On Saturday W/ Mike Regan: Conference Championships
I am back with part two of this week’s double-stuffed edition of On Saturday! It’s time to break the entire slate of games coming up on Conference Championship Weekend. It’s honestly the last Conference Championship lineup if it’s kind. Next year the College Football Playoffs expand to 12 teams and these games won’t have as much on the line as they do this year. But before the CFP starts letting the scrubs in, let’s take the time to enjoy this weekend. 10 games. 10 predictions. 10 bets, and one tired writer. Let’s get to it.
You can find all of my bets here including the bets I’m making this week.
Conference Championships: Group of Five
Conference USA: New Mexico State(10-3) vs #24 Liberty(12-0)
Line: Liberty -10.5
Jamey Chadwell’s first year as head coach for Liberty could not have gone any better. His team’s a perfect 12-0 and has managed to break through the tough barrier of getting into the CFP Top 25 as a Group of Five team. Liberty averages the fifth most yards a game in the entire FBS. To be fair though, that’s something we can often see from a smaller school playing in a conference with weaker overall competition. When the Flames played New Mexico St. in week two of the season the Aggies managed to jump out to a 17-13 lead partway through the second. Then Liberty scored 20 unanswered points and won the game 33-17. I’m sure that collapse has eaten at New Mexico St. all season and they are dialed in on avenging that loss. Will they? No. Liberty is a better team that hasn’t been challenged all season compared to the close wins the Aggies have had to pull out.
Winner: The Liberty Flames
Best Bet: Liberty -10.5 (Odds: -115)
Mid American(MAC): Toledo(11-1) vs Miami(OH)(10-2)
Line: Toledo -7.5
No not that Miami. Pay attention to OH next to their name. It’s the much colder and more depressing Miami. These two teams kept pace atop their divisions in the MAC for the majority of the season. Toledo has the best offense in the conference while Miami has an objectively better defense. With that in mind, their game against each other mid-season played out as one would expect. The Redhawk defense slowed down Toledo and only gave up 21 points to a team that averaged 35 a game this year. They even managed to shut them out in the second half. However, Miami’s offense couldn’t make up enough ground to come back from the 21-3 hole they dug themselves in the first half and lost the game. I hate to break the hearts of old football guys across the nation, but defenses alone don’t win championships in college football anymore. The Rockets will once again beat the Redhawks, however, I don’t expect a blowout and I like the Redhawks to cover.
Winner: The Toledo Rockets
Best Bet: Miami(OH) +7.5 (Odds: -104)
Mountain West: Boise St.(7-5) vs UNLV(9-3)
Line Boise St. -2.5
While the Broncos have the worst overall records at 7-5, they have the same conference record as UNLV of 6-2. It’s a familiar spot for Boise St. who have already won five Mountain West titles since joining the conference in 2011. It’s a much different story for the UNLV Rebels. This will be the team’s first time playing in the conference championship and they’ve been in the MWC since 1999. Not only that, this is the Rebels first winning season in a decade and the most wins they’ve had since the 1984 season.
There will be no shortage of offense in this battle of teams that both averaged more than 30 points a game this season. Neither of these teams have defenses worth writing home about, however, the Broncos could be in more trouble due to their secondary that’s given up the most yardage through the air in the Mountain West this year. It’ll be a shootout, but I’m riding with the Rebels to cap off their breakout season hoisting the trophy. There is a trophy for the MAC Championship, right?
Winner: The UNLV Rebels
Best Bet: UNLV ML (Odds:+116)
Sun Belt: Appalachian St.(8-4) vs Troy(10-2)
Line: Troy -5.5
This conference championship game is a sham. A sham I say!
While the JMU Dukes will get to play in a bowl game this year due to the lack of eligible 6-6 teams, they are still not allowed to play in this game due to lame NCAA regulations. JMU had the best record in their division at 7-1, but are ineligible because it’s only their second year in the FBS. Meaning App St. got the spot with the second-best conference record at 6-2.
