On Saturday w/ Mike Regan – College Football Week 9, Ohio State Fans. Stop Laughing, and A Military Conspiracy.

It’s time for another edition of On Saturday with Mike Regan. We have marched another week closer to the College Football Playoffs. This past Saturday we saw playoff hopes die, some barely survive, and some ugly attempts at offensive football. There’s another big slate of games coming up this week. Even if there wasn’t, I would still lie and say there was. No one would read the article if I said, “This week’s games will put you to sleep faster than watching Air Force vs Navy again.” Now let’s take a moment to look back at week eight before we jump ahead. 

College Football: Week 8

Is that how Top Ten teams are supposed to look?

#7 Penn St. at #3 Ohio St.

Final: Ohio State 20-12

The Game of the Week. 

A Big10 showdown between top-10 teams with playoff dreams. 

By the time it was over, I felt like both teams were over-ranked going in. To be fair, I already thought that of Penn St. but I was giving The Buckeyes the benefit of the doubt. Everybody going into this game was picking the under and understood it would be a defensive battle for the most part. If you watched the game tape, and looked at the underlying numbers, it was clear the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively. Their scoring against bad teams was a mirage covering up a stale, slow, and unexplosive offense.

If you were one of the college football journalists attempting to be nice, you would call their offense “complimentary” to their top ten defense. It was clear they would struggle to put up points against Ohio State’s defense. The bigger question was whether or not Ohio St. could put up points. They have some very talented skill-position players, including that Marvin Harrison Jr. guy, who can make chunk plays. However, last time out against one of the nation’s top defenses, Notre Dame, it wasn’t pretty. 

The final score of 20-12 Buckeyes doesn’t really tell the whole story. There were 14 drives in the first half, nine were punts. The three drives that produced points gave us a 10-6 score at the intermission. That 14th drive I haven’t mentioned yet was at the end of the 2nd quarter when OSU got the ball back with 42 seconds on the clock, all their timeouts, and took a knee. That’s how rough this game was. Ryan Day had time on the clock, timeouts, Marvin Harrison Jr., and still decided, “Screw this, let’s go to half.”

The most painful moment to watch was in the 3rd. Penn State made a big stop on 4th and goal from their own two-yard line. What a big momentum shifter! The offense follows up by going three and out. It gets worse, during the punt the ball ends up touching the leg of an Ohio State player and the Nittany Lions recover the ball at midfield. 

The tides have turned! Gifted a second chance Penn State’s offense returns to the field, fired up by the turnover they drove down the

-never mind.

They gained zero yards and went three n’ out. 

I’m not throwing this all on the players. Sure you can point out that the Nittany Lion receivers struggled to get separation or that the Buckeyes pass rushers were in QB Drew Allar’s kitchen constantly, but some fingers need to be pointing at James Franklin and his coaching staff. Both of Penn State’s first half field goals came after offensive coordinator Mike Yurich called a run play on 3rd and 13, and 3rd and 5. Everybody in the world was asking Head Coach James Franklin where the explosive plays were, not just why aren’t they working, but will they ever take a chance and call some.  He continued to blow off those questions with little concern. Then he walked into Columbus on Saturday and said, “Yeah, my bad, we don’t have any.”

Penn State averaged 1.9 yards a carry, they went 1-16 on 3rd down, and they had nine drives that consisted of 4 plays or less. According to the box score they had 240 yards of offense, but watching the game in real time, it felt like they had closer to 40. The discrepancy is probably that 73 of those yards came from the garbage-time touchdown drive that made the final score 20-12. I’ll say it now, any Penn State fan or apologist, who utters the sentence “We only lost by one score to the third-ranked team in the country.” Will get a bag of flaming dog poop delivered to their doorstep every Saturday for the rest of the season. That excuse doesn’t apply to these kinds of one-score losses.  

Ohio State fans. Stop laughing. 

The Buckeyes also averaged 1.9 a carry and ran the ball 41 times. Around run play call 30 or so, that should’ve been considered abuse by the Buckeye coaches on their ball carriers. You accumulated a total of 368 yards. Scratch that. Your offense totaled 202 yards while Marvin Harrison Jr. threw the rest of the offense in his backpack and carried them to a win racking up 11 receptions for 162 yards along with an 18-yard tuddy late in the fourth. 

He also did this without his running mate WR Emke Egbuka. This game didn’t prove that Ohio State is a championship contender. It just reaffirmed how unreal Marvin Harrison Jr. is. “Maserati Marv” as Gus Johnson likes to call him, showed an unreal ability to get open against a strong defense. He erased the memory of his Notre Dame performance from everyone’s minds.

