On Saturday w/ Mike: Week 10 Review and Week 11 Preview

It’s time for your weekly dose of college football. It’s time for the latest edition of On Saturday.

Week 10 may have had the most exciting Saturday of the season and it just happened to be the week following the release of the first CFP rankings. That’s either a random coincidence or proof that sports are all a work. Either way, I’m not complaining.

We’re coming down the home stretch now. Three more weeks of the regular season followed by championship weekend, and still a whole lot to get sorted out. Per usual though, before we look ahead, let’s review what happened this weekend.

Week 10 TL;DR

#22 Oklahoma State Gets The Final Dub in Bedlam Over #9 Oklahoma 27-24

Bedlam is one of the coolest names for a rivalry in sports. It’s also one of the longest and most lopsided rivalries. It started in November of 1904 when OU won their first meeting 75-0. No that’s not a typo. 118 games later, The Sooners have a slight lead with a record of 91-20-7, but it was the Cowboys who got the last laugh. We covered it a bit here.

This long-standing rivalry game will be put on ice for the foreseeable future as Oklahoma heads to the SEC next year, and the teams can’t find room on the schedule to keep it going. If this is the end of Bedlam, OK State gave the Sooners a big middle finger on their way out the door in the form of an upset. Adding insult to injury, with this win, The Cowboys have jumped OU in the Big 12 standings and look to be headed to the Big 12 championship game.

You learn a lot about a program from how it responds to a loss. A week after Oklahoma suffered its first conference loss and saw its undefeated season come to an end, they were sloppy. They had twice as many penalties as OK St. and turned the ball over three times. In a game decided by three points, that’s what makes the difference.

#5 Washington Outlasts #20 USC 52-42

It was funny for a while but I feel bad for Caleb Williams now. Williams had a big game, throwing for over 300 yards, and scoring 4 total touchdowns, as USC went toe to toe trading blows with the number five team in the country.

It was all in vain.

Huskie running back Dillon Johnson, racked up 256 yards and 4 touchdowns as the Trojan defense was demolished once again. They were incapable of making a stop and got a 50 burger laid on them. After the game, Williams leaped into the first row of the stands and into his mother’s arms. He appeared to be sobbing as his mother consoled him and covered his face from the cameras.

I honestly don’t have an opinion on that ending scene from Williams, as his frustration with his final college season emotionally boiled over. However, there are a lot of people who won’t look at it in a good light. The following day, USC announced they fired DC Alex Grinch, a decision they needed to make five weeks ago. It’s been reported that Grinch is headed home to Mount Crumpit and is the frontrunner to be the next head coach of the Whoville Whoosiers.

…

Screw you, that was funny.

#12 Missouri Hangs with #2 Georgia 30-21

Shout to my Missouri Tigers who walked into Athens Georgia and put up a fight against the undefeated defending national champs. Mizzou wideout Luther Burden III is WR1 in the 2025 draft and is the best wide receiver in college football without the last name Harrison. The Cook-to-Burden connection came out swinging against The Bulldogs. 

Burden tweaked his ankle late in the first half and it slowed down the Mizzou pass attack. They managed to keep pace, thanks in part to RB Corey Schraded and his 112 yards on the ground, but in the end, Georgia did what championship-level teams do.

Brady Cook threw a rough interception in the middle of the fourth down one score that led to Georgia taking a two-score lead, and that really felt like the finishing blow. Missouri still should have their heads held high. Playing tough against a Bulldog team of this caliber is a strong sign for the future of this program under head coach Elijah Drinkwitz

#8 Alabama runs over #14 LSU 42-18

Nothing made me happier than seeing current Bama offensive coordinator Tommy Rees end any remaining hope of LSU and Brian Kelly winning the SEC or making the CFP.

Rees is a former Notre Dame QB who played for Brian Kelly for four seasons while Kelly was the coach of The Irish. He then joined Kelly’s coaching staff at Notre Dame in 2017 as the QB coach before taking over as OC in 2020. When Kelly left for LSU he offered the OC spot to Rees. He declined and stayed at Notre Dame for the 2022 season before taking the Alabama job this season. This was their first time facing each other on opposing coaching staffs, and round one went to Rees.

Now that I’m done gloating about my boy dabbing on Kelly, I have to put over Jalen Milroe. It was clear LSU came into the game aware of how dangerous Milroe is throwing deep. They kept dropping players back to give their secondary help. The Crimson Tide were ready and adjusted. If Milroe’s deep ball isn’t an option, then turn to the other aspect of his game where he excels. His legs.

