On Saturday: Notre Dame Falters, Texas Soars
The college football season is off and running. Two weeks in and we’ve got a little bit of everything we’ve come to know and love about college football. There’s been statement wins, there’s been upsets, and there’s already talk about more conference realignment. Before we get to that though, we have to look back on the big things that happened in the first two weeks. The landscape has changed big time since Week 0. Then I’ll lay down some spicy bets on the games to watch during Week 3 On Saturday…see what I did there?
WEEK 1 AND 2 TL;DR
Notre Dame Snip Snap
Talk about a swing of emotions. Notre Dame got the big win on the road week one against Texas A&M. Everything was in their hands. They were going to be favorites in every game the rest of the season. All they had to do was take care of business and they would find themselves in the playoffs. Fast forward one week and they were on the wrong end of the biggest upset we’ll see all season. A thirty point favorite heading into the game, then the 5th ranked Fighting Irish, lost to Northern Illinois 16-14 at home.
First things first, congratulations to the Huskies they played one hell of a game. They came out and played with zero intimidation over betting lines, conferences, or rankings. Thomas Hammock’s football team earned the win and it was cool to see the emotion from the head coach after their historic win.
On the flip side, this was an ugly loss for Notre Dame. Defensively, 16 points doesn’t look bad, but under the hood its not great. Northern Illinois won the time of possession battle 34:38 to 25:22 by sustaining drives and chewing clock. After Riley Leonard’s second interception, the Huskies got the ball back with 5:55 left, down 14-13. They proceeded to chew up five minutes and 24 seconds of clock before kicking what would be the game winning field goal. Offensively the Irish were a mess and totaled only 286 yards for the game. The best they could do with the 31 seconds they had left was get the ball far enough to set up a 62 yard field goal attempt. That’s very tough to make for NFL kickers let alone college. Not that it mattered, as ND was over powered up front and the kick was blocked. Leonard finished with a 49.4 passer rating after having 4.1 yards per attempt, and throwing two brutal interceptions. The passing game was shoot yourself in the foot levels of poor. Notre Dame’s strength is running the ball, but they couldn’t even do to the level they should’ve. 146 yards doesn’t sound bad, but factor in the level of competition and its extremely underwhelming. That’s not me talking down Northern Illinois either, that’s just the reality of the world we live in.
This game is a massive red mark on the resume of Mike Freeman as the head coach of Notre Dame. As much as we harp on coaches’ resumes in big games, what’s just as crucial are the games they should win. Is your team coached properly to be disciplined and consistent? Do you have a system in place that ensures they come out and perform as expected against lesser competition? Are you keeping your team focused?
I’m not calling for Mike Freeman’s head, or saying he’s getting fired. I’m just pointing out that these are the kinds of losses that, when you do get fired, are on the list of the reasons why.
Georgia on Top
Through two weeks Georgia looks as advertised and rightfully ranked as the top team in the nation. They opened their season in a showdown with Clemson and steamrolled the Tigers 31-3. After a close low scoring first half The Bulldogs offense came to life and never looked back. Meanwhile, the Clemson offense continued to get bullied by Georgia’s defense and managed to total a measly 188 yards of offense. That same Clemson offense came out this past week and scored 66 against Appalachian State. It was the kind of game that showed the gap between elite-tier teams like Georgia and good teams like Clemson. Meanwhile, Bulldog QB and Heisman hopeful Carson Beck has come out of the gate swinging. Through two games the senior quarterback has completed 70 percent of his passes for 520 yards and 7 TDs.
Texas Is Back Again
I was fading Texas going into the year and I was completely wrong.