Credit where credit is due. Both of these defenses are extremely talented and played great. However, when up against the top defenses in the country legit playoff teams do not struggle to this level. Not to kick a Nittany Lion when it’s down, but your performance was less egregious. It was expected. I’m more disappointed in the Buckeyes. It’s going to be a real eye-opening experience for a lot of Ohio State truthers in three weeks when Michigan goes to Happy Valley. If Michigan puts up big points on Penn State then the power gap between the Wolverines and Buckeyes will become evident. 

The Utes do it again

#14 Utah at #18 USC

Final: Utah 34-32

The Trojans lost two games last season. Both of them to the Ute’s. First in the regular season, and then again in the Pac-12 Championship. 

In order for Lincon Riley’s team to bounce back after their loss last week, they would need to defeat their kryptonite team. An intriguing storyline going into this one was the classic tale of the stoppable force meeting a moveable object. Was Utah’s offense so bad that USC’s defense would finally have a good game, or was the Trojan defense so bad that even the Utes would be able to move the ball against them? Which scenario did we get Saturday night in Los Angeles? Prior to this game Utah was gaining 322 yards of offense a game. Against USC they put up 482. In the four games Utah QB Bryson Jones had played in, three of which were starts, he had thrown only one touchdown. Against USC he tossed three. 

Notre Dame’s ability to generate turnovers against USC was a big story of that game. It gave the Irish a lot of short-field scoring drives. They only had one scoring drive that was over 50 yards and three of their scoring drives were under 15 yards. That wasn’t the case for Utah. They were making adult-sized scoring drives while USC only turned the ball over once. Lincoln Riley probably realized they were in for another tough defensive day when the Utes went 75 yards in three plays for a touchdown on their opening drive. 

Following a 61-yard punt return, Caleb Williams scored on an 11-yard run to give his team the slim 32-31 lead with 1:46 left in the game. This is something people aren’t mentioning in the discourse following this game. Williams didn’t play great, but he delivered in a big moment and gave his team the lead late.

One stop against the worst offense in the Pac-12. That was all USC needed. Another game of letting an opposing offense move up and down the field could be saved. 11 plays and 54 yards later the Utes hit the walk-off field goal to sink any hope of The Trojans reaching the college football playoff. 

Afterward, Utah’s head coach gave us the quote of the week when speaking about his QB Bryson Jones, he said “ They’ve got a Heisman trophy winner…But we’ve got ourselves a pig farmer at quarterback, so we’re proud of that guy.”

Caleb Williams has been a topic among sports journalists, podcasters, and the like. A lot of talk and tweeting of stats about his track record against tough teams. The conversation of UNC’s Drake Maye being the first QB taken in the 2024 NFL draft has picked up some steam. Which to be fair, isn’t ridiculous and is a conversation that NFL teams were already having because they wouldn’t be doing their job if they weren’t. Here’s my take though pertaining to Caleb Williams:

We all need to settle down.

The truth is the hype around Caleb Williams got out of control after last season. I won’t put this person on blast, but I saw a tweet the other day that in mentioning USC being out of the playoff race referred to Williams as “the greatest college QB of all time.” Many were calling him the next Patrick Mahomes before he ever took a snap this year. People are so quick to anoint people the next GOAT, then drop them the second they show any sign of struggle. 

Do I think Williams is the best college QB of all time? No. Does he have all the tools and skills to warrant being drafted in the top five along with Drake Maye? Absolutely. Win or lose at the college level, Caleb Williams is still a guy who can do stuff like this

Backpage Headlines 

#6 Oklahoma Survive against UCF

Rested, coming off a bye week, and riding the momentum of their big win over Texas, The Sooners ended up in way more of a fight than expected versus Central Florida. It was back and forth for the whole sixty minutes and the game was down to Oklahoma stopping UCF on a two-point try to sneak out with the 31-29 dub. It’s tough to tell if this should be taken as a red flag for The Sooners, or just another weird Big 12 game that the conference seems to have every other week.

UVA upset #10 UNC 

Virginia walked into Chapel Hill, North Carolina as 24-point underdogs with a 1-5 record. They left with a W after pulling off the biggest upset of the season so far. The Cavaliers took the 31-27 lead with just under 9 minutes and then immaculately locked it down, giving up no more points. The Tarheel’s final three possessions went three n’ out, turnover on downs, and an interception with 26 seconds remaining to put it on ice. UNC dropped to 17th in the polls and I’m surprised that fall was farther.

