Nick Caserio &#$!ing Sucks!
Hang on and let me lay out the case!
Nick Caserio was hired to be the Houston Texans’ GM in January 2021, which was a turbulent time to say the least for the Texans Franchise. He walked into a job where the franchise QB was demanding a trade due to becoming disgruntled over the changing of the GM and Head Coach positions. Then came March 2021, when a lawsuit was filed against said franchise QB alleging sexual assault, which was followed by 13 more allegations. We’ll talk more about Deshaun Watson and the fallout for the Houston Texans soon.
Here’s the point where you say, “Adam, how can you make a case against Caserio when he came in and rid the team of Deshaun Watson, got the next franchise QB, and built a perennial playoff team in just 2 years?”
And I’ll say again, let me lay out the case.
The Good
Let’s start with the no-doubt, slam-dunk wins that Caserio has put together in the last 4 years. First, the previously alluded-to Deshaun Watson situation. In light of both the trade demands and sexual assault allegations by and of Deshaun Watson, newly minted GM Nick Caserio did something unprecedented in the long history of American Sports: he got 150 cents on the dollar for a spoiled asset. The trade initially consisted of the Browns receiving the Texans’ 2024 6th rounder (which was again flipped to end up with the Vikings taking Will Reichard) for *deep breath* the Browns’ 2022 1st and 4th, 2023 1st and 3rd, and 2024 1st and 4th. We’ll get back to what those picks ended up being in a second, but all-in-all, the Texans (initially) got six picks (4 premium picks) for an upset and toxic QB and a day 3 pick 3 years in the future.
So, what became of those Browns picks? As happens in the machinations of the NFL, they were traded (mostly, shout-outs to Dameon Pierce for being the only pick involved in this trade that wasn’t traded again) for this crop of players:
- Kenyon Green
- John Metchie
- Christian Harris
- Thomas Booker
- Will Anderson Jr
- Calen Bullock
- Tank Dell
- Xavier Hutchinson
- Brandon Hill
- Kamari Lassiter
- Jamal Hill
- Cade Stover
That is a lot of value gained, especially considering what Deshaun Watson has become for Cleveland: 3 seasons, 19 games, 3365 yards (1122 per season), 19 Touchdowns, 12 Interceptions, and nearly 2 dozen sexual assault lawsuits. There is no way to discuss this trade without marking it as a total win for Houston.
While we’re giving Nick Caserio his laurels, let’s talk about his unquestioned draft hits. Under his Texans’ tenure, Casaerio has made 40 total picks, including 2025, which, for obvious reasons, we are ejecting from this discussion. Of those 40 picks, 7 of them are bonafide hits using my complicated model (atleast 60% of possible snaps played and either sitting at a career grade over 79 on PFF or made some kind of awards ballot team, excluding Pro-Bowl because I don’t hand out participation trophies, or just a guy I’m high on sometimes).
- Nico Collins (2021 3rd)
- Derek Stingly Jr (2022 1st)
- Jalen Pitrie (2022 2nd)
- CJ Stroud (2023 1st)
- Will Anderson (2023 1st)
- Juice Scruggs (2023 2nd)
- Kamari Lassiter (2024 2nd)
So two things stand out on this list so far, of the 14 total day one and two picks that Caserio has made (once again excluding 2025), he has hit on 7 of them for a hit rate of 50% which is beyond respectable into very good territory, the other thing that stands out is that none of his picks from day three have breached into “hits.” Maybe you think thats unfair because day three picks can be hits just by contributing to the team, but, other teams in that time frame have picked players like Dalton Schultz, Isaiah Likely, Khalil Shakir, Tariq Woolen, Dontayvion Wicks, Puka Nacua, Bucky Irving, and Devaughn Vele who have been more productive so there does need to be some measuring stick. However, for now let’s continue to talk about The Good of Caserio’s reign, we’ll have time later to discuss the misses.
The final element of the GM’s job to discuss here is contracts. Caserio, like most GMs, has a significant amount of transactions, ranging from waivers to full-blown free agency long-term deals, so in the interest of brevity and entertainment, we’ll focus here on free agency and not on fringe deals unless they really play a role.
The three external signees I have as big wins for Caserio are Danielle Hunter, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Jeff Okudah. Let’s start with Danielle Hunter, who Houston signed to a 2-year $49M contract in 2024 (which was later altered with every NFL Cap hobbyist’s favorite term: Void Years). How did Hunter repay an upper-market deal? With upper-market play having 12 sacks in 17 games and a participation trophy Pro Bowl selection. The deal currently sits at 10th among DEs in total cash, which is probably a slight underpay given that Hunter is 6th in total pressures in that same stretch. Now, the Hunter deal does have the asterisk of Jonathan Greenard, but we can litigate that later.
The other two deals, Azeez Al-Shaair (3 years $34M) and Jeff Okudah (1 year $4.75M) have been productive or value contracts respectively with Okudah being a former first round pick on a reclamation deal and Al-Shaair being an impactful player that can soak up snaps and is paid at the 20th biggest cap hit amongst true Line Backers.