On a related note, with JMU getting a bowl, that means 12 teams from the Sun Belt will be bowling this offseason. 12. That’s the most of any conference. The Sun Belt, best conference in college football?
Going back to this matchup, I think the Troy Trojans defense will be a deciding factor. While App St. may have the edge offensively, Troy’s conference-leading defense should be able to bring the scoring in this game down to where they’re more comfortable. It’s not a situation where Troy has a bad offense either, the Mountaineers have just been slightly more productive this season. This means the offensive gap isn’t one where any defensive impact by Troy’s D would be outweighed by an inability to move the ball. With all that said, I’m going with the Trojans team that won more games than that other Trojans team out west.
Winner: The Troy Trojans
Best Bet: Alt Spread Troy -6.5 (Odds: +106)
American: SMU(10-2) vs #22 Tulane(11-1)
Line: Tulane -3.5
I was really excited about this matchup and planned on writing a lot more about it. Then I remembered Mustangs QB Preston Stone broke his leg last week against Navy. That is just too much of a loss. On the year Stone had put up over 3800 yards and 28 td’s with a 91 passing grade per PFF. This Tulane defense is too good to beat with a backup QB. Even with SMU’s strong ground game, I just don’t see an outcome where they will be able to keep pace. I’m surprised the line hasn’t shifted more given the situation. I understand that the numbers for SMU are impressive across the board, but there’s a reason why QBs often win MVPs and Heismans. Because they have the biggest impact on the game, and it’s sometimes surprising just how much a team’s all-around performance can change when the starting QB is removed from the equation.
Winner: The Tulane Green Wave
Best Bet: Alt Spread Tulane -6.5 (Odds: +122)
Conference Championships: Power Five Conferences
Pac-12: #5 Oregon(11-1) vs #3 Washington(12-0)
Line: Oregon -9.5
The big rematch for the Pac-12 crown. It’s been two different stories since Washington got the slim 36-33 shootout victory over the Ducks in week seven. Oregon has dominated every team in their way, while The Huskies have had to fight tooth and nail each week to finish the regular season undefeated. Their defense has struggled, and the offense has slowed down as people have begun to question the physical health of Michael Penix Jr.
In his last three games, Penix has posted a sub-70 PFF grade and completion percentages of 57% or lower. Even the books soured on Washington as they were underdogs going into their week 12 game against Oregon St. The Huskies got the win by a narrow 2-point margin with a final score of 22-20, however, it was a game played in terribly rainy conditions. Even with the weather, it still stood out to everyone when Oregon blew the Beavers out 31-7 the following week. All these things have led us here. Where an undefeated team is playing a team they already beat this season and are two score underdogs.
When I compare these teams, Oregon has the edge in most categories. They have a more balanced offense, a notably better defense, and, as of late, Bo Nix has been playing better than Penix. The one thing Washington has that I like more than Oregon is their wideout duo of Romeo Odunze and Jalynn Polk. When these teams played earlier the pair combined for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns.
MICHAEL. PENIX. JR.
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 14, 2023
What a throw for a second @UW_Football TD 🎯🎯🎯 pic.twitter.com/DdlSawETao
It will take a similar performance for them to beat Oregon again. I expect the Oregon defense will play better this time around, however, I also expect the Huskies’ defense to have a repeat performance. Therein lies my biggest concern for Washington. Can they keep pace with The Ducks in another shootout?
Something overshadowed by the QB battle in their first matchup was Oregon doubling up Washington on the ground. That ties in with the biggest reason why The Ducks are the better team. They are bigger and better in the trenches. The Huskie offense is pass-heavy, and if Penix Jr. is banged up, they won’t have a safety valve for pumping up the running attempts and winning on the ground. The Huskies deserve a lot of credit for staying perfect in what was arguably the toughest conference in college football this year, but this may be where the tank finally runs out. They can’t struggle for stretches against a team like Oregon and still be in the game late. In their last matchup, these teams put up a total of 69 (nice) pts. Going into this one, the O/U is set at 65.5. I think Bo Nix locks up the Heisman, and Oregon puts up their share of the points. Sadly I don’t think Washington has it in them to do their part.
