Tankology

There are many types of scientific studies. You have biologists, chemists, epidemiologists, and even Scientologists. Those fields are all child’s play though compared to my area of expertise. I am a Tankologist. I study sports tanks to help better understand just how often they actually work, and see if “Tank or Titles” are words to live by or a cynical dangerous mindset. Now I am going to be bringing my findings here to Talent Alone. I’m going to go through some of the most iconic Tank Jobs in history and see if these savants of sucking were successful. We start this journey with the Indianapolis Colts who were tanking and banking on the old saying, “A little Luck goes a long way”.

The Player: 

Andrew Luck was one of the most complete QB prospects ever. Not to sound cliche, but it was almost like he was created in a lab with the things scouts look for. 6 ‘4”, 240lbs, ran a 4.67 40, big, could move in the pocket or take off and pick up yards on the ground. Luck played in a pro-style offense at Stanford. He could read defenses from left to right. He had enough poise in the pocket to step back and go through his options. He was the de facto number-one overall pick after his 2010 season at Stanford after leading the Stanford Cardinals to a 12-1 record, throwing for 3338 yds on a 70.7 completion percentage with 32 TDs and just 8 INTs. He could even run, ending the 2010 season with 453 rushing yds and 3 TDs

Stanford finished the year ranked number 5 in the country and capped it off by crushing Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl 40-13 where Luck went 18-23 for 287 yds and 4tds.

Then Luck got better in his final season. He finished the season with a 71.3 completion percentage, throwing for 3517 yds, and 40 TDs to 10 INTSs. The Cardinals would go 11-2 that season and while Luck did finish his college career with a Loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl, he still shined, going 27-31 for 347 yds and 2 TDs.

He also shares a fun fact with former QB legends like Peyton Manning and John Elway by being Heisman runner-up not once, but twice, coming in 2nd behind Cam Newton in 2010 and RG3 in 2011.

The Tank:

Right off the bat, this Colts tank had a different twist to it. Way back in the dark ages of 1998, the Indianapolis Colts drafted Peyton Manning, Quarterback, Tennessee, with the number one overall pick. Anybody who finds this kind of article interesting already knows all about Peyton Manning and what he accomplished with the Colts, so I’ll fast-forward to the 2010 NFL season. The Colts won their division, as per usual during the Manning era, with a record of 10-6. Unfortunately, they would lose in the wild-card round on a last-second field goal to the anomaly that was rookie year Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets. In May 2011 Manning would undergo surgery to fix a herniated disk in his neck. This however caused severe loss of strength in his throwing arm due to a pinched nerve. On top of that, he would need to get a second surgery, and a serious one too. He would undergo spinal fusion surgery in September of that year. All of this led to Manning being ruled out for the entire 2011 season and having his future put into question.  

Without one of the top five greatest QBs of all time to steer the ship, the Colts were abysmal. They started the 2011 season 0-13 before finishing with a 2-14 record led by a trifecta of QBs taking snaps. 39-year-old Kerry Collins went 0-3, Dan Orvlovsky went 2-3, and the legendary Curtis Painter went 0-8. The three combined for 14 TDs, 14 INTs, and 3223 yds while taking 35 sacks. For comparison’s sake, in 2010 Manning had 4700 yds while throwing 33 TDs to 13 INTs. When the dust settled their 2-14 record was just enough to beat out the 3-13 Minnesota Vikings for the number one overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, and this is where things got interesting.

Most times, when a team tanks for a player, it’s accompanied by a rebuild, and that process can often take multiple seasons to pan out. The Colts, however, attempted to pull off a single-season tank, and a one-move rebuild. Peyton Manning was the greatest Colts QB of all time. My apologies to all the Johnny Unitas stans out there, but it’s not comparable (and no one cares that you spent an afternoon watching black-and-white NFL highlights from the 60s on Youtube). As great as Peyton was though, the Colts found themselves at quite a crossroads. One road was sticking with Manning, whose career was in doubt due to his age after the spinal fusion, and was set to have his 5-year 90 million dollar extension kick in that summer. The other road led to arguably the highest touted QB prospect since John Elway, Andrew Luck. In the end, Colts Owner Jim Irsay decided to sever ties with the man that returned the Colts to relevance and won them their only Super Bowl since the team moved to Indy. On March 7th, 2012, The Indianapolis Colts released Peyton Manning. Along with releasing Manning, that offseason the Colts fired Team President Bill Polian, his son and then GM Chris Polian, and Head Coach Jim Caldwell. It was officially the beginning of a new era in Indianapolis.