I know this article has a somewhat inflamitory title that you should blame my team of editors for, but that is a hair under 1000 words on the ways that Nick Caserio has kicked ass and taken names, but it’s time we venture into murkier waters. Let’s talk about the iffy-but-not-bad moves that Casaerio has made.
The Iffy
Okay, we don’t need to go through and define Caserio’s entire career again or talk about the many picks of Deshaun Watson, so let’s start with defining what iffy means in this case, and we’ll start to define that by rambling things that it isn’t.
I initially was going to put EVERY transaction into one of these three categories, but it’s hard to define everything into those three groups. Is a 7th-round pick on Solomon Byrd, who played 1/3 of total snaps in the one game he appeared in, iffy or bad? Is signing Jerry Hughes to a 2-year $10M contract in 2022 good or iffy? Sometimes these things are simply unimpactful. So, once again, what is IFFY? Well, it’s anything that wasn’t good or bad but had consequence, either by literal cost or opportunity cost. That all being said, let’s talk through some of this stuff, and I think you’ll get a better picture of what moves are actually iffy.
Starting with the draft, I have four of Caserio’s 40 picks as Iffy:
- Kenyon Green (2022 1st)
- Christian Harris (2022 3rd)
- Tank Dell (2023 3rd)
- Jarrett Patterson (2023 6th)
I think plenty of you are willing to come along on this journey for Kenyon Green (a first-rounder that was recently flipped with a day three pick for CJ Gardner-Johnson and a later day three pick), Christian Harris, and Tank Dell, but Jarrett Patterson as a 6th round pick probably needs a little more convincing to be included as impactful enough for this conversation.
Jarrett Patterson has played 70% of available snaps since he was drafted and has been a relatively average player at center. However, he is now displacing Juice Scruggs, who played primarily center with some left guard for the Texans and has outplayed Patterson at both Center and Guard. I am basing this off of out-of-season depth charts, so time will tell if this holds water when football starts back up, but for now, the opportunity cost of playing Patterson over Scruggs looks iffy to say the least.
As for trades, I already touched on one iffy trade in the CJ Gardner-Johnson trade, where the Texans inexplicably gave away a young, highly drafted OL Prospect to the PHILIDEPLPHIA EAGLES for an aging d-back and moved down on day three of 2023. Kind of like giving the potential to make nuclear weapons to Ira- actually, you know what I’m not going to kick another powder keg today in this article.
The other trade of note in this category is the Christian Kirk trade. This trade was really low cost (a 2027 7th for the veteran WR), but we are talking about giving up a pick and some (if not much) cap space/dead money to a 30-year-old receiver coming off of an injury.
I expect this part to garner the most disagreement: the contracts. I have three iffy contracts that Nick Caserio has inked so far: Stefon Diggs, Denico Autry, and Jimmie Ward. Stefon Diggs was signed to a 1-year $22.5M contract in 2024 following his trade from the Bills (don’t worry, Bills fans, that trade is coming up later). Diggs proceeded to play 8 games, putting up 496 yards and 3 touchdowns before suffering a season-ending ACL tear. You can’t call this a good contract because $22M for what they got from him is tough, but you can’t call this a bad contract because it was off the books in one year, and he played less than 50% of the games before suffering a random injury. Falls in the iffy category pretty cleanly.
Denico Autry was signed to a 2-year $20M contract in 2024. $10M a year for a pass rusher who just had a career year at 11.5 sacks seems like a good deal on the surface, but Autry was coming off a contract year bump that outshone his previous high by 2.5 sacks, and Autry had played two full seasons in the last six seasons. Oh, and did I mention he was a 33-year-old defensive end? Iffy.
Finally, Jimmie Ward, who got a 2 year $13M deal in 2023. This ranked him in the 50s in terms of cap hit among players in the secondary for 2024, but it was his first year transitioning from corner/free safety to strong safety, and as is a common thread in this section, he got injured. Ward has played a full slate of games only twice in his career, and for the Texans across two seasons, he has played 20 games.
The Bad
I’ve waited long enough, let’s go over the bad of Nick Caserio’s Texans’ career. As before, we’ll get started by looking at the place where you can make or break your team, the NFL Draft.
Not every pick is going to be a hit, that’s to be expected, but years where a good portion of your picks, especially your day and and two picks, are hits can make your team. The opposite holds true, too. Over a period of time, too many misses lead to a team getting old, expensive, and/or thin. It’s worth remembering that context when you look at the bad of Caserio’s draft history. Here are the five picks I have graded as bad:
- Davis Mills (2021 3rd)
- John Metchie (2022 2nd)
- Dameon Pierce (2022 4th)
- Dylan Horton (2023 4th)
- Blake Fisher (2024 2nd)
For starters, I wanted to outline the 2022 & 2024 drafts as classes that have led to some of the Texans’ current problems. Out of those two classes, they’ve gotten 2 quality pieces in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter while missing on every other pick and missing heavily on Metchie, Pierce (which might be more to do with the coach than the pick), and Fisher. Because of major draft misses like that, they’ve ended up thin at OLine, interior DLine, and WR, which just happen to be positions that I have as bad draft picks. That segues perfectly into the Bad trades since 2021.
