Overrated OU, USF to the Playoffs and Week 9 Picks – On Satuday
Time really flies, and we’ve already hit week 9 of the 2025 College Football Season. This is where stuff gets real. Schools are in the thick of conference play, and every week, we are going to see teams’ postseason hopes die. Unless you’re a school like Clemson, in that case, your hopes died before September ended. Either way, I’m excited to be back with a new edition of On Saturday to continue chronicling this year of college ball. If you’re wondering where my columns covering the past few weeks have been, we had to take them down because they were so good and ingenious that the world couldn’t handle them. It’s okay, though, because I’m back now to tell you all about what’s coming up this week and, more importantly, give you all those sure-fire lock bets to make you rich. When I jotted down my initial list of games I wanted to cover, it was roughly twenty-five games long. However, it would be cruel to send editor Adam a 20k-word column to post, so I cut it down to ten. First up, just like ESPN, we’ll focus solely on the SEC to cover the big games they have going on this weekend. Then, I would like to share my thoughts on a few other notable games before discussing a couple for betting purposes. Let’s get into it.
An SEC Big Three
#3 Texas A&M(-2.5) @ #20 LSU
A&M is running right next to Alabama as the best teams in the SEC right now. They’ve had some tight games, but have managed to stay undefeated halfway through the season. Smart people knew hiring Mike Elko as head coach was a good move by the program, but this year’s success is even more impressive than some expected in his second season in College Station. What’s stood out the most has been the offensive firepower this team is working with, scoring 40 plus in four of their games and 30 plus in all but one. Just like last season, this team knows how to run the damn ball with their three-headed monster trio I lovingly referred to as a King Gidorah in my season preview, of Rueben Owens, Leveon Moss, and Marcel Reed. Each man is averaging over five a carry, and together they have totaled over 1000 yards on the year. However, the much-improved passing attack has taken things to the next level. Reed has shown significant development from last season, and the Aggies hit big time on their wide receiver transfer acquisitions of Mario Craver and K.C. Concepcion. It’s given this team an explosiveness it severely lacked in 2024.
Turning to LSU, they’ve been one of the most disappointing offenses based on preseason expectations. After making Caveats as to why they didn’t light up the scores through the first three weeks of the season, it finally became clear that they had problems on that side of the ball, and it has now cost them two games, losing to Ole Miss and, most recently, Vanderbilt. To be fair their offense did have a better game against Vandy, however, they still struggled in key aspects, drives stalling out, a lack of explosive plays, and getting decimated in the time of possession battle. One thing Tigers (the ones in Louisiana, well, one of the ones in Louisiana at least) fans can see as a reason why their team can get hot and still make the postseason is QB Garrett Nussmeir. The senior passer has been playing through an abdominal strain that he suffered in camp before the season; however, in his past couple of outings, he’s started to show signs that he’s getting back into form. Nuss Buss and the LSU passing attack ramping up is paramount in this team’s attempt to avoid a lost season, because just like last season, they can’t run the ball. Does anyone else hear foreshadowing?
The Texas A&M defense has been uneven at times this season and has given up its fair share of points against good offenses, which isn’t surprising considering the turnover they had on that side of the ball from last season. One thing the Aggies’ D does do is get after the passer. If you’re not familiar with edge rusher Cashius Howell, get familiar. He should fly up draft boards come draft day 2026. Howell currently ranks 4th in the nation in hurries, 4th in sacks, and 4th in win rate among qualifying players. The Tigers’ offense line has been shaky at times this season, but more pertinent is a lack of depth. It’s already been confirmed that the team will be without starting LT Tyree Adams, who suffered an injury early in their game against Vanderbilt last week. That loss could lead to some of the younger and less experienced options on the depth chart behind Adams being forced to contend with a strong A&M defensive front.
It is important to point out that the 3rd-ranked Aggies are playing in Tiger Stadium at night. Few game settings in college ball have the romanticized and heavily inebriated mystique of Tiger Stadium at night. The record backs it up as LSU has an 80% win percentage in the situation since 1958.
Impressive, but this game will fall into the 20%.
The Tigers’ offense being so one-dimensional is already a detriment, along with their other struggles: a banged-up QB, receivers dropping balls, and a key offensive lineman being out. It opens the door for too many plays where the Aggies manage to get the LSU offense behind the sticks and stall drives. You can’t punt the ball or settle for field goals too often and win when up against an offense that can not only move the ball in big chunks, but also on the ground to grind away at the clock. LSU is likely going to lose the possession battle, something they’ve done in every conference game this season, and see too many missed opportunities offensively. Somebody get me a fork so I can eat the 2.5 points the Aggies are giving. You know what? I’m pretty hungry, so I’ll also eat the half a point A&M is giving in the first half as well.