It’s well documented, that I’ve come to really like this North Carolina team as they made their way to a 6-0 start and climbed the polls. I’m on record saying they’ve been disrespected by bettors, and last week I even claimed they should have been a single-digit ranked team in the polls. I didn’t just have it penciled in that we were getting Florida St. vs UNC ACC title game featuring two undefeated teams. I wrote it down in a permanent marker and had it laminated. Then things hit a big-time speed bump Saturday against UVA. I’ll sum up that loss for the Tar Heels in one word. Oof.

How did we do on the books?

Before I go over how my featured bets did this week, I have to make a statement that many may find offensive. 

I no longer support our military… academy’s football teams. 

Outside of what I highlighted last week, I also took Navy +10.5 at home against Air Force. The word all week was that Air Force starting QB, Zac Lerrier, would miss the game due to a knee injury sustained the previous week against Wyoming. As one would expect with Air Force’s run-heavy triple-option playstyle, Lerrier is also a massive part of their run game. This seemed like a lock without him on the field. Then Suddenly, On Saturday (w/ Mike Regan) he was good to play. 

This was a blatant conspiracy by Air Force against me. I don’t know how I ended up on their radar. I guess my search history consisting of sports, pro wrestling, and video game lore seems fishy to them. 

The conspiracy wasn’t all Air Force. The Navy also had me in their sights. Down 17-0, they scored a garbage-time touchdown with 55 seconds left to avoid the shutout. At this point, US Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, picked up the phone and informed Navy head coach Brian Newberry I never went to see Top Gun: Maverick. Seeing this as a blatant act of treason, Newberry decided to go for two! It was unsuccessful and Air Force covered. I’m not crazy. The evidence is all there. Wake up sheeple. 

You can check out my weekly bets here. 

Missouri(-7.5) vs South Carolina

Final Score: Missouri 34-12

If you’ve read this article in previous weeks, you know I’ve adopted Missouri as one of my teams this year. They got the big win over Kentucky last week, and this week played 2-4 South Carolina. SC isn’t an easy out like their record may suggest, they lost to Florida by only two points, and hung around with Georgia for the majority of that game before eventually losing 24-14. The Tigers jumped out to a 24-0 lead and went on to win 34-12. They looked legit by decisively beating up on a lesser opponent. My SEC pride and joy covered the spread. They also improved to 6-1 on the year, moved up to 16th in the polls, and damn it they play Georgia next.

#24 Iowa(-3.5) vs Minnesota

Final Score: Minnesota 12-10 

For the second straight week, I broke one of my own betting rules. Last week it was, “Never bet against your own team.” This week it was, “Never bet on Iowa.”

Iowa is the kind of team I usually fade because their offense is terrible, but they get the benefit of the doubt by people due to playing in a Power Five conference and having a good defense.

However, the truth is they are just like the Wisconsins of the world. They are a second-tier team in the Big Ten that can’t compete with the good teams. I was bet-blind by just how bad Minnesota has been. The 12 points scored by the Golden Gophers is honestly double what I thought they would.

#7 Penn State(+4.5) at #3 Ohio State

Final Score: Ohio St. 20-12

This bet put up a hell of a fight. 

It hung on as long as it could. 

However, similar to Penn State’s defense, it couldn’t make up for their team’s poor offense forever. A field goal at the 9-minute mark in the fourth wounded it. Then, just like the Nittany Lions, late in the fourth Marvin Harrison Jr. took my bet behind the woodshed and put the nail in the coffin. Rest in Peace Penn St. +4.5.

BYU (ML) vs Texas Tech

Final Score BYU: 27-14

Allow me to take a victory lap. I said the points weren’t necessary and that the Tech offense was in for a rough day. 

Well, call me Joseph Smith, because it turns out I’m a profit. 

The Red Raiders shot themselves in the foot all day. They had 9 penalties for 80 yards and 4 total turnovers including a scoop in score by the Cougars. BYU only put up 277 yards of offense, but that’s all you need when you have god on your side. He must be watching over BYU games, because based on what I’ve had to go through as a fan, the bastard sure as hell hasn’t been watching over Notre Dame. 

College Football: Week 9

Where’s my money going?

#6 Oklahoma (-10) at Kanas

Odds: -105

Revenge bet? Hell yes, revenge bet. 

The last time Kansas played I took them -3 against Oklahoma State. The Jayhawk’s defense gave the Cowboys their highest point total in a game all season scoring 39. It also apparently unlocked something in the Ok St. offense as they set a new high the next game when they scored 48 against West Virginia. 

Now I’m fading Kansas on spite. 

Big 12 games can get weird, as evidenced by Oklahoma barely escaping UCF with a win this past weekend. 