There was never any doubt after the Colts officially released Peyton Manning. Andrew Luck was the future QB and Franchise star in Indianapolis. They had a rare opportunity in front of them. They had the chance to go from a Hall of Fame QB to another, and on April 26th, 2012 they made it official and selected Luck number one overall. The following day they took Luck’s Stanford teammate, TE Coby Fleener in the 2nd. They used their first 3rd round pick on Clemson TE Dwayne Allen and then traded their 4th and a 2013 5th to the 49ers to get back into the 3rd round and take Florida International WR TY Hilton. They would also send their 2013 2nd-round pick to Miami in return for stud CB Vontae Davis. The Colts would then retool their front office by bringing in Ryan Grigson as GM, Chuck Pagano as the new HC, Bruce Arians as OC, and Greg Manusky as DC to be the new Colts staff of the Andrew Luck era. With that, the Indianapolis Colts tank was over, and they opted for the short retool over a full rebuild. Their fans only had to suffer for one season and say a tearful goodbye to the Franchise’s greatest player. The Luck jerseys were flying off the shelves, and it was time to see how it would all play out.

The Results: 

Evaluating the success of this Tank got weird with the way it happened, and the results don’t make it any easier. The Andrew Luck era started off with mixed results as the Colts opened the 2012 season with a 2-3 record. Things would change, however, after HC Chuck Pagano was forced to go on leave for cancer treatment, and OC Bruce Arians took over as interim HC. From there, the Colts would go 9-2 to finish the season and earn a wild card spot, while Bruce Arians would win Coach of the Year. The Playoff run wouldn’t last long as they got steamrolled in the first round by the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. However, Luck did have a good rookie season throwing for 4374 yds and 23 TDs. He ended up second in AP Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, once again losing out to RG3.

Luck’s rookie season really mirrors his whole time in Indy. Up and down, sometimes it would seem it was all coming together just for it to come to an end too soon, but every season ended with some optimism because as long as Luck was behind center they had a chance. However, in the wake of Indianapolis drafting a Hall of Fame potential QB they continued to ignore many other holes in their roster. 

In Luck’s rookie season he still had Veteran wideout Reggie Wayne who stayed true to form and at the age of 34 put up 1355 yds at a clip of 12.8 per catch. That, added with break-out rookie TY Hilton made for a great duo, but it only lasted a year. Reggie Wayne tore his ACL during the 2013 season and wasn’t the same after. He retired after the 2014 season. Basically after his rookie season TY Hilton became the bona fide number 1 at receiver and he delivered. During his six seasons with Luck, Hilton had 7131 receiving yds, averaging 15.8 yds a catch, while hauling in 36 TDs. The problem was the Colts never brought in more skill position talent. This led to Luck having to work with what he had. In 4 of his 6 seasons, Luck’s second-best pass-catching option ended up being a TE, and we’re not talking about Kelce’s or Kittle’s here, we’re talking about Colby Fleener, Jack Doyle, and Eric Ebron. In 2014 Luck posted a career-high 4761 passing yds and a league-leading 40 passing TDs. Behind Hilton, Luck did this by throwing to a one-kneed Reggie Wayne, Colby Fleener, and Donte Moncrief. Luck and Hilton were continually leaned on to be the whole offense for the team. 

It goes beyond the pass catcher though. In 2012 5th-round pick Vick Ballard had a big rookie season rushing for 814 yds. He blew out his knee in week one of 2013, and then the poor guy tore his Achilles during practice the following summer. His career was sadly over. The Colt would use a committee of RBs the next two seasons none of which surpassed 600 yds. Help did finally come when the Colts signed Frank Gore who had 967 yds in 2015, and 1025 yds in 2016. They missed the playoffs both seasons.

In 2012 PFF ranked the Colt OL 31st in the league as they subjected a young Andrew Luck to 41 sacks. Things got better but slowly, they ranked 25th in 2013, followed by 17th in 2014, and 15th in 2015. However, they plummeted to 25th in 2016 and Luck was taken to the turf another 41 times. The OL finally figured it out in Luck’s final season when PFF ranked them 3rd in the league, but it’s just another example of the team either not fixing a problem or fixing it too late.

