On Saturday W/ Mike Regan: Part One – Rivalry Week Review
No that’s not a typo, you are getting a double dose of On Saturday! There were some great games that took place this past Saturday during rivalry week, some of which I want to talk about in more detail than usual. Trying to fit that into one article, that included a look ahead to the big week we have coming up next, wouldn’t do those games justice. So I’m breaking my weekly column, covering the chaos that is college football, into two parts this week. Part one will cover the big things that happened this weekend, and also see how my bets did.
Make sure to come back here to Talent Alone later this week for the ultimate preview to Conference Championship week. I’ll break down all TEN conference championship games. Some more than others, no offense to the Troy vs Appalachian St. showdown for the Sun Belt title, but there are some games that deserve more of the spotlight. On top of that I’ll predict winners for each game, and the best part, I will lay down a featured bet for each one. With all that out of the way, let’s get into the highlights of week 13 of the college football season.
Rivalry Week TL;DR
#2 Ohio State vs #3 Michigan
It wasn’t a hyperbole when Gus Johnson opened this game’s broadcast and referred to it as “essentially the first playoff game of the season.” Both teams entered undefeated and both teams in the Big Ten East, meaning there would be no chance for the losing team to get their win back in the conference championship like Oregon will against Washington. One team would leave this game with their first loss of the season and in need of an unfathomable amount of help for a chance of still making the playoffs. Add on that this game is truly one of, if not the, biggest rivalries in college football. It provided the perfect big-fight atmosphere in Ann Arbor for what was on the line. When the dust settled, and with head coach Jim Harbaugh watching from his couch at home, Michigan came out on top 30-24. The crowd of 100-thousand-plus stormed this field giving us one of those surreal visuals you only get in college football.
This view of the Big House is WILD 🤯@UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/0AopoZrAMw
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
Going into the game I feared we could be in for another plodding, slow, and frankly boring game like we did when these teams played Penn State. In many ways, that’s the feel the game had early on. The game started with four punts and only one first down until the first game-changing play happened when Michigan’s Will Johnson picked off Kyle McCord on the Buckeyes’ third drive. Michigan finally broke open the scoring with a Blake Corum touchdown. Corum’s workload was heavy as Michigan stuck more to the ground game and clock-chewing game plan. He finished with 22 carries for 88 yards and punched in two of the Wolverines’ three touchdowns on the day.
There was a certain level of control Michigan maintained throughout the game that lent itself to the game script UM wanted to follow. That’s not to say Ohio State ever felt out of it or that they had no chance. They responded and punched back multiple times to keep the game alive, even if Michigan only lost the lead for roughly four minutes when the game was tied in the third.
Going into the game I questioned JJ McCarthy and the Michigan offense. Particularly whether or not McCarthy could step up and make big throws when his team’s back was against the wall. While the Junior QB’s role in this game was once again diminished by the run, as Michigan ran the ball 39 times while he dropped back to pass 24 times, McCarthy did make some nice throws. Including firing the pass into a tight window to wideout Roman Wilson for a touchdown.
TOUCHDOWN MICHIGAN
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
After review, the TD stands for @Umichfootball 🔥 pic.twitter.com/AnRHE6F0wt
JJ McCarthy finished the game 16 of 20 for 148 yards and one touchdown. It wasn’t an eye-popping performance, but it tracks with what we’ve come to expect from McCarthy. He didn’t make any mistakes, had no turnovers, and only took one sack. According to PFF, he didn’t even have any turnover-worthy plays. In big games, Michigan aims to wear down opposing defenses on the ground and have their defense keep them in control of the game. In his second year as the starter, McCarthy is the steady hand that keeps the train on the track. As far as what will happen when it goes off the tracks, we still don’t know.
While Ohio State lost this game, I found that it was actually the most impressive they’ve looked all season. After Michigan kicked a field goal to increase its lead to 17-10, the Buckeyes systematically marched down the field on a 12-play 75-yard drive to tie the game up. Then in the fourth quarter after UM kicked another field goal to get up 27-17, Ohio St. countered with an impressive 65-yard touchdown drive to stay in the game. They did this even with the Wolverines slowing down the Buckeye’s run game. Ohio St. only had 37 yards on the ground in the first half and finished with 107 for the day on a pedestrian 3.8 a carry.
