had a 14-0 lead and appeared in firm control of this game. Then things went sideways with about a minute and a half left in the first half. The Gamecocks hit a 36-yard touchdown pass on 4th and nine, sacked Jalen Milroe in the endzone for a safety, intercepted Milroe with one second remaining and kicked a field goal to make it 14-12. All that in 90 seconds of game time. The game remained back and forth in the second half with The Tide taking a 27-19 lead with just under two minutes left. SC would not go into the night quietly though. They marched 75 yards for a touchdown and a chance to tie with just 43 seconds left. The two-point conversion failed, but they were still not done yet. The Gamecocks came out and did something that never happens in the NFL, they recovered the onside kick! It gave them one more shot, but it didn’t work out as Lanoris Sellers was intercepted as time expired. Bama survived but left the field leaving more questions than answers as to what this team’s ceiling is.
Florida Takes Tennessee to OT
The Volunteers have a serious problem offensively. After struggling in their upset loss last week to Arkansas, their five offensive possessions in the first half went; fumble, punt, punt, punt and interception. After digging themselves a 10-0 hole they came to life and scored 17 unanswered to swing the game. They held that lead until 30 seconds left in the game when Gator QB and true freshman DJ Lagway delivered a 27-yard strike to the endzone for the tie.
Tennessee’s offense has struggled mightily the past few weeks, however, RB Dylan Sampson has continued to cook. Sampson ran for 121 yards and three touchdowns. He punched in his third touchdown in OT to give the Vols the win. Tennessee, similar to Bama, is another team that has left us questioning how good they really are after their play the past two weeks.
Big 12
Time to check in on the big twelve. The conference where everybody eventually beats everybody and there’s no such thing as a true favorite to win the league.
#16 Utah went on the road to play Arizona state Friday night. QB Cam Rising finally returned after missing the past three games with a hand injury. He proceeded to throw three interceptions and sink his team. He’s also now done for the season. On the other side of the field RB Cam Skattebo popped off for 132 yards and two touchdowns as the SunDevils got the upset on the Utes 27-19.
#18 Kansas State continued to rebound from their BYU loss by going into Colorado and coming out with the victory. Buffalo QB Shadeur Sanders played one hell of a game going 34 of 40 for 388 yds and three tuddys. He had his team up 28-24 late until Avery Johnson delivered a dime for a 50-yard touchdown and the win.
# 11 Iowa State went on the road to play West Virginia in Morgantown, one of the tougher places to play in the Big 12. The Cyclones weren’t rattled though and once again played a strong disciplined game. They picked off Mountaineer QB Garrett Greene twice to win the turnover battle and got out of town with the 28-16 dub.
#14 BYU played host to the Arizona Wildcats. The Cougars’ defense continued to wreak havoc forcing four turnovers and taking the last one to the house for a touchdown. BYU got the dominant 41-19 victory and I hit my Arizona team total under bet. Thanks, Mormons. They really are the nicest people.
What I’m Watching and How I’m Betting in Week 8
As always, you can see my previous bets this season here.
#7 Alabama(-3.5) at #11 Tennessee
Two teams trying to figure something out. For Tennessee, it’s how to get this offense moving again. For Bama, it’s how to get their defense off the field more often. One of those things has to give. Something consistent for The Vols is a high level of defense as no team has hit the 20-point mark against them. However, this Crimson Tide offense is the best they’ve faced. It will be crucial that the talented defensive front of Tenn manages to contain Jalen Milroe who has 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. Something to note however is how the offensive flow of Bama has continued to drop off ever since the first half of the Georgia game. The most notable defect in their offense has been the running game. It’s nonexistent. They averaged 3.1 against Georgia, 4 against Vanderbilt, and 3.4 against South Carolina. It’s making their offense easier to defend and putting too much of the load on Jalen Milroe to make plays. When that happens he’s more prone to interceptions, four in the last three games, and taking sacks, four against the Gamecocks last week. Tennessee is built to run the ball and lessen the overall possessions in this game. The Tide will have fewer opportunities to put up points and they’ll have to do it against a very strong defense.
BET: Alabama Team Total Under 30.5 (-118)
Nebraska at #16 Indiana (-6.5)
Big-time flowers to Curt Cignetti. The former James Madison head coach went 19-4 with the Dukes before taking the job at Indiana. He’s immediately found success and has The Hoosiers off to the best start they’ve had in a very long time. The Hoosiers are currently the top-ranked team per PFF grade in the Big Ten and have scored more points than anybody in the conference. They haven’t had a tough schedule, but that is about to change in the second half of the season and it starts with this game. Nebraska is a tough team that excels at generating interior pressure. The Hoosier QB, Kurtis Rourke, has been arguably the best in the conference statistically. Rourkes completed 73 percent of his passes for over 1700 yards and a 14-2 Touchdown to Int ratio. However, he hasn’t faced a lot of pressure. Only 21 of his 161 attempts have come when under pressure. On paper, Indiana has a strong pass rush as well, and that will prove to be a test for Cornhusker QB Dylan Raiola. The true freshman has shown flashes of his upside and potential this season, but he’s also made his share of mistakes, especially when under pressure. The question will be if this Hoosier pass rush can get home against this Nebraska O-line; which will be the biggest they’ve faced. This game is truly going to come down to the battle in the trenches. Indiana has either blown out or pulled away late from everyone they’ve faced this season. I think Nebraska has the size and skill, especially defensively, to avoid this from getting away from them. I’m taking the points
BET: Nebraska +6.5 (-108)
#6 Miami (-4.5) at Louisville
Is Miami this year’s Washington?