MY BET: Texas A&M -2.5 (-110) + Texas A&M 1st Half -0.5 (-110) – +165
#8 Ole Miss @ #13 Oklahoma(-5.5)
A loss here wouldn’t mathematically eliminate either team from the playoff race, but it feels like it could in theory. Ole Miss has an easier schedule this season and could really use this game as a resume booster. Meanwhile, the situation is the opposite for OU, as they have a brutal schedule with more tough games on the horizon. The Sooners dropped their first game a couple of weeks back to rival Texas in what was their worst offensive performance, where QB John Mateer appeared to have rushed back from injury and threw three picks. The unit looked better in their win over SC last week, where they had a rare good day running the ball, but Mateer still seemed somewhat limited. While you have to take the injury into account, it also showed how this Sooners offense is flawed at times. Mateer is uber talented, but he’s also the entire offense most weeks, which is a problem when he’s not 100%. He also suffers from an occasional case of the whoopsie daisies. You could argue that some of the picks he threw against Texas, he’s thrown against other teams; their defenders just didn’t catch it. Luckily, OU had a top-tier defense that’s first in defensive EPA per play and will keep them in most games. Not to sound cruel, but if Mateer was playing worse, this team would basically be Texas.
As for the 8th-ranked Rebels, they are still a bit of an enigma. Ole Miss has played some great ball so far this year, but the schedule hasn’t been too challenging. They did have a nice win last month over LSU, but the value of that victory seems to diminish by the week. Their other big game was a couple of weeks back against Georgia, where they played well, but eventually blew a second-half lead. The team had to deal with a lot of turnover from last year’s roster. It hasn’t affected the offense as the unit is once again just as good as you’d expect a Lane Kiffin-led offense to be and has put up the third most yards in the SEC. The defense, on the other hand, has regressed when compared to 2024. They haven’t played terribly or been lit up often, but you can see the effect of NFL draft departures such as Walter Nolan up front, where the Rebels have struggled to stop the run and pressure opposing QBs.
This matchup is relatively equal on paper. It’s a great offense vs a great defense and a middle-of-the-road offense vs a middle-of-the-road defense. It makes sense that Ole Miss being on the road playing in a tough environment would be what tips the betting scales in the Sooners’ favor; however, I’ve simply soured on this Oklahoma team. It’s not just the poor outing two weeks ago in Red River fueling that opinion either. When you go back and look at the wins up to this point, they didn’t play up to that certain level required to be taken seriously at this point in the season. Lastly, as mentioned at the beginning, this game is crucial for these teams’ playoff hopes. In picking these types of games, you have to take coaching into account, and Ole Miss has the advantage with Lane Kiffin over Sooner HC Brent Venables.
MY BET: Ole Miss ML (+165)
#15 Missouri @ #10 Vandy(-2.5)
We live in wild times. Not only is Mizzou vs Vandy a top 15 matchup. It’s a real Revenge of the Nerds situation (but without the ’80s permissible sexual harassment).
Something these teams have in common is that their lone loss this season is to Alabama. An area where they seem to differ is public perception post those losses to Bama. Vandy hung with the Tide for the majority of the game, but faded as the game went on en route to a 30-14 loss; however, the loss didn’t seem to set the team off course. They rebounded last week with their victory over LSU, where they ran for 242 yards and hung 31 points on a good LSU defense. Like last season, where Vandy surprised people, QB Diego Pavia is the engine behind it. The fifth-year QB has not only been extremely efficient throwing the ball, but he is the team’s leading rusher. Between the ground and the air, Pavia has broken the 2000-yard mark on the season, and scored 19 times. He’s played a big part in this Vanderbilt turnaround, not just with play, but with leadership as the entire team has taken on the scrappy swagger that Pavia exhibits every week.
As for Mizzou, they came up just short to Alabama 27-24 when QB Beau Pribula threw a game-sealing INT. Unlike the Commodores, though, Eli Drinkwitz’s team did not rebound in a very positive way. Instead, even more questions arose as the Tigers (the Missouri ones, well, one of the Missouri ones) barely squeaked by an underwhelming Auburn team in OT last week. It’s not just about the outcomes of those past two games; it’s the duffel bag full of offensive red flags they created. Mizzou’s offense was running over everybody through their first five games, but that’s taken a complete 180 now that they’ve faced tougher defenses. RB Ahmed Hardy started the year with 731 yards in his first five games, but has only had 110 total in the team’s past two. QB Beau Pribula was on fire when the Tigers started 5-0, but has now posted back-to-back games with 57% completion and has thrown four picks. If Mizzou wants any chance of avoiding the season falling apart, they have to get their offense back on track against a Vandy defense that is as hard as what they’ve faced the past few weeks.