Milroe ran for 155 yards and 4 TDs. You have to give props to LSU QB Jayden Daniels though who was more than ready for that challenge. Daniels ran for 163 and a touchdown on top of the 219 yards and 2 TDs he added passing.

The turning point came early in the fourth when Daniels threw an interception from LSU’s own 27. Bama scored on the following possession to increase their lead to 14. Unfortunately, he never got the chance to mount a comeback. On the first play of LSU’s next possession, Daniels took a hit from Crimson Tide star edge rusher, Dallas Turner. Turner’s helmet ended up right under the facemask of Daniels, he drove the LSU QB into the ground and Daniel’s head slammed into the turf. They ended up calling a penalty for roughing the passer, but unfortunately, the LSU star QB was out for the remainder of the game with a concussion.

Hoping for a quick recovery for Daniels who is in the midst of a stellar season and, outside of the one pick, was having a great game against a very strong Alabama defense. 

Updated CFP Rankings

No changes up top this week, but some shifts down the line. However, there’s still plenty to pick apart in the second official College Football Playoff Rankings. The full rankings can be viewed here.  

Top Six

#1 Ohio State(8-0)  

#2 Georgia(8-0)  

#3 Michigan(8-0)  

#4 Florida State(8-0)

#5 Washington(8-0)  

#6 Oregon(7-1)

The Wrong

Iowa gets in at #22

Are we really doing this? Prior to the first rankings being released Iowa was coming off a 12-10 loss to the 3-3 Minnesota Golden Gophers, and weren’t ranked. Apparently, putting up 169 yards of offense en route to a 10-7 victory over 4-4 Northwestern was what the committee needed to see for them to be considered a Top 25 team in the country.

I know my first thought as I watched the Hawkeyes throw for 65 yards, was “This team should definitely be ranked ahead of Kansas State who took #7 Texas to overtime.”

Ohio State still #1

Someone warn Seabiscuit because I’m about to beat a dead horse.

Following the first rankings being released, a lot of people had the mindset of, “I get Ohio State at #1 because of their schedule, but this team isn’t good enough to win a national title.”

I wasn’t as pragmatic, feeling their performances outweighed their supposed strength of schedule. I used many characters in this article last week criticizing the Buckeye offense, and through one half of football against Rutgers, I was looking spot on.

Ohio State put up a big seven points and were down 9-7 going into Intermission. A 97-yard pick-six in the third by Buckeye cornerback Jordan Hancock finally woke the team up and a garbage time touchdown from Marvin Harrison Jr helped Ohio State push on the 19-point spread, 35-16. It was another underwhelming performance and was not as impressive as Georgia beating the #12 ranked team in the country. The Bulldogs should’ve jumped this team and taken over at number one. 

The disagreeable, but understandable

No Bump for #8 Bama

Apparently, the two-score win over #14 LSU didn’t impress the selection committee as they kept Alabama at #8. Standing ahead of them in the same spot from the previous week is #7 Texas. At face value, this seems understandable. The Longhorns did beat #23 Kansas State. However, there’s more to it when you look at how that game played out.

Texas jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead and was up 27-7 with under five left in the third quarter. Then, things just fell apart. Three unanswered Wildcat touchdowns, separated by two Longhorn fumbles, and the game was suddenly tied at 27. Deadlocked at 30 apiece the game ended up heading to overtime.

Texas got the ball first in OT and only managed to gain one yard before settling for the field goal. K-St needed the field goal to force double OT or a touchdown would win it. They ended up with 4th and goal from the four yard line. Wildcat head coach, Chris Klieman, made the Marco Belleneli ballsy call and went for the dub. Here’s how it went. . . 

I don’t hate the decision. I love teams and head coaches with the guts to be aggressive. However, considering the way the Longhorns offense had disappeared, I would’ve been tempted to kick the short field goal and take it to the second overtime. 

This shows that the committee is unlikely to shift its ranking if a team doesn’t lose. Texas survived its massive collapse and avoided the potential upset thanks to its defense, along with the controversial call by K-State.

I don’t find that nearly as impressive as Bama’s performance against LSU. In making that argument though, when pushed back against, I would concede. Mainly with the understanding that in the end, Texas was victorious over a Top 25 team, and had the head-to-head victory over The Crimson Tide.