The two trades that look like absolute misses also happen to be a repeated theme at offensive line and wide receiver, the Stefon Diggs trade and the Laremy Tunsil trade.
The Texans traded for Diggs in April 2024, sending a 2nd in 2025 (which was once again traded but turned into Ozzy Trapilo) in exchange for Diggs, a 24 6th (Mekhi Wingo) and a 25 5th (Troy Horton). I’m not going to blame Nick Caserio for Diggs ending up hurt, but sending out a 2nd for Diggs and two day three picks is bad business. Diggs ended up off the books after one year, but the Texans depleted a potential premium pick on a fading WR who, if everything had worked out flawlessly, was slotted into either the number 2 or 3 role on the offense.
The Tunsil trade is admittedly a bit of a homer addition to this article. The Texans sent Tunsil and a 25 4th (Jaylin Lane) to Washington in exchange for a 25 3rd (Jaylin Noel), a 7th (flipped again, Lequint Allen), and two future picks in 2026. This is the opposite of the previous trade and I can hear the complaints already, yes the Texans moved out a 30 y/o high value player for picks that can become depth pieces for a thin team, but Tunsil hasn’t exactly shown a major drop off in play and the players stepping into Tunsil’s role (Cam Robinson and Airoentae Ersery) have not projected as replacements of the same quality. The trade-off here is a decrease in the comfort of franchise QB CJ Stroud, who already saw an increase in sacks and an increase in time to throw (both of which you are praying is the aberration) in 2024.
Speaking of letting depth walk out the door, Caserio also let Johnathan Greenard and Justin Reid walk from the Texans to other contenders. Reid played his first four seasons in Houston, racking up seven interceptions and 230 solo tackles all while sporting a rookie salary of $1M a year. In 2022, Reid was in line for a pay raise, and instead of keeping Reid on board, the Texans let him walk to KC at a moderate $10M a year, where he proceeded to win two Super Bowls as a major contributor to the Chiefs’ defense. Greenard is a similar story. After playing out a quality rookie contract for four years, Greenard was in line for a pay bump. Instead of keeping Greenard in-house, he walked to Minnesota, and the Texans signed Danielle Hunter as his replacement. We covered Hunter earlier, and that was generally a good signing, but he let Greenard walk, who is younger than Hunter, has a smaller cap hit (4 years $76M), and has a higher pressure rate. The erosion of talent is not only a theme, it’s the plot. Players like Tunisil, Greenard, and Reid aren’t retained by the team, and draft picks miss too often. Suddenly, the Texans are light at premium positions and relying on Demeco Ryans (a Caserio hire to be fair), CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, and a few other notable pieces to save them.
Compare that setup to a championship aspirational team like Baltimore. After the Ravens hit on Lamar Jackson, they began supplementing around him at premium positions, leading to a high-quality OLine, DLine, and Secondary, with their weakness being their receiving room that Lamar has the opportunity to make up for with his excessive talent.
The reason I set out to write an inflammatory article denouncing the accomplishments of a highly respected GM like Nick Caserio is that this team-building philosophy seems doomed. Going into the 2025-26 NFL season, the Texans have supplemented their weaknesses by signing less impactful players on their offensive line than they sent out, trading for Christian Kirk to fill the Tank Dell/Setfon Diggs sized hole, and crossing their fingers on day two and three picks to hit to help fill some voids. Unless Caserio adjusts his long-term planning and improves hit rates on premium draft picks, the Texans risk wasting the prime years of CJ Stroud under a brittle supporting cast.
The Verdict
Well, since you read this far into the article, I’ve already had time to squeeze every drop of money I can out of you to fund my horrible, horrible podcasting addiction, so I’ll cut to the chase on this.
Does Nick Caserio Fucking Suck? Probably not (hang in there before you call this clickbait on Truth Social). Caserio oversaw the Deshaun Watson trade and (maybe possible stumbled ass backwards into) the CJ Stroud pick. He made a smart hire at head coaches after pulling the eject cable on a bad hire after one year, and he’s strung together enough hits in the draft and free agent pool to win a hyper-competitive AFC South twice in a row.
BUT
He has missed across the board on late round picks as well as exchanging quality starters at premium positions for question marks or downgrades. Caserio may have been buoyed early in his career by the return for the Deshaun Watson trade, but now, he is running out of time on that bump. Time will tell if he can extend that with the Tunsil deal or other moves not yet known. For now, he’s walking a thin line between franchise cornerstone and hot seat, and that can change very suddenly.
This time last year, we talked about Bobby Slowik as the next Shanahan brand guy who would get a shot at the head coaching job, and now he’s the Passing Game Coordinator for the Miami Dolphins.
Caserio is at the point now where he needs players like Jaylin Noel, Jayden Higgins, Aureibtae Ersey and Jaylen Reed to hit because there isn’t enough veteran depth at those positions to suppliment the Texans bluechip players, and if they don’t hit, we could be looking at Assistant Passing Game Coordinator for the Miami Dolphins Nick Caserio in the next few years.