If we remove Andrew Luck and TY Hilton, from 2012 to 2017 the Colts drafted 44 other players and not a single one made a pro bowl. We live in a world where Mac Jones has been a pro bowler, meanwhile, the Colts drafted almost an entire team’s worth of players and none of them were even deemed worthy of being a replacement pro bowl selection. Time after time this franchise either never addressed an issue or addressed it too late. Here’s one fun example. In the 2013 NFL playoffs, the Colts made it to the divisional round where they were crushed by the New England Patriots 43-22. In that game, the Colt’s defense gave up 235 yds and 6 TDs on the ground. 4 of the TDs and 166 yds came from LeGarrette Blount who averaged 6.9 yds a carry. If you were an AFC team in the 2010’s you had to build your team with the expectation that going through the Patriots would be required to get to a Super Bowl. If they just dog-walked you in the playoffs, that would just add to the pressure to make adjustments to beat them next year. Unless you’re the Indianapolis Colts. The following playoffs they made it all the way to the AFC championship game where once again they were mercilessly kicked into the dirt by Belichick and company, while LeGarrette Blount walked all over their defense for 148 yds and 3 TDs. Football fans will always know the name LeGarrette Blount and that’s because of the Indianapolis Colts.

It goes beyond player decisions though. In all honesty, they should’ve cut bait on the Chuck Pagano/Ryan Grigson regime sooner.  That’s not an opinion, that’s a fact, Pagano and Grigson got canned after the 2017 season when they went 4-12 without Luck. The following season, they brought in Frank Reich as head coach, and some jabroni named Nick Siriani as OC, along with Chris Ballard as GM, who remains in that position today. They had the 5th ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense. The Colts finally drafted a couple of pro bowlers in Quentin Nelson and Shaq Leonard. Most importantly Andrew Luck had protection. They had the least sacks in the league with only 18 and PFF had them ranked 3rd in offensive line ratings. However, as I’ve painstakingly mentioned. It was too late and here’s why.

On August 24th, 2019 Luck shocked the world by retiring just a few weeks before his 30th birthday. Luck cites the never-ending process of injuries and rehabs not letting him live the life he wants to live as a reason. I still remember watching that press conference. Luck was emotional and tearful. You could tell he was sincere in that the wear and tear he experienced had taken a toll on him. Those are the kind of things that can make an athlete start to lose his love for his sport, but you could also see that he was truly torn apart emotionally about deciding to walk away from the game that had been his life since he was a kid. Everything he did since high school was focused on his football future and eventual NFL career, and now he was willingly choosing to walk away from it. 

In the end Luck’s NFL career was only 7 seasons long, including the 2017 season which he missed in it’s entirety. In the 6 years he did play, he took the Colts to the playoffs four times, with one Conference Championship appearance. He finished with a record of 53-33 and 4-4 in the payoffs. In the regular season, he had career passing yards of 23,671, an average of 275.2 per game. Keep in mind, while the sample size is smaller, that’s more than Tom Brady or Peyton Manning averaged, it’s also more than Aaron Rodgers currently averages. Luck had a TD-to-INT count of 171-83 and a 60.8 completion percentage when he retired. The numbers were all there. Luck was as good as billed, and delivered for the Colts. The problem was the front office never delivered for him. 

Here is a list of every Andrew Luck injury that he missed time with since he was drafted in 2012:

• Sprained Shoulder
• Lacerated Kidney
• Partially Torn Abdominal Muscle
• Torn Cartilage in his Ribs
• Concussion
• Shoulder Surgery
• Calf Strain

In the end Luck’s career should’ve been longer, but his franchise failed him. After spending over a decade with one of the greatest QBs of all time under center the Colts just continued to think having a top QB would solve all problems, but never stopped to think why Peyton Manning only won them one SuperBowl or why they only made it to the SuperBowl twice. 

Aftermath and Verdict:

Post Luck’s retirement the Colts continued to think they were only a QB away. They signed Phillip Rivers in 2020 who took them to the playoffs and were knocked out in the first round, then they traded for Carson Wentz and went 9-8 missing the playoffs, and playing with the wrong hand. Most recently they signed Matt Ryan last season. They ended up 4-12-1 and have the third overall pick in the NFL draft. After years of QB chasing and continued diminishing returns, the Colts finally seem poised to enter a rebuild. 

In grading a tank, how a player turned out weighs heavily, and Andrew Luck did what he was expected to do. However, Jim Irsay and company didn’t hold up their end of that deal. As a football fan, I feel short-changed. I should be getting to watch a veteran Luck duel it out with Mahomes and Allen in the playoffs but I can’t. Take away the playoffs and team accolades, we should be about to enter the 11th season of Andrew Luck’s career as a top 5 QB in this league and we are not. I started this article with the cheesy and tongue-in-cheek pun that “a little luck goes a long way”. Well if that was the hypothesis, it was proven wrong. So for that, and that reason alone, the tank for Andrew Luck is graded as FAILED!