Winner: The Oregon Ducks
Best Bet: Under 65.5 Total Points (Odds: -110)
Big 12: #18 Oklahoma St.(9-3) vs #7 Texas(11-1)
Texas is back!
Unless they lose here, that would be embarrassing. No offense to Oklahoma State. Their season could’ve gone in a much different direction. They started 2-2 including a loss to Southern Alabama. At that point, it was questionable if they would even reach five hundred. Instead, they went 7-1 the rest of the way and are now playing for the Big 12 title.
The Cowboy’s RB Ollie Gordon has had an amazing season. He’s put up over 1500 yards on the ground along with 20 touchdowns. As a matter of fact, Ok St. wouldn’t even be playing in this game had it not been for Gordon getting into the endzone five times to save his team from getting upset by BYU. Their offense goes as Ollie Gordon goes. Unfortunately, when it comes to running the ball against the Texas defense, teams have not gone very far.
On average, the Longhorns have only given up 85 yards a game on the ground. In general, saying the defensive scale in this matchup is tipped in Texas’s favor would be an understatement. The Texas D hopped onto the scale and flung OK St. off the other side like a husky kid on a seesaw. Texas can’t mess around either. If they want to get into the playoffs they will probably need more than just a win. They’ll need to dominate to gain style points and impress the committee.
With that in mind, the Cowboys lose their best chance at winning this game. That chance was Texas not being focused and taking their foot off the pedal as they looked forward to what’s next. Ask Texas Tech what it’s like when you play a locked-in Longhorn squad. Oh wait, you can’t. They’re still busy picking themselves up after getting stomped into the dirt 57-7. I think The Longhorns come out big and this game is over by half.
Winner: Hook Em
Best Bet: Texas 1st Half Spread -9.5 (Odds: -102)
Big 10: #16 Iowa(10-2) vs #2 Michigan(12-0)
Line: Michigan -21.5
Every week I worry I am belaboring the point of how bad Iowa is offensively, however, it’s not my fault. They kept ending up ranked, having ridiculously low game lines, and now are playing in the Big Ten conference championship. Iowa games have hit the under in 10 of their 12 games this season, and they are currently on a seven-game under heater. The Hawkeyes haven’t scored more than 15 in a game since October 7th. To be fair, Iowa does have a good defense. For example, the over-under for this game is currently at 34.5 even though Michigan scores 37.5 a game this year. Those lines fit perfectly with the most likely outcome of UM winning 34-0.
I’m not being dramatic either. Iowa’s first-half team total is 0.5 points and their team total for the game is 6.5. Vegas and the public both think it’s a coin flip whether or not they will score points at all in this game, let alone get into the endzone. The only thing Iowa can do is run the football and they barely do that at a good rate averaging 4.2 a carry. Ohio State has arguably the best run game in the Big Ten and averaged 5 yards per carry. Still, the Buckeyes barely broke a hundred yards rushing against UM, and that was with the Wolverines having to plan for the ball, possibly getting passed to the best wide receiver in the country. The only receiver The Wolverines will have to worry about covering against Iowa is the dirt.
I’m just being unnecessarily mean at this point. I’ll just make one more point of comparison to explain the gap between these two teams. UM is the best team the Hawkeyes have faced since they faced Penn St. early in the year. How did that game turn out? The Hawkeyes got shut out by JV Michigan 31-0.
Winner: The Michigan Wolverines
All these weeks of having to write about Iowa and the Big Ten West has driven me to madness. It’s forcing me to throw down a sicko same-game parlay. I’m on that crazy train people, come ride the train with me.
