On Saturday w/ Mike Regan – College Football National Championship Preview
Let’s go boys!! That’s boys in the figurative sense not the literal one. I respect and value my vast #armyoffemalereaders. With that said…LET’S GO BOYS! It’s time for the the CFP National Title game. It’s time for someone to win that nasty natty. The Michigan Stalions Wolverines vs The Washington Huskies. The only two teams to make it out of the regular season undefeated and they remain that way now. No more intro necessary, let’s get after it.
National Championship
#2 WASHINGTON VS #1 MICHIGAN
At this point, I’ve written about both these teams ad nauseam in this article throughout the season, so I won’t beat around the bush. If you’ve listened to or read any other previews of the game then you know what it is.
Can Michigan stop the unstoppable Huskie offense, and can Washington score on the impenetrable Wolverine defense?
Michigan’s defense has only allowed 20 points or more in three games this year. They’re what I like to call a “no scroll” defense. As in, no matter what defensive category or statistic you pull, you won’t have to scroll to find them on the list. They rank 1st in overall defense per PFF, 5th in the run, 1st in coverage, and 4th in pressure.
The first big wall standing in front of the Huskie offense will be the Big Blues defensive front and the pressure they can generate.
Against Alabama in the semi-finals, the Wolverines were sending it. Bama QB Jason Milroe dropped back to pass 35 times and Michigan sent a blitz on 20 of them. They found success in the strategy and racked up five sacks in the first half. It forced Crimson Tide OC Tommy Rees to adjust his play calling to get the ball out quickly and abandon any sort of deep passing game. Milroe excelled going deep throughout the season. 23.7% of his passes in 2023 were attempts 20+ yards. Against Michigan last week, he only went deep three times. It went even further than that as he only had three attempts of 10-19 yards in the game after 23% of his passes this season were that deep as well.
Huskie QB Michael Penix Jr. has one of the best deep balls in college football. All highlights of them should be in slow-mo as Ave Maria plays in the background. It’s a work of art, but will he have the time to pull it off in this game? Washington was able to do it in their semifinal game against Texas, where the Longhorns’ pass rushers were expected to give Penix problems. The Longhorns had two potential first-round picks on their defensive line in Byron Murphy, and Ta’Vondre Sweat however, Texas didn’t manage to take Penix to the turf once in the game.
A big reason why was the sixth-year signal caller’s ability to maneuver in the pocket to avoid pressure. It’s one of the most notable things about Penix outside of his arm talent. He has the ability to remain poised and mobile in the pocket while still getting his eyes back downfield to find his receivers. His ability to remain calm under pressure was on full display in that game against Texas. Including here where he stands in the pocket with a defender closing in on him. He stands in there just long enough to deliver the strike downfield before the defensive lineman for the Longhorns could get home.
lovely flick from Michael Penix to beat the rush pic.twitter.com/T7z2PEJ2vP
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 2, 2024
If the Wolverines D is going to get pressure it will most likely come from the interior by attacking Washington’s guards. The outside tackle duo of Troy Fatanu and Roger Rosengarten have only allowed two sacks and four QB hits through all 14 games this year.
While Penix and the Huskie were able to nullify Texas’ talented pass rush, they had the benefit of being able to attack the young Longhorns secondary. Michigan’s DBs will be a whole different level of a challenge. They’ve only allowed a measly 152.6 yards a game through the air. Among the talented group is stud senior corner Mike Sainristil. This man’s stat line is more stuffed than the stands at a Chargers game. (That might not be as impressive a metaphor as I was going for). This season Sainristil has recorded 5 picks, 6 pass break ups and 6 forced incompletions. On the other side of the field is sophomore CB Will Johnson, and stud might be an understatement for the way Johnson’s played this year. Check that man for spikey blonder hair cause he’s a super stud.
Johnson has allowed zero, count’em ZERO, touchdowns this year, a 46.9% completion percentage, and a 35.4 QB rating. I would like to once again state for the record. Will Johnson is a sophomore.
Will Johnson is elite🔒
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 7, 2023
pic.twitter.com/NOyxIhnj5C
While Michigan’s secondary will be unlike anything Washington has faced, you could argue The Huskie receivers are unlike anything Michigan has faced. COLLECTIVELY! Had to clarify that before Ohio State fans showed up at my doorstep.
To be fair though, while Marvin Harrison Jr. would be first on most people’s college wide receiver rankings, Rome Odunze would be second. Odunze has racked up over 1500 yards in 14 games this year. I’ll let you do the math. All year he’s burned backs to get wide open or won battles. Penix Jr. isn’t afraid to throw to him when he’s covered. 27 times this year, Penix has thrown a contested target to Odunze. Putting the ball in spots where only he could get it. In 20 of those situations, the future first-round pick got it.
Highlights of throws to wide-open receivers are cool, but you know what really gets me going? Highlights that show elite ball tracking and adjusting.
Rome Odunze 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/0xIklX44vz
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 5, 2024
With only three drops and 13 touchdowns on the year, Odunze is going to be problem number one for Michigan’s defensive backs. Problem number two will be Ja’ylnn Polk. Unlike Odunze, who’s taken 81.4% of his snaps out wide, Polk has lined up roughly equally outside and in the slot. He’s racked up over 1100 yards and nine tuddy’s this season. Polk made defenses pay when they focused too much on Odunze and has been a lethal deep threat for Washington this year. Add in Junior wideout Jalen McMillan who’s averaging 13.3 a catch and you begin to see the depth of the receiving core the Wolverines will have to cover.