Two weeks in a row they’ve had to come from behind to win by one score and barely survive an upset. They’re looking vulnerable. Things haven’t been going smoothly for Louisville either. After a 3-0 start to the season, they lost back-to-back games to Notre Dame and SMU, each by a single touchdown. Last week they had to come from behind late in the fourth to beat UVA. The highlight of this matchup for me is going to be the QB battle between Cam Ward and Tyler Shough. I’m interested in seeing who can avoid mistakes. Over the Hurricanes’ past three games, Ward has thrown 4 interceptions which has coincided with the team’s recent struggles. Meanwhile, for the Cardinals, Shough has tossed a pick in their last three as well. A stretch that as I mentioned the team went 1-2. In a game that I expect to be close a single INT can be the difference between victory and defeat.
Hot take, but I don’t find these teams that different. The only difference has been that Louisville’s one-score games haven’t gone in their favor. Plus the teams they lost to are better than the teams the Canes barely scraped by recently.
The game could get weird, so let’s get weird with our bet.
BET: Winning Margin 0-6 points (+500)
#8 LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas
Arkansas is not an easy out, especially at home. Just ask Tennessee. Speaking of Tennessee they were also coming off a big win before taking the dreadful trip to Lafayette. Could LSU be walking right into a trap? Well, the big difference between LSU and The Vols is that The Tigers have a viable passing attack. Tennessee was willing to get down and gritty running the ball against Arkansas, shortening that game. LSU won’t do that. They do one thing and one thing only, have Nussmeier sling it. They’ll pick up chunk plays and move this game at a tempo that Arkansas can’t keep up with.
BET: LSU -2.5 (-118)
#5 Georgia at #1 Texas
Why does this game feel lopsided for me? It’s Georgia vs Texas. A true battle of heavyweights. However, I’m blinded by Georgia giving up 31 points to Mississippi State of all teams. Texas has just looked dominant all year long thanks in large part to their offensive line. They rock an FBS-leading 93.6 grade per PFF and haven’t failed to meet a challenge yet. This past week against Oklahoma the Longhorns’ pass block allowed only five pressures all game. They played one of the best defensive lines in Michigan early this season and managed to keep Ewers out of harm’s way except for one single sack. Ewers didn’t look amazing in his return, but The Bulldogs just gave up 305 through the air to Michael Van Buren Jr. and Mississippi State. I feel confident that Ewers will have a good day, as long as he avoids any stupid mistakes.
Another important note, the recent emergence of running back Quintrevion Wisner for Texas. In the past two games, the sophomore has put up 196 yards on 26 carries. If that continues, and Texas can have a consistent viable threat on the ground, that’s scary. One last aspect to hit, the Longhorns haven’t given up more than 13 in a single game, which ironically enough, was also to Mississippi State.
Texas has looked the part of being the #1 team in the country. However, it’s fair to point out that their schedule has been pretty damn easy. Their toughest two games have been against teams that can’t score points, Michigan and Oklahoma. Georgia is without a doubt the toughest competition they’ve faced. This is a prove-it game for the Longhorns. Are they as good as they seem? For me, the answer is yes. I’m taking the Burnt Orange and I’m eating the points.
BET: Texas -4.5 (-118)
#17 Kansas St (-2.5) at West Virginia
Nope. Not touching this one. This game has Big 12 chaos written all over it. Both teams can move the ball offensively. Kansas State’s defense continues to not live up to expectations in my eyes. It’s a road game in a tougher environment. There’s no way I’m putting my money behind one of these teams winning or covering a spread for that matter. I do however feel comfortable that some points get put up here in a back-and-forth affair. Kansas State’s defense has been susceptible to giving up big days to opposing QBs. Shadeur just cooked them, and Tulane had a big day earlier in the year. They currently are giving up the second most passing yards in the Big 12.
BET: Over 55.5 (-110)
#24 Michigan(-3.5) at #22 Illinois
The mystique of the Michigan defense has disappeared. They can’t seem to put together a full sixty minutes. Despite having arguably the best Cornerback in the country, their secondary has continued to struggle. Michigan fans should be cursing Harbaugh for taking Jesse Minter with him to LA. In their most recent game, a loss to Washington, UM was once again outscored in the second half for the fourth straight week. Illinois can throw the ball and continue to get strong play out of QB Luke Altmyer, 14 tuddys to just a single interception. Also don’t forget that this Illinois team recently played Penn State and held their own. Michigan is just a much worse version of Penn State. I don’t know how many points the Illini put up, but it will be more than Michigan. Until we see proof of concept, I doubt Jack Tuttle will be able to get the Michigan passing attack kicked into gear.
BET: Illinois ML (+136)
Iowa (-5.5) at Michigan State
Just highlighting this one because it has a line that’s worth hammering. I think Michigan State has their program moving in the right direction but this is a bad matchup for them. They give up 130 yards on the ground a game and are going up against one of the best running backs in college football. Despite defenses stacking the box on Iowa and having no fear of a passing attack, Kaleb Johnson is averaging 8 yards a carry. Couple that miss-match with defensive advantage Iowa has and you have an easy cover.
BET: Iowa -5.5 (-115)