I’m just going to ignore that though and focus on the facts. Oklahoma has the top-graded defense in the Big 12 and the 17th-highest in the FBS. They have the 10th-ranked defense by EPA per play in the country. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel has the highest EPA among starting QBs in the Big 12 and is going up against a Kansas defense that’s up nearly 400 yards a game. Spite and vengeance for the win!

#17 UNC(-11.5) at Georgia Tech

 Odds: -105

This line is a complete overreaction to the Tar Heels loss. 

As I’ve mentioned many times, college football is chaos. Over the years we’ve seen plenty of highly ranked teams get caught off guard against a bad team. Georgia Tech is not only giving up the most yards per game in their own conference, they are giving up the ninth most in the entire FBS. 

For those who may not know, the FBS consists of 133 teams. 

UNC has a future top-five pick, and Heisman-caliber QB in Drake Maye, but there’s more to it than that. This is the highest-graded run offense team per PPF in the ACC going up a Tech run defense that has an EPA per play of 0.188. The 11.5 is a no-brainer, and I may even alt-spread that up to -13.5 to get the plus odds.

Wyoming (ML) at Boise State

Odds: +172

I don’t know how often people with no rooting interest are tuning into Mountain West Conference games, but one thing you should know is that Wyoming has a good football team this year. Their only losses are to Texas and an Air Force team that is now ranked 19th in the country along with a perfect 7-0 record. 

Outside of this being a road game for Wyoming, I think the line is being influenced by Boise State’s ability to move the ball offensively. Their offensive strength has been the run game. Meanwhile, they have struggled to find success through the air. Their two QBs, Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen, collectively have 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and have averaged a 57% completion rate with an ADOT of 6.5 yards through seven games. 

Wyoming has a strong secondary that should be able to completely nullify the Bronco’s passing attack, which will let their defensive front key in on the run. On the flip side, Andrew Peasley, the QB for the Cowboys could be set up to have his best day of the season. His stats may not blow anybody away, but one thing he’s improved on is his decision-making. Going from a 10-9 touchdown to interception ratio last season, to 12-2 through six games this year. When you factor in he’s facing a Boise State secondary giving up over 300 yards a game, I like Josh Allen’s alma mater as road dogs. 

BYU(+17.5) at #7 Texas

Odds: -110

Going with Cougars again this week. I was a little surprised by the line here. Thought it might move more due to the injury at QB for Texas. 

The 3rd QB on many draft boards, Quinn Ewers, suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder during the team’s win against Houston. Freshman Malik Murphy stepped in late in the third after Ewers’s injury, and only threw the ball once, but has since been named the starter going forward. Hopefully, things go well for Murphy, because the call for Arch Manning by Longhorn fans will happen fast if he struggles.

A four-star recruit, Murphy has great size at 6’5” 238 lbs and a lot of potential. As I mentioned earlier, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian only had him throw the one pass when he took over against Houston, and he’s only thrown eight passes in his whole college career. 

Malik Murphy will be making his first start against a BYU team that’s played very well this season. With his more experienced QB sidelined, Sark will lean on the 6.4 yards a carry he’s getting from star running back Johnathan Brooks. 

It’s admittedly recency bias, but I liked what we got from the BYU defense against Tech. With a more conservative game plan from the Longhorns and a freshman QB making his very first start, BYU should be able to avoid a one-sided blowout. No chance in hell they win, but they can keep it a respectable loss and cover. 

Two Top 25 Showdowns

#8 Oregon(6-1) at #13 Utah(6-1)

Isn’t it ironic that the final year of the Pac-12 as we know it is also the year I can’t stop covering them? Kinda makes a fella wonder. Don’t it? 

Utah has no offense. I repeat, Utah has no offense. Their performance against USC was more about how bad the Trojans defense is. Prior to that game, they had scored 130 points through six games. They have the second-worst EPA per play on offense next to the mighty 2-5 Stanford Cardinals. Just for the sake of comparison, Stanford scored six points against Oregon. Utah is basically west coast Iowa in that they win on the back of their defense. 

While the Ducks’ defense isn’t UCLA or Utah caliber, they are still multiple steps above USC. Utah’s only hope of moving the ball will be on the ground. At face value that plays into the strength of Oregon’s defense that’s only allowing 95 yards a game. I say face value because you have to factor in Oregon’s high-scoring offense, which forces opposing teams to abandon the run as they fall behind.

It’s a real style makes fights scenario. Can Utah’s defense slow down the Ducks offense and the pace of this game? If they can keep it low-scoring and their run game in play they may have a shot in this one. Or will Bo Nix and the Ducks offense be able to overwhelm a stout Utes defense to put the game out of reach? 