Best Bet: SGP Game Under 34.5 + Michigan Total Over 28.5 (Total Odds: +1018)
ACC: #14 Louisville(10-2) vs #4 Florida St.(12-0)
Line: Florida St. -1.5
Florida St. was able to get the win against the Gators last week to remain undefeated, however many are calling for the upset here. No Jordan Travis and they are playing a tough Louisville team. Speaking of the Cardinals, this should be a battle against two undefeated teams, but Louisville shot themselves in the foot not once, but twice, or maybe once in each foot. Earlier in the year they played a sloppy game against a Pittsburgh team they were better than and lost 38-21 after turning over the ball three times. It was a repeat performance last week against Kentucky. The Cardinals outplayed UK in literally every aspect of that game, but once again turned the ball over three times and lost 38-31.
I don’t mention all that just to twist the knife into Louisville fans who realize they could’ve been playing for a potential playoff spot this weekend. That’s just a bonus. I mention it as evidence of why I don’t trust Louisville.
Many are predicting Seminoles QB Tate Rodemkaer will be a non-factor like last week and Louisville’s defense shuts them down on the ground to get the win. Well in that scenario I hope The Cardinals plan on running the ball a lot because people have seemed to forget that FSU has allowed just 175 yards through the air per game. While Cardinals QB Jack Plummer has given out one free interception to defenses the last three weeks straight.
Another reminder for anyone hoping on the upset train. This Seminoles D has racked up over 40 sacks this year and features future top ten, possibly top five, NFL draft pick Jared Verse. Verse alone has eight sacks, 13 QB hits, and 28 hurries with a 20% win rate.
Jared Verse speed-to-power pic.twitter.com/XF9rAv46ny
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) November 26, 2023
You see that right there? That’s NFL-caliber grown-ass man shit, and that’s the difference in the game. The Cardinals have been playing a kid’s game and are about to take a seat at the big boy table. Louisville ML has gone all the way down to +100 and it’s a well-placed trap by Vegas. Don’t get me wrong The Seminoles won’t rack up the points, but their defense is going to step up, do their job, and keep the score low. Unfortunately, they’ll get whooped in the first round of the playoffs. However, you still have to give FSU props for finishing what Jordan Travis helped start by going undefeated, winning the ACC, and getting to the playoffs.
Winner: The Florida State Seminole
Best Bet: Alt Spread FSU -2.5 (Odds: +100)
SEC: #8 Alabama(11-1) vs #1 Georgia(12-0)
Line: Georgia -5.5
My hype levels have reached the maximum for this one. A big-time SEC matchup in the conference championship with a playoff berth on the line. Nick Saban is an underdog. Let’s do this. If you’re privy to this weekend’s schedule then you probably noticed I’ve been going in the order that the games will take place. Except this one. I didn’t care what time slot it was in, I was saving the best for last.
It’s big-time SEC football, so the first thing that could cross people’s minds is defense. While both these teams have great defenses, they are both more vulnerable than we’ve seen in the past. Particularly on the ground. To give a recent example, both these teams gave up over 200 yards rushing to Auburn this season. Each team has a few games on their record where run-heavy teams have managed to move the ball. Both of their defensive strengths lie in their secondary groups. Each team is home to multiple future NFL defensive backs and both squads are allowing less than 200 yards through the air per game this season. There’s a total of seven DBs between these two teams with PFF grades over 80. Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry, Terrion Arnold, and Caleb Downs all have graded over 85 on the year. Avoiding Kool-Aid by targeting Arnold hasn’t worked. Arnold leads the team with 5 picks and 11 pass breakups this season.
"I'll take that"
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 11, 2023
-@ArnoldTerrion
📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/P7mbBxVlPb
Meanwhile, are you a fan of Safeties? Then watch Georgia football. The trio of Tykee Smith, Malaki Starks, and Javon Bullard have been flying all over the field this season. Whether it’s been getting downfield to help against the run or dropping back to cause havoc in coverage where they have combined for eight picks.