The lack of an impact run game put more pressure on Kyle McCord who ended up throwing the ball 30 times. He took the approach I advised in my preview of this game and looked for Marvin Harrison Jr. all day. MHJ caught five of his targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. He once again showed why he is the best player in the 2024 NFL draft. Adjusting to balls that were not perfectly thrown and making highlight reel plays. Including this one, where he had to come back to a slightly underthrown ball and made a one-handed catch. The defender committed passer interference and damn near tackled him prior to the catch, but it didn’t matter.
MASERATI MARV
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
Marvin Harrison Jr. with a GRAB for @OhioStateFB 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oiGHd4bQnx
There were three things that swung this game in Michigan’s favor. While Ohio State managed to fight back and stay in the game, the only problem was, the Wolverines were always able to stay on top. After Ohio St. scored to cut the deficit to three, UM showed the dominant bully capability they have to salt away games. They strung together a 13-play drive that lasted 7:00 minutes as Buckeye fans sat helpless. Wondering if their offense would even get a chance to see the field again. The drive may have ended in a field goal, but it did its job. It left Ohio St. with only a minute of time remaining and in need of a touchdown.
The second thing goes back to what I mentioned about JJ McCarthy being a steady-handed veteran. While Kyle McCord played as well as he could against a defense of this caliber, he’s not the experienced steady hand that McCarthy is. In his first year as the full-time starter, and in the biggest high-pressure game of his college career, McCord threw two costly interceptions. The first was the one I mentioned earlier that gave UM a short field and led to their first touchdown. The second was the most costly, as it ended the game. Hit as he threw, McCrods passed lost steam, sailed over the middle and into the diving arms of junior Michigan DB, Rod Moore.
INTERCEPTION@UMichfootball SEALS THE GAME 〽️ pic.twitter.com/37lF1aVeqo
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
The last thing that has to be mentioned is more of a sliding doors moment. After Ohio State’s game against Penn State, I questioned Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day’s decisions at the end of the first half. With 42 seconds left and timeouts at his disposal, Day took the conservative route, kneeling the ball and heading into the intermission up 10-6. He made a similar decision this weekend.
After getting the ball with three and half minutes left in the second, The Buckeyes managed to march the ball all the way from their own two-yard line to the Michigan 34 and faced fourth and two with under a minute left. Ryan Day once again, with a timeout in his pocket, opted for the safe path. He ran the clock down to three seconds, took the time out, and sent out the field goal unit to attempt a 52-yard field goal. The Wolverine crowd would erupt as the kick sailed wide left and was no good.
NO GOOD
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
Ohio State misses the field goal and stays down 4 at the half pic.twitter.com/PJxkriQ1oC
The thing about these types of sliding doors, or “what if” decisions, is we don’t know for sure if everything afterward would’ve played out the same way. However, we can speculate. If we couldn’t I probably wouldn’t have a job.
What if Ryan Day goes for it?
Sure there’s the best-case scenario where they manage to actually get into the endzone, but there is also the more likely outcome of the field goal attempt being more manageable for a college kicker.
Does this game end differently if Ohio State needs a field goal to force overtime in lieu of needing a touchdown with only a minute on the clock?
We will never know. What we do know is that Ryan Day has now fallen to 1-3 against Michigan and is on a three-year losing streak in this rivalry game. A game that, next to national championships, carries the most weight in how your success as the Ohio State head coach is viewed. With that in mind, as his team sits outside of the playoff window looking in, you’d have to imagine that it’s a decision that will be on his mind.
“The Iron Bowl” #8 Alabama vs Auburn
Roll Tide vs War Eagle. While not as much was at stake for both teams as Michigan vs Ohio State, Bama vs Auburn is also one of the biggest and most historic rivalries in college football. As if college rivalries aren’t already crazy enough, these two schools are a quick two-and-a-half-hour drive apart, and there are no pro sports teams in the state of Alabama. Auburn and Alabama sports are the lifeblood of fans in that state, and this rivalry can get heated. I’m not exaggerating, fans take it so seriously that an Alabama fan once poisoned the 80-year-old Oak Trees that sat on Toomer’s Corner at the Auburn Campus. The best part, the man outed himself when he called into the Paul Finebaum radio show telling him what he did and signing off the call by saying, “Roll damn tide.” Is that a crime? Yes.