I’m going to listen to my heart instead of my head and believe that Mizzou was not fraudulent and will get things going again. However, Vandy should be able to play their game and move the ball against a Tigers D that has some skewed numbers based on the level of competition throughout the season.
MY BET: Over 52.5 Total Points (-110)
Around the Nation
#18 USF(-6.5) @ Memphis
The winner of the American Conference will likely be the token G5 team to make the CFP. There are five teams you could make the case for as to why they will take that spot, two of which are the teams facing off in this game. This is a must-win for Memphis if they want to stay in the race to make the conference title game. The Tigers (The ones in Tennessee, well, one of the ones in Tennessee) suffered their first conference loss last week when they were upset by UAB in a game where they were a 23.5-point favorite. With three teams in the AAC still undefeated in conference play, including Tulane, who Memphis will play later this season, it’s fair to think that a loss here will leave Memphis on the outside looking in. HC Ryan Silverfield’s team’s secret sauce to winning games has been a combination of their strong defense and efficient run game. That tracks with the key takeaway from their loss to UAB: the Blazers managed to hold a lead late in the fourth, which forced the Tigers to move away from the run game and lean on their passing attack that ranks 89th in the nation.
The Memphis D showing up to play is a 100% necessity for them to have a chance to win this game. They’ll need to support their offense by keeping the game in reach, as Tigers starting QB Bredon Lewis is still listed as questionable. While the Memphis pass attack is nothing to write home about, the sixth-year senior has been Memphis’ steady hand under center, completing nearly 70% of his passes while being efficient when he has been called upon to throw the ball downfield. If they find themselves down in the second half again, the Tigers will have to rely on true freshman AJ Hill, who struggled when he came in to take over for the injured Lewis in their loss to FAU. Unfortunately, it’s going to be very hard for them to avoid that situation facing a player like Bulls QB Byrum Brown. A true dual threat, Brown has totaled over 2200 yards and accounted for 22 tuddies so far this season. He popped off for five total scores in the team’s big 63-36 point win over the then 5-0 North Texas, a victory impressive enough that AP voters put USF back in the Top 25. He followed up that performance with another four touchdowns in the team’s blowout victory last week over FAU. Tack on Brown’s big performance two weeks ago against Charlotte, and the Senior QB has 16 touchdowns since conference play began. That right there is the reason why the Bulls are winning this game, and potentially ending Memphis’ chances of making the ACC Championship game. They have scored 165 points in AAC games this season, and as of now, they just look like a cut above the rest.
MY BET: USF -6.5 (-105)
#4 Alabama(-11.5) @ South Carolina
Alabama is the hottest team in college football right now. Six straight wins since their season-opening loss to Florida St., and have beaten four straight ranked teams coming into this game. Meanwhile, South Carolina’s season hasn’t gone at all like their fans had hoped. Sitting at 3-4, they are out of the race for the playoffs and the SEC. QB Lanorris Sellers came into the season with an 18-wheeler truck full of hype, but hasn’t been able to make up for the lack of talent around him. However, there is still intrigue over the outcome of this game because it’s Kalen Deboer-era Alabama as a two-score favorite against an unranked team. A situation that’s led to four losses over his first two seasons as head coach in Tuscaloosa. Can South Carolina come to life and get one big win to have something to hang their hat on this season…
Naaaaah
Over the course of Bama’s past four games, they’ve looked different. They haven’t simply won the games; The Tide has controlled them. Once they’ve gained leads, they’ve choked out their opponents. Not looking to light up the scoreboard for vanity points, which you don’t need to do playing in the SEC, instead, they’ve controlled the pace of the game, extended drives, and dominated in time of possession to salt away the clock. Week after week, Bama has forced other teams to play their game. It’s also helped that QB Ty Simpson is currently playing like one of, if not the, best QB in the nation right now. The leadership is evident, the confidence is off the charts, and the throws he’s making are NFL-level. Bama has the seventh highest EPA per pass, and it’s no coincidence this is happening now that Kalen Deboar is reunited with his long-time OC Ryan Grubb. Just like the offense, their defense has come to life since the season-opening loss to the Seminoles, where they gave up 31 points. Since then, they haven’t given up more than 24, and they’ve given QBs problems. Their secondary, led by studs Zabien Brown and Bray Hubbard, has more interceptions than touchdowns given up, along with twelve PBUs. For South Carolina to have a chance in this game, they would need to find a way to attack them on the ground. The problem is, the Gamecocks can’t run the ball; their rushing success rate is an abysmal 34%.
This matchup is lopsided across the board. The media and podcasters will play up the history of Deboer’s past upsets as Bama coach, but that’s all it is: history. His team is 5-1 against the spread during their six-game win streak, and they’ll make that 6-1 this Saturday in South Carolina. Roll Damn Tide.