The Correct

#21 Arizona 

It’s about time. I expressed my disagreement with Arizona getting left out of the first CFP rankings this season. They were playing very well and had back-to-back wins over Top 25 teams. They now have back-to-back-to-back Top 25 wins.

This past Saturday they played host to the #19 UCLA and their stout defense. They are the third-graded D in the country per PFF and are only giving up 16.3 points a game. As good as the Bruins’s defense is, they couldn’t stop the red-hot Wildcats and their break-out QB Noah Fifita.

Zona put up 429 yards of offense, while Fifita threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns leading his team to a 27-10 victory. Fifita Fever is running wild! I’m predicting this team won’t lose the rest of the year, ending the season 9-3 and getting inside the Top 15.

Utah stays put at #18

I thought the committee could be persuaded to bump up the Utes. There were losses from teams ahead of them, they dominated Arizona St. 55-3, and they face #5 Washington this week.

If you don’t think teams sometimes get a bump to help make games look better for increased viewership, you’re lying to yourself.

However, the committee saw that a big performance against two-win Arizona St. did not warrant a move up the ranking. Utah has some nice wins against UCLA and USC. Plus, their losses to Oregon St. and Oregon are not bad ones. So they should be ranked, but not inside of the Top 15. The team is very one-sided depending on its strong defense, while their offense has only performed well against some of the worst defenses in the country. Meanwhile, their wins against UCLA and USC were Top 25 wins at the time, but both teams now sit unranked. 

How we did on the books

As always you can see how I’m doing over all the past week on this amazing spreadsheet. I guaranteed a perfect 4-0 record this week. I lied and went 2-2. However, I did hit a 9-leg parlay, but according to my editor and Talent Alone co-founder, Adam Hess, I can’t include those winnings on the spreadsheet. Either way, let’s see where I showed my genius, and what bets kept me from reaching perfection.

#7 Texas(Alt spread -6.5) vs #25 Kansas St.

In my defense, If I didn’t alt-spread this one I *checks notes* still would’ve lost. As I mentioned when talking about the latest CFP Top 25, Texas completely collapsed. For about 75% of this game, I was cackling in self-satisfaction. Then it all went wrong, horribly horribly wrong. 

Iowa at Northwestern (Under 31.5)

These offensive juggernauts combined for 339 yards of total offense, and 17 points. No one scored until six minutes into the third. My only regret is not moving this Under down even further. This week Iowa plays Rutgers and the over under currently sits at 28.5, with the under currently the slight favorite. That number is so low, but the under is still very tempting. 

#22 Kansas(ML) at Iowa State

After the Texas debacle, I was ready to swear off betting on Big 12 games, but just when I thought I was out, Lance Leipold and the Jayhawks pulled me back in. Iowa State’s defense was able to slow down Kansas but three touchdowns and a pick-six ended up being enough. Iowa Scored with just under five left in the fourth to make it 28-21. However, the Jayhawks offense I was counting on to win this bet for me went on an impressive 4:53 drive to kill the clock and cash my bet.

Same Game Parlay: Alabama -2.5 & Under 61.5 pts

Hopefully, if you trailed me on this, you also followed my lead and live bet Bama at some point to get back your principal.

When the game was 14-7 after the first quarter, I was concerned. When it was 21-21 at the half, I knew that under was cooked. I’m not sure what I underestimated more, the Crimson Tide offense or just how bad the LSU defense is. Either way, I’m sorry. 

Where My Money is Going this Week

I got halfway to the goal of going perfect last week. Time to go get the other half with these spicy locks. All odds listed here are provided by FanDuel, and as always they can shift all the way until kick-off. So you better lock them down quickly.

#3 Michigan(-4.5) at #10 Penn St.

Odds: -115

I knew the spread would be lower than it should be, but being under a touchdown is just hilarious. “Michigan didn’t cover the 31.5 against Purdue, they won’t have Conor Satlions and his stolen signs, Penn State’s offense had a big day against Maryland.”

You can use whatever excuse you want to talk yourself into defending this line, or even betting the Nittany Lions. The reality is, Michigan is winning by at least two scores. I know Penn St. put up 51 against Maryland. However, The Terpins had given up an average of 32.3 points over their three games prior to Penn State, including 33 to Northwestern.

So how reassuring is that really? 