Is it also kind of hilarious? Absolutely.
As one would expect, this is one of those rivalries where no matter the circumstance entering the game, things can get weird and the endings can be wild. Just reference the 2013 Kick Six. That was once again the case this year when the #8 ranked 10-1 Crimson Tide visited the 6-5 Tigers. With their make-or-break conference championship showdown against Georgia on the horizon, the importance of that game was almost made moot as Auburn took Bama to the edge.
This game reads like a game of Madden where your team has a way better box score, but somehow your buddy is still winning. Auburn turned the ball over three times while Alabama committed zero. The Tide had the ball more and put up almost 120 more yards of offense. They had roughly 200 yards on the ground and another 259 passing while Auburn chucked it up for a whopping 93 yards through the air. Bama even won the time of possession battle, but Auburn’s 42 run attempts and 244 yards on the ground refused to go down easily.
As the game neared its end, Auburn held a 24-20 lead and had Nick Saban’s teams back against the wall with less than a minute left in the fourth. A 1st and goal from the seven-yard line imploded into a 4th and goal from the 31-yard line for the Alabama offense. On the previous play from the 26 QB Jalen Milro began to scramble and even had a lane he could’ve taken to pick up yardage for a more manageable 4th down chance. He hesitated before eventually throwing the ball away after he crossed the line of scrimmage. That’s five yards and a loss of down for an illegal forward pass. A replay of the sideline showed a shouting Nick Saban, swinging his arm forward, seemingly telling his QB that he should’ve tucked the ball and ran.
It was all over. The ten-game win streak after the Texas loss, clinching their ticket to the SEC championship, and just how much this team had improved to become what many view as a legit match for Georgia. All that was going to be ruined by a barely bowl-eligible team, and even worse, their bitter rival… until it wasn’t.
TOUCHDOWN ALABAMA ON 4TH AND A MILE!
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 26, 2023
UNREAL! pic.twitter.com/rX5XPRsuzV
43 ticks left on the clock, 4th and goal from the 31-yard line. Jalen Milroe gave us one of the greatest and most shocking moments in Iron Bowl history as he hit wide receiver Isaiah Bond in the corner of the endzone
Shortly later, on the final play of the game, Bama DB Terrion Arnold picked off Tigers QB Payton Thorne to put the cherry on top of the 27-24 victory. As a man who pleaded guilty to a Class C felony for criminal damage to an agricultural facility one said, Roll Damn Tide.
Washington State vs #4 Washington
Washington has basically been in survival mode ever since they beat Oregon. Every week they’ve had to make big plays in the fourth quarter to either come back or put the game away. It was no different this weekend when they hosted The Cougars in what’s known as “The Apple Cup.”
Fun fact, The state of Washington currently produces over half of the domestically grown apples in the United States.
The Huskies had already clinched their spot in the Pac-12 championship last week when they beat Oregon State. However, taking a loss would be a blow to their hopes of making the playoffs depending on how next week shakes out. Meanwhile, it’s been a rough season for Washington State as they suffered a six-game losing streak after a 4-0 start to the year. This game was their chance to end the season on a high note as well as get to the six wins needed to be bowl-eligible.
The game was not a high-scoring shootout, but it tracked with how these teams put up points. Neither team is strong running the ball and the teams collectively only managed to put up slightly over 160 yards on the ground. All the scoring in this one came through a QB battle between Michael Penix Jr. and Cameron Ward. Both QBs finished the game with over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. However, the Washington defense managed to make more of an impact on Ward, picking him off twice and taking him to the turf for five sacks. The heart-attack Huskies pulled out the win 24-21 after executing on the two-minute drill to set up a walk-off 42-yard field goal by kicker Brady Gross.