MY BET: Alabama -11.5 (-105)
#22 Texas @ Mississippi St.
One second, I need to grab a stick so I can slam it into the mud in front of Longhorn fans. This Texas team shouldn’t be ranked, even as low as 22nd. Yes, they beat Oklahoma in the Red River game. OU played terribly, and Mateer gave them multiple interceptions. The story coming out of that game was about what the Sooners did wrong, not what the Longhorns did right. That may sound harsh, but they followed that win up by scraping by Kentucky 16-13. The Wildcats are the worst team in the SEC this year and might not win a single conference game this season. Hell, even South Carolina scored 35 on them. There is no longer a question of, “Can this Texas offense get it going?” They are what they are, and that’s not very good. Steve Sarkisian’s offense can’t run the ball, the O-line is struggling, and Arch Manning is not playing like many thought he would. It’s harsh, but it’s the truth.
On the other side of the field, Mississippi St. isn’t a great team, but they are scrappy. They beat Arizona State, took Tennessee to OT, and barely lost to Florida last week. Sure, that’s a 4-3 record, but tell any Bulldog fan last year that’s what was coming halfway through the 2025 season, and they’d be more than happy.
Arch can’t handle when a defense disguises a coverage. How well is he going to handle that while 61 thousand people obnoxiously clang Cowbells in Davis Wade Stadium? The saving grace that may save Texas from taking its second L this season is the Longhorns’ excellent defense. They have the second-ranked EPA run defense, and with guys like S Michael Taffe and CB Malike Muhammad in the secondary, teams haven’t thrown the ball with much success either. The Longhorns’ defense is the main, if not entire, reason they’ve only dropped one game so far, and if they make the playoffs, it will be because their D allows them to eke out wins. However, this Bulldog offense isn’t a pushover, and you just can’t ignore the vibes aspect. Miss St. is a good vibe team, while Texas is an underperforming bad vibe team on the road. We here at On Saturday take team vibes very seriously.
MY BET: Mississippi St. +7.5 (-115)
I Like Those Odds
#11 BYU @ Iowa St.(-2.5)
Iowa St. is simply not as good on either side of the ball as they were last year, and they are coming off back-to-back losses. They were both one-score losses, but still losses nonetheless. The most recent of which, to a then 2-4 Colorado team that is, quite frankly, not very good. Meanwhile, BYU is 7-0 and coming off its big win in “The Holy War” against Utah that vaulted it up the rankings. A week later, they are dogs against a Cyclones team that is worse than the Ute team that the Cougars were 4.5 point dogs to, and beat. What do the sportsbooks know that I don’t? Why do they keep disrespecting head coach Kalani Sitake and freshman QB Bear Bachmeir, who has made all BYU fans say, “Jake who?” If odds makers want to keep poking the Bear, I’m going to keep making money.
MY BET: BYU ML (+120)
Wisconsin @ #6 Oregon(31.5)
One of the easiest bets last week was Oregon -17.5 at Rutgers. Coming off their loss to Indiana, it was a lock that Dan Lanning would have his team in buzzsaw mode, and then went on to win 56-10. The Ducks are going to stay in that mode the rest of the season, as they have no currently ranked teams left on their schedule. Meanwhile, there is a strong argument to be made that this Wisconsin team is the worst in the Big Ten.
Congrats Purdue.
Eating a spread as massive as 31.5 always has its risks, and why take that risk when you can bet the first quarter spread at plus odds? The Buzzsaw Ducks will have no problem coming out fast and going up two scores early.
MY BET: Oregon -7.5 1st Quarter (+120)
Akron @ Buffalo(-9.5)
Hot take, but this 2-6 Akron Zips team is pretty bad. They are averaging just 18.1 points per game and mustered up just seven earlier this season against a good Miami (OH) Red Hawks defense. Buffalo’s defense is just as good, if not better, than the Red Hawks. While the Zips’ defense is giving up 30.6 points and 430.1 yards a game, the Bulls’ offense isn’t very impressive. They are 2-4-1 against the spread this season, and they are coming off a game where they got held to 28 points and only won by seven against an 0 and 7 University of Massachusetts team. On top of that, this is MAC-tion, a conference where no team has a better record than 4-3. Let’s avoid messing with the spread and just pick on the Akron Zips, whose team is named after a shoe.
MY BET: Akron Team Total Points Under 19.5 (-115)
As always, you can find our bet tracker for On Saturday here. Be sure to come back next week to find out if Mike is destitute after betting his entire life savings (about $11.99) against Akron. As always, you can follow Mike here on Twitter to see what he thinks about Sabres wins and check out our weekly podcast on YouTube or Spotify.