“I’ll take that” - @cravejaaye #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/RDdH29LiAX
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 12, 2023
When two teams excel in the same area games can often come down to which team can counter that strength the best. So it shifts the focus to which QB will be able to make the most plays to win the game for their team. I think Carson Beck has exceeded expectations this season for the Bulldogs. 3500 yards, completing over 70% of his passes with 22 touchdowns to only six interceptions. Georgia doesn’t have a breakout wideout threat like other top teams, but they do have tight end Brock Bowers who leads the team in receiving yards, receptions, and TDs despite only playing in nine games. He’ll be the biggest pass-catching threat for Georgia with Bama having to avoid letting him get open in the middle of the field, then again even if he’s not open Bowers is the guy who can make contested catches. In the event the Tide go heavy on shutting down Bowers, they need to watch out for 6-foot-185-lbs Ladd McConkey. He’s broken out in his last three games totaling 17 catches for 311 yards and a couple touchdowns. He’s currently listed as questionable but if he plays, he’s that sneaky kind of slot receiver that can get to the open spot and make defenses pay.
Ladd McConkey's 100th reception with @GeorgiaFootball gives the Bulldogs the lead. pic.twitter.com/FcaQdDO8o4
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) October 28, 2023
Meanwhile, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has had a wild year. He was benched after the Texas loss, Saban then realized they didn’t have much else at the positions and ended up going back to him in the second half of the same game he was initially benched for. Since then it’s been steady improvement as OC Tommy Rees figured out how to scheme up an offense to Milroe’s strengths. That improvement reached a fever pitch after a massive game against LSU, scoring six touchdowns against Kentucky, and then this past weekend when . . . you know what? Let’s just roll the tape again.
TOUCHDOWN ALABAMA ON 4TH AND A MILE!
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 26, 2023
UNREAL! pic.twitter.com/rX5XPRsuzV
There’s a raw wildcard aspect to Milroes’ game. He may make mistakes, but he can also make big-time plays. This Georgia defense will be the toughest he’s faced since his rough game early in the year against Texas. Kirby Smart and Bulldogs DC Glen Schumann are going to make it their priority to not give up those wide-open deep balls like other teams have. It’s a completely fair argument to make that Georgia is the better overall team, however, I like how Alabama matches up.
Everybody is mentioning how this is the toughest D Bama has faced all year, but it’s the same situation for Georgia. If the Alabama secondary can buy the slight extra time needed for their stud edge rushers, Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell, to get home, then Beck will be in for a rough day. The duo of Turner and Braswell have combined for 99 pressures and 22 sacks this season. There will be opportunities in this game for the Bama pass rush to pressure Beck into poor decisions against tight coverage. As the saying goes, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Well in this case the saying would be, “Every QB avoids mistakes until he has multiple first-round draft picks breathing down his neck.” That might be a little wordy.
SACKED!!!😤😤 pic.twitter.com/aSxUfktJjF
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 11, 2023
Meanwhile, Jalen Milro has a safety valve called God-given athletic ability. Unlike Beck, Milroe can and will run the ball. He has 623 yards on the ground this season and 12 touchdowns. The Georgia defense has to balance between bringing pressure and Milroe possibly escaping to pick up yards or dropping back and leaving him with space in the middle of the field where designed QB runs will gut them. I can’t guarantee Milroe will have a big game through the air, but in a game where the run could already be effective, the team with the QB that adds another level to the running game has a leg up. So I will guarantee Jalen Milroe breaks a hundred on the ground. This should be no surprise to my faithful readers, I’ve been banging this drum for weeks now. Alabama will beat Georgia and head to the CFP. Making Nick Saban an underdog is like when a player would trash talk Michael Jordan and he would proceed to drop 40 while making sure that player was guarding him every time he scored.
Winner: Roll Tide
Best Bet: Alabama ML (Odds: +172)
I wish everybody the best on their conference championship betting. If you don’t partake in gambling, you can still kick back and enjoy a great weekend of college football. I’ll be back next week to gloat after I go a perfect 10-0 in my bets.