The closest level of offense to Oregon that Utah has played so far are Oregon St. and USC. The Oregon St. game is an interesting one, in that it shows how these big games tend to go for teams who are all defense. Utah held the Beavers to their lowest-scoring day all season, but they also could only score seven points and lost the game 21-7. Oregon has a better QB and a better overall offense than State. Even if Utah can mitigate the damage all the Ducks need to do is have a two-score lead in the second half. That will be too big of a gap for the Utes to close. 

This game also carries heavy Pac-12 championship ramifications. Both teams have only one conference loss. Whoever gets their second here will effectively be out of the conversation. On top of that Oregon needs to run the table and win the conference title if they want to be in playoff contention. 

#20 Duke(5-2) at #18 Louisville(6-1)

Two top-25 teams coming off their first conference loss of the season. 

The Blue Devils, on the road, hung with #4 Florida State for most of that game. They even jumped out to a 10-0 lead and were up three going into the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, they lost QB Riley Leonard halfway through the third and things collapsed on the way to a 38-17 loss. 

Meanwhile, prior to their bye week, Louisville lost on the road to Pittsburgh. Just a week removed from an impressive win against Notre Dame, the Cardinals got caught by the one-loss Panthers. It completely changed my perception of the team as they looked sloppy and turned the ball over three times.

Louisville will need to find the performance they had against the Irish for this game against Duke. If you make mistakes against this Blue Devils defense they will make you pay. Through seven games this season, the total points scored against Duke’s D has yet to hit the 100-point mark. Louisville QB, Jack Plummer will have his hands full against a defense that allows only 179 yards per game through the air and has 6 picks on the year.

On the other side, similar to when they played Notre Dame, Louisville’s defense actually lines up well against Duke’s offensive strength. They are a run-heavy team that’s scored 18 touchdowns on the season and features a pair of dangerous backs. It’s an almost even split of carries between Senior Jordan Waters, who is averaging 6 yards a carry, and Junior Jaquez Moore who averages 5.7. The Blue Devils’ offensive line will have to fight to make room for their running back tandem against a Cardinals run defense that has the second-lowest EPA per play in the ACC. 

Duke’s running attack could also be impacted by the availability of the aforementioned Riley Leonard. Leonard has carried the ball 28 times on designed runs for 351 yards and four touchdowns. The Junior QB is still questionable as of this writing and the outcome of this game could hinge on if he plays. With UNC getting upset last week, the race to face Florida State in the ACC title game is wide open. This game will knock out one of the contenders for that spot.

Best of the Rest

Colorado(4-3) at #23 UCLA(5-2)

Say what you want about Coach Prime and his squad, their games are entertaining as hell. Five have been one-score games, and the Shaduer Sanders-led offense can put up points. The Buffalo’s have put up 30 or more six times and dropped a 40 burger four times. 

Now here’s the twist. 

This week they’re facing the best defense in the Pac-12 and arguably all of college football, the Laiatu Latu-led Bruins. Whether you’re rooting for Colorado, or if you’re one of those fun-hating people who want Coach Prime to fail, this will be the game for you. 

#11 Oregon St.(6-1) at Arizona(4-3)

I almost made this game one of my featured bets but I’m a coward. 

This has upset written all over it. Freshman Noah Fifita stepped in at QB after an injury to starter Jayden De Laura and has played very well. In his three starts, Fifita has completed 72.8 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns to only two picks. 

Fifita is 1-2 as a starter but all of those games have been against top-25 teams and they’ve been in them. The Wildcats only lost by one score to now #5 Washington, lost by two points after taking USC to triple over time, and most recently demolished #19 Washington St. 44-6. The Beavers are going on the road against a hot team. Fifita Fever is running wild! Let’s go cats!

#25 JMU(7-0) at ODU(4-3)

Shout out to Taylor Heinike and his alma mater Old Dominion University, but they don’t stand a chance in this one. 

That’s not why I’m highlighting this game. It’s because everybody needs to watch James Madison games and angry-tweets the NCAA. The Dukes made the jump from FCS to FBS last year and have done very well for themselves in the Sun Belt Conference. This season they are undefeated, arguably the best team in their conference, and broke through the wall to get ranked in the AP poll despite being a group of five teams. 

However, the NCAA bylaws suck. They state that for two years after moving up to FBS, a team cannot play in a bowl game or even play in their own conference championship game. Is that to protect the dog shit programs that have been in the FBS for a while and are getting shown up by the new kid? The only way JMU head coach Curt Cignetti will get to coach his team in a bowl is if there are not enough eligible 6-6 teams. 

JUSTICE FOR JAMES MADISON!!! 

Not the former president, just to clarify.