It’s clear what Michigan’s strategy will be for this game. It’ll be the same as it was again Penn State, Ohio State, and Alabama. Give the other team their worst offensive performance of the year, and salt the game away with long, hard-nosed drives on offense. In order to perform the latter they will turn to the man they’ve ridden all year. Senior running back Blake Corum.
Corum ran the ball 237 yards en route to 1111 yards on the ground. He accounted for the majority of Michigan’s scoring this year with 25 total touchdowns, the most important being his OT tuddy in their victory last week. 5 ‘8 ” 213 lbs, Corum may be considered “undersized” but doesn’t run like it as he’s racked up 580 yards after contact this year. The ironic part is he’s actually having a down year. He had 300 more yards and averaged 1.2 more yards a carry last year. It hasn’t mattered though, as he’s come through in the clutch time and time again for Big Blue.
The Washington run defense has been prone to giving up big days to their opponents on the ground this season. Including last week when they gave up 180 yards on the ground against Texas. Corum could be set up to have one of his best games of the year when it matters most, but will it be enough? If The Huskies find a way to put up points like they have throughout the season the pressure will be on the Michigan offense to respond in a way we haven’t seen them against top-tier competition.
National Championship - Best Bets
Player Props
Michael Penix Jr. 2+ passing touchdowns (-160)
The odds aren’t juicy but it’s a lock. Something I didn’t mention earlier is that, while Huskies RB Dillon Johnson will play, it may just be a smoke-and-mirrors start. Johnson suffered what appeared to be a potential high ankle sprain against Texas in the semis. Even if he’s suited up I don’t expect him to have a large impact. This means it will come down to Penix to deliver if they want to win. If you wanna get spicy you can take 3+ touchdowns at +220
Blake Corum 110+ rushing yards (+104)
I had to go pretty high to get plus odds. However, we’ve seen The Huskies get gashed on the ground at times and there’s not as much of a risk of a split-back situation killing this bet. Michigan’s number two running back Donovan Edwards has struggled to make an impact this year, averaging 3.5 yards per attempt, leading to touches being heavily slanted in Corum’s favor. You could also do a super rich guy bet by putting an obscene amount of money on Black Corum any time tuddy at – 400. It appears no one else who plays for Michigan is allowed to score them.
Ja’Lynn Polk 60+ receiving yards (+116)
Teams have struggled all year to balance their coverage between Polk and Odunze. As a result, Polk has eclipsed this number in eight of his 12 games this year. Including going over 100 last week against Texas and in the team’s big week 7 win over Oregon
JJ McCarthy 200+ passing yards (-112)
Even if Washington gets slowed down on offense I don’t expect them to get shut down. McCarthy is going to have to contribute through the air to keep pace at times in the game. It may not be pretty, and it could be a low ADOT, YAC filled performance, but they don’t ask how. They ask what’s the vig?
Final Bet and Picks
On paper, everything points to Michigan winning this game. Washington has been in close game after close game, seemingly incapable of holding onto a lead late. Just inching out victories to stay alive. On the other hand, Michigan has been dominant. With the exception of a portion of the second half against Bama, they’ve never felt not in control of a game this year. Michigan’s defense is the best in the country, in a different realm from anything Penix Jr. and company haven’t seen all year.
Fun fact, Washington would be the lowest team per 247’s composite rankings to ever win a National Title.
With all that said, I just don’t care. The Huskies have the superior QB and the superior weapons. If they get out to a multiple-score lead, especially late in the game, I don’t think Michigan can keep pace. Unlike last week where they had four minutes left, allowing them to run their usual offense, do you trust McCarthy and the Wolverines offense down a score with under two minutes on the clock? I don’t. On the flip side, if Penix and the Huskie offense down one score late. I trust.
This game will be close, and Jim Harbaugh vs Kalen Deboar will be an excellent head-coaching duel, but I’m done doubting Washington. I doubted them against Oregon State, I doubted them against Texas, and I doubted them against Oregon…TWICE! I’m already preparing my, “Is Michael Penix Jr. actually the best QB in this draft?” take. To doubt The Huskies here would be to doubt next year’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I’m not going to be on the wrong side of history like I was with Vince Young in 2006.
Lastly, in hoping to keep sportbooks from finding out and changing the odds, I did keep one important fact out of my preview of the game. Something that holds the secret to why The Huskies will win this game. However, for everyone reading this article, I’ll let the cat out of the bag…
…According to our good friends at PFF, Washington has the 12th-ranked special teams while Michigan is all the way down at 34th! Enough said. The Huskies will be champs.
Washington Moneyline +165
Check out all of Mike’s bets this season here.
That wraps up my look at tonight’s title bout. A shorter edition of this column than usual, but I wrote the entire thing on my phone during a train ride, so give me a break. Don’t cry though, the regular season may be over, but On Saturday is not. There will be plenty to cover during the off-season between transfer portal moves, the new Big Ten, the new SEC, the dying ACC, and writing the obituary for the now-dead Pac-12. Plus, my opinions on the NFL Draft, aka “Mike overrates all the players he likes”. So enjoy Michigan vs Washington and I will be back next week.