It’s completely fair to point out the lack of good competition Michigan has faced on their way to 9-0. I’ll point out they are the top-graded offense and the second-highest-graded defense in the FBS. Then I can point out they score 40.7 points a game and give up a measly 6.7.

They may have beaten weaker teams, but they demolished them. Eye-test-wise, they have looked far and away like the best team in the Big 10. The Nittany Lions could do absolutely nothing against the tough Ohio State defense, and now they are facing another one of the same caliber. On top of that, they are playing an offense that is better and way more explosive than the Buckeyes. Michigan QB, J.J. McCarthy is having a stellar season. He’s second in Heisman odds, fuelled by his 75% completion percentage that’s led to over 2100 yards, 16 touchdowns, and only 3 picks.

 I have been waiting for this game. I’ve mentioned it multiple times over the past few weeks. This is when The Wolverines dominate a good team that OSU struggled with and flex their superiority in the Big 10. This time next week Michigan will be ranked #1 in the CFP rankings, and you’ll be reading me gloat in this very article. I’m not completely discrediting the Penn St. D. There’s a possibility they could hold Michigan to its lowest point total of the season, but in that universe, this game still ends 27-6 in the Wolverine’s favor.  

#8 Alabama(-10.5) at Kentucky

Odds:-115

I’ve jumped on the Crimson-colored bandwagon. UK’s defense has taken a nose dive as conference play got going. Prior to their win over Mississippi State last week, they went on a three-game losing streak against Georgia, Mizzou, and Tennessee. All ranked opponents who are in the top tier of the SEC.

In those three, they gave up 51, 38, and 33 points. They also got run over, giving up an average of 181.6 yards a game rushing and gave up a 30+ yard passing touchdown each week. That literally plays into what Alabam likes to do. Attack on the ground and go deep. The last defense UK played that was the caliber of Bama was Georgia, and the Bulldogs held them to 13. 

Boston College (ML) vs Virginia Tech

Odds: -102

After a brutal 1-3 start, Boston College has been on a 5-game heater. They’ve improved to 6-3, are still in the race to make the ACC title game, and will be headed bowling after the regular season. A 6-6 record is required to be eligible for a bowl game.

The BC Eagles lead their conference on the ground with 210.6 yards per game. Sophomore QB Thomas Castellanos leads the way for that running attack with 825 yards, an average of 5.7 per attempt, and 10 touchdowns. Castellanos and the BC backfield should have a strong game against a subpar Hokies defense. On top of that, Boston College has improved defensively during their win streak and hasn’t given up more than 24 points in a game.

Texas Tech at #19 Kansas (Over 63.5)

Odds: +104

This has Big 12 Noon shootout written all over it.

The point total is currently set at 62.5, but I just can’t help myself. If I can bump something up or down a single point, and get to plus odds, I’m going to do it. It’s called chasing plus money, and it’s not recommended unless you have the prowess of a genius degenerate gambler like me.

I almost swore off betting Big 12 games, but hitting the Kansas money line last week cracked the code for me, and now I understand the keys to betting in this conference.

The strategy is twofold:

First, don’t bet on the spread,

and second, act as if Big 12 defenses don’t exist. 

Did you know 10 of the 14 Big 12 teams, average over 400 yards of offensive a game? This is why defensive grades and statistics in this conference are all BS. You can’t champion having the best defense in a conference where 70% of the teams score over 30 points a game. 

Here are the facts. Kansas running back, Devin Neal, is averaging 6.1/carry with 9 TDs on the year. Behind Neal, is Daniel Hishaw Jr., who averages 5.5/carry and has 7 tuddys. They’ve combined for 1321 yards in nine games.

988 of QB Jason Bean’s 1418 yards are on passes in the intermediate and deep range, with a TD-to-INT ratio of 8-1.

Texas Tech back Tahj Brooks has already broken the 1000-yard mark in just nine games.

Raiders QB Behren Morton returned last week and had his best game of the season with 283 yards, a 77% completion rate, 2 TDs, and added another tuddy on the ground.

Don’t ask me about the Kansas secondary or anything defense-related. It’s the Big 12. It doesn’t matter. This game is going to end 37-31.

One to watch: #13 Tennessee at #14 Missouri

Not an official bet that will go towards my record, but one I wanted to point out. Big game between Top 15 SEC schools, and the visiting Volunteers are the current favorite. Mizzou is currently +1.5 and +100 moneyline. This is most likely because of the injury status of star wideout Luther Burden III, who as I mentioned earlier, hurt his ankle during the Georgia game. He’s been limited at practice and is still listed as questionable. If you have an inside source at Missouri and can get the scoop that he’s playing, go ahead and bet it. If not, keep a close eye on the injury updates for this game. Stay away if he’s out, but if he’s good to go, grab the ML before it moves.