They opened their season with a 52-0 win over Colorado State, but they made their big statement this past week. The long horns walked into the Big House in Ann Arbor and rolled Michigan 31-12 on their own turf. It was the Wolverines first loss at home in 24 games and it never felt close. Through two games it looks like Texas’ experienced O-line is the best in the country and they’ve appeared to have hit on their transfer portal additions at wide receiver. Most importantly, QB Quinn Ewers is playing like someone who wants to be the top QB drafted next May and someone who will be on the stage for the Heisman come December. He never appeared rattled by the strong defensive front of Michigan and was making experienced high-level throws. It’s well known that Wolverines DC Wink Martindale likes to send the extra man. No matter how he tried to disguise it this past weekend it failed. Ewers was 10 of 16 for 136 yards and a touchdown when blitzed.
whole pocket collapsing and Quinn Ewers’ eyes never drop. his movement in the pocket to extend plays this weekend was awesome. pic.twitter.com/6Zq2wkZQl8
— Mike Golic Jr (@mikegolicjr) September 9, 2024
Dysfunctional Ducks
Oregon…you good?
The Ducks started their season #3 in preseason polls. After surviving against Idaho 24-14 in week 1, voters dropped them to 7th. Now they’ve dropped to 9th after this past weekend where they once again found themselves on upset alert. It was a back-and-forth shootout against Boise State where Oregon’s defense let up 196 yards rushing to the Broncos star RB Alston Jeanty. In the end, The Ducks hit a walk-off 25-yard field goal to secure the win. Their offense is supposed to be better than they’ve looked through two games. Even though they scored 37 against Boise, 17 came from the special teams. Only three games remain before Ohio State comes to Eugene for a massive showdown that will affect who’ll be playing for the Big Ten championship. Dan Lanning and his team better figure things out quickly.
USC vs LSU in Vegas
Life post-Caleb Williams started nicely for Trojan fans as new QB1, Miller Moss, was dishing it all over the field. Moss showed poise on a big stage and made some very nice throws in big moments. He finished the game with 378 yards and one touchdown. What’s more impressive though is how he spread the wealth. USC had five different receivers with 3+ catches and 50+ yards. Equally as impressive was The Trojans defense. Far from being a world-beating defense still, but showed vast improvement. They managed to keep everything in front of them and not get scorched for multiple explosive plays across the entire 60 minutes of game time. They bent but didn’t break. Three of LSU’s trips into the red zone stalled out. Two for field goals and one for a turnover on downs. Those possessions loomed large in a game that ended 27-20 in favor of USC.
It was a frustrating loss for LSU. They had a much improved defensive performance than they got on a weekly basis last season. New starting QB Garrett Nussmeir also played well and looked more than capable of leading a successful offense. The Junior finished with 308 yards and two touchdowns on a highly accurate 30 of 39 passing. However, for Brian Kelly and LSU this is the third straight season that his team opened the year with a loss. You don’t get paid 11 million a year to lose important games and find silver linings.
Player Spotlight
Jeremiah smith
Not much to report on Ohio State so far as they haven’t faced any serious competition. One thing to note, however, is the play of Jeremiah Smith. We were told this kid was a monster and through two weeks he has been just that. The true freshman is currently leading his team across the board with 11 receptions for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns. Speed, strength, skill. Smith has it and he’s put the college football world on notice. Wanna see him outrun half the Western Michigan defense?
Jeremiah Smith, you are ridiculous‼️
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 8, 2024
Watch the speed from the true freshman on this @OhioStateFB TD 👇#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/Pupn61dWoW
Kyle McCord
From a current Buckeye to a former one. I gave props this past winter to the now Syracuse QB for feeling he knew his worth. After he spent a year hearing talk that he was the weak link for the Buckeyes offense, and receiving no signs of commitment to him as their starter in 2024, he opted to hit the portal. Through two games with the Orange, McCords completed 69.4% of his passes for a total of 735 yards and 8 tuddies. He’s playing with confidence, focus and, so far, proving some doubters wrong early on.
“They are fucking sorry as fuck”
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 7, 2024
Kyle McCord got out of Columbus and became a new man
pic.twitter.com/tHbKzAWN7I
That’s the look of a man who kept receipts and is coming to collect.
What I’m Watching (and betting) in Week 3
#20 Arizona vs #14 Kansas St.