The big reason why I wanted to touch on this game was so I could once again talk about how good Huskies wideout Rome Odunze is. The Junior out of Las Vegas has totaled 1326 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. He’s broken 100 yards and scored twice in three straight games. Something he also did back when Washington had the biggest win of their season against Oregon.
Week after week he has made clutch plays and been a highlight machine. Starting with his first touchdown of the day when he got wide-open for a 40-yard score to give Washington the lead 14-7.
WIDE OPEN
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
Can't give Michael Penix Jr. a pass this easy to Rome Odunze 🍎🎯 @UW_Football pic.twitter.com/qo15RaSYjh
Next up, in the final seconds of the third quarter, he caught a 20-yard dime from Penix with a defensive back draped all over him. One again giving his team a touchdown lead 21-14.
ROME ODUNZE IS UNSTOPPABLE@UW_Football is back on top 🍎🔥 pic.twitter.com/mhf1UCH5D6
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
Finally came his biggest play of the game. Tied up in the fourth with only roughly a minute left, Washington faced a 4th and 1 from their own 29. Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb went into his bag and dialed up a camera fooling play. Penix faked the hand off to the back and pitched it to Odunze on an end around. Odunze gets to the outside, taking off for a big gain, and extending the drive that would lead to Washington finishing the regular season undefeated.
WHAT A FAKE, WHAT A PLAY 🤯
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 26, 2023
The 4th down conversion is good for @UW_Washington!!! pic.twitter.com/J5jeYzgdRh
Rivalry Week: How We Did On The Books
So close. Seven straight bets before my streak came to an end because of a team that used to be good to me. It was still a good week and I’ve come a long way from the 0-4 week I posted three weeks ago. It was one hell of a ride, but now we start back from zero. As always, you can check out this spreadsheet that tracks my bets to see how I’ve done on the year and if I will ever be profitable doing this.
#21 Tulane(-3.5) vs UTSA
Final Score: Tulane 29-16
With a spot in the American Conference Championship on the line, The Tulane Green Wave defense showed up big time. They forced five turnovers including three interceptions. UTSA quarterback Frank Harris went nuclear the week prior against USF. He racked up a total of 423 yards of offense and six touchdowns. The Green Wave D held him to 226 yards and just one touchdown that came in garbage time. Tulane completely stuffed one of the top-scoring offenses in the conference. Next week, they face THE top-scoring offense in the American conference, SMU.
#10 Missouri(-8.5) at Arkansas
Final Score: Mizzou 48-14
I can’t believe I went so conservative when betting on my 2023 bandwagon team. Imagine if I found a book that would’ve let me alt-spread this to -33.5. Missed opportunity I guess. Arkansas has had a rough year, but I guess The Tigers thought it would be fun to stomp the last bit of life out of them they had left. Mizzou was up 41-0 after three and then Arkanasa got a couple of garbage-time touchdowns to help save face. At least as much as you can in that situation.
Meanwhile, go ahead and pack up the Doak Award to send to Cody Schrader. The Missouri walk-on running back put up 217 yards on just 27 attempts. The quick math tells me that’s really freaking good.
#15 Arizona(Alt spread -13.5) at Arizona State
Final Score: Arizona 59-23
Arizona needs to be in the top ten of the next CFP rankings.
There I said it.
I know Arizona State is far from the toughest level of competition, but The Wildcats did what good teams do against bad teams. They crushed them. There was no letdown from being eliminated from the Pac-12 Championship as the score ballooned all the way to 52-7. Then similar to the Mizzou/Arkansas game, Arizona St. scored a couple of tuddys late when the game was beyond out of reach. Zona put up over 600 yards of offense, most of which came from breakout QB Noah Fifita who threw for 527 yards and 5 TDs.
UNC(-2.5) at #22 NC State
Final Score: NC State 39-20
The game that ended the streak. Honestly, a bad bet and I should’ve known that. After their 6-0 start The Tar Heels went 2-4 as their season continued to fall apart. I made money on them during the first half of the season, so I kept coming back to them thinking they would get it together. They never did. Their defense had another brutal game as the NC State offense had what was probably their best game of the season, totaling over 500 yards. People who just check the basic box score from week to week and have never actually watched Drake Maye take a snap probably loved this one.