Week 11 Game of The Week

There’s a fair argument to be made that the game of the week is Michigan at Penn State, but I already touched on that and made it clear I think it’s going to be a one-sided affair. USC at #6 Oregon also has a chance of being a shootout. However, the line has ballooned to Oregon -15, and it very well could become a blowout.

I’m not sure how Lincoln Riley can get his team up after another deflating loss last week. If anything the more intriguing part of this one is if it turns up the heat on Lincoln Riley’s seat as head coach. Programs like USC don’t pay 11 million a year for a coach to go 8-4 with a Heisman-winning QB. Instead, once again, I decided to head down south to the Southeastern Conference for a battle between two Top Ten teams.

#9 Ole Miss at #2 Georgia

Georgia is in the midst of a three-game stretch against Top 15 competition. First was #12 Missouri, waiting next week is #13 Tennessee.

Sandwiched in between those is this week’s opponent, #9 Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin’s team isn’t officially out of making the SEC title game, but the odds are not in their favor. Their one loss, and lone conference loss, is to #8 Alabama. Unfortunately, Bama sits ahead of them with a perfect 6-0 record in conference play and the head-to-head win over Ole Miss. If the Rebels want to make the playoffs, they have to beat Georgia here. 

The Rebel defense has been good this season but has still had its poor games. They gave up 49 to LSU, and 33 to Texas A&M. While most people think of defense, when they hear Georgia, they have a very strong offense. Their run attack is well documented, but someone who deserves more credit is their Junior QB, Carson Beck. Behind one of the best O-lines in the country, he’s completed 72% of his passes, has over 2700 yards, and 16 touchdowns to only 4 ints.

Beck is not the most explosive quarterback, but he’s been consistent and avoids mistakes. He averages 7.7 yards per attempt on throws of 0-9 yards. Once again, doesn’t jump off the page, but it shows the ability to make smart decisions, get the ball to their athletes at skill positions, and have winning plays that move the ball down the field. He has 43 first downs in his 79 completions in that range.

You also can’t completely ignore Beck down the field. While he only has 19 completions of 20+ yards, those come along with 10 big-time throws. Add in the aforementioned backfield led by RB Daijun Edwards, and the Bulldogs have put up 37.8 points a game over their last four.

Any hope of an Ole Miss upset hinges on whether offensive-minded head coach Lane Kiffin and his team can score on Georgia.

Rebel’s QB Jaxson Dart has played very well this season, he has the ability to go deep and is more of a dual threat than Beck. He added 467 yards and 7 TDs to his offensive totals on the ground. However, he’s struggled when playing against top defenses. It will be no surprise to see Ole Miss lean on RB Quishon Judkins, who has contributed just under 800 yards rushing and 12 TDs for The Rebels. Going run heavy is the M-O for this Ole Miss team, as they have 319 attempts on the ground to 309 dropbacks.

The problem with how Ole Miss moves the ball is that Georgia is dominant against the run. It was surprising to see Mizzou RB, Corey Schrader manage to put 112 yards on the ground against Georgia, but the Bulldogs are still only giving up 77 per game against the run. This will force Ole Miss into more passing situations than they would like to be in. When that happens they will be staring at the best safety unit in the country, Malakai Starks, Javon Bullard, and Tykee Smith. Overall this Georgia secondary, who has snagged 11 picks this year, will be way too much for Jaxson Dart to handle. 

Despite this being a Top 10 matchup, the current line is Bulldogs -10.5, so bettors think the upset is unlikely. I’m prone to agree. I contemplated taking the +10.5 for Ole Miss, however, I couldn’t convince myself because of how strong Georgia is on both sides of the ball.

Georgia is either first or second in both Offense and Defense in the SEC per PFF grade. I don’t think they’ll shut out the Rebels offense, especially early when Kiffin has the time to scheme up the running game. However, when it gets late in this one and the clock becomes a factor, I expect a similar result to the Missouri game. Georgia will get the two-score lead and then lock it down, leaving Head Coach Lane Kiffin still in search of his first big win in the SEC since becoming the Ole Miss head coach in 2020.