Both these teams suffered upset scares this past week. K State had to come back from a 20-10 halftime deficit to beat Tulane 34-27, while Arizona only beat Northern Arizona 22-10. The difference between the two is the feel of those games. Zona was missing players and appeared to be on auto-pilot against a team they didn’t take seriously. Kansas St. on the other hand, had their hands full. Their offense appeared disjointed throughout the game with no threat of the QB run that we expected going into the season. Defensively they tightened up and came up with big plays in the second by forcing two turnovers, one for a touchdown. However, as a whole, it was a poor game where Tulane had their way, moving the ball. In the end, they gave up 342 yards and two touchdowns passing to Tulane True Freshman QB Darian Mensah. Now they have to face Noah Fifita and one of the best wideouts in the nation, Tet McMillan. Arizona’s defense worries me, so I’m not willing to call for the upset, but Zona will also have no problem putting up points.
BET: Arizona +7.5 (-118)
#4 Alabama vs Wisconsin
Alabama was sloppy this past Saturday against USF. The Tide committed an egregious 13 penalties for 120 yards and fumbled the ball away three times. The most ironic part is that they did this on the night the team was honoring Nick Saban. Maybe they were trying to anger him out of retirement? The game was 14-13 going into the fourth quarter. However, Bama finally got out of their own way and scored four touchdowns in the fourth to win the game 42-16.
It would take another performance like that for Wisconsin to cover the 16.5-point spread.
Alabama has talent at the skill positions and are facing an average defense by Wisconsin standards. On defense, Bama’s biggest concern is their secondary, however, up against Tylver Van Dyke and the electric Badgers offense they should do just fine. Wisconsin put up a whopping 28 on Western Michigan in week one, then followed that up with a big 27 against South Dakota. I’m predicting a complete blowout and empty stands by the time the fourth quarter starts.
BET: Alt Spread Bama -17.5 (+108)
#24 Boston College at #6 Missouri
Mizzooouuuuu!!
The level of competition hasn’t been very high (Murray St. and Buffalo), but Missouri has been dominant and outscored their opponents 89-0. Hell, even Georgia gave up a field goal to Tennessee Tech. Some question The Tigers being up to 6th in the rankings due to that level of competition. This game will serve as a statement game. A multi-score win over a Power Four team will help show why they are ranked as high as they are. Boston College’s big win this year was their week one victory on the road at Florida St. Time will continue to tell how impressive that win actually is or isn’t. Thomas Castellanos and the Eagles won’t be able to throw on this Mizzou defense making their offense one-dimensional. Meanwhile, this will be the big breakout game for the passing attack of Brady Cook and Luther Burden III, which has seemed to be moving at half speed against the early easy competition.
BET: Mizzou -16.5 (-105)
Texas A&M vs Florida
A big part of predicting this game is predicting what Florida head coach Billy Napier is going to do at QB.
Gators starting QB Graham Mertz suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of the team’s week one loss to Miami. This led to the first career start of true freshman DJ Lagway in week two. Lagway was a five-star recruit and the top QB in the 2024 class right next to Dylan Raiola. Against Samford, he showed why. Lagway’s big, athletic, and has a cannon for an arm. The Samford Bulldogs are far from a tough first test, but his performance was impressive. He finished 18/26 for 456 yards and 3 touchdowns.
DJ LAGWAY WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT pic.twitter.com/ZwSGflYJ0s
— Barstool SEC (@SECBarstool) September 8, 2024
Mertz is now healthy and Napier has yet to name a starter for this week’s game against Texas A&M. There’s an old school mindset that says you go back to the experienced Mertz instead of risking the 18 year old freshman struggling against a legit SEC pass rush. Keep in mind though, Billy Napier is coaching for his job. He was on the hot seat before the season started and has an extremely hard schedule. He needs every win he can get if he wants to survive. That is why you go with Lagway. It’s high risk, high reward. We know what Mertz is. After all, this is his sixth year in college. At his best, he’s an average QB. Last season he posted career highs when he threw for 2910 yards, 20 touchdowns and three interceptions with an ADOT of 6.7. He’s boring and safe. Safe doesn’t save Napiers job. Put the kid out there, let him cook and hope for the best.
BET: Florida ML +146
