On Saturday – Week 11 | A Florida St. Upset and Best Bets
Hello everybody, and welcome to another last second edition of On Saturday. In keeping with this, I don’t have time for a long winded intro, so here it is minus some words. Week 11, season crazy, CFP rankings, people big mad and ACC bad! Aaaaah! Let’s get to gambling!
Saturday Marquee
#8 BYU @ #7 Texas Tech.(-9.5)
What a week for the Big 12. Three teams ranked in the top 13 of the first CFP rankings, and now they’re headlining this week’s slate of games. You can’t say enough about the job Cougar head coach Kalani Sitake continues to do year in and year out at BYU. His team has once again exceeded preseason expectations and is in a position where even with a loss here, they control their destiny in the playoff race. Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has also done a fantastic job taking over as the starter after the late summer departure of Jake Retlaff. With all that said, this Red Raiders defense has some serious dudes, most notably edge rusher David Bailey, who has dropped QBs 12 times for sacks and hit them another 13. There is a concern for Tech at QB. Behren Morton has dealt with injuries this season, and the team no longer has backup Will Hammond, who suffered a season-ending injury last week. That, coupled with how hard this BYU team always fights on a week-to-week basis, stops me from counting out the Cougs and expecting them to keep it close. One thing to be confident in, however, is that points won’t be easy to come by.
MY BET: Game Total Under 50.5 (-109)
#9 Oregon(-6) @ #20 Iowa
The timing of this game is rather serendipitous. The Ducks showed up in the CFP rankings three spots lower than they were in the most recent AP poll; however, this is the kind of game the committee wants to see them in to determine how good they are. On the road, against a good team, in what’s expected to be less than ideal weather. Don’t forget, we saw Indiana slow down the Ducks’ defense and give QB Dante Moore issues. The same Indiana team the Hawkeyes hung with for four quarters, losing by only five points and giving IU their worst offensive performance this season. Altogether, Iowa has yet to give up 30 points in a game and has kept teams to 20 or fewer points in the other six. The Ducks are also only a couple of weeks removed from a closer-than-expected home game against Big Ten basement dweller Wisconsin, where Moore mustered up only 86 yards passing. All the elements are there for the classic upset where one team drags the other down into the muck for a low-scoring affair, where field position and defense decide the game. Even in that scenario, however, we haven’t seen Iowa move the ball on a defense of the caliber of Oregon, and the Ducks have the advantage at playmaker to get the close win on the road. For betting purposes, though, the keyword is “close.”
MY BET: Iowa +6 (-105)
LSU @ #4 Alabama (-10.5)
The big question surrounding this one is whether or not we get that post-coach-firing bump out of LSU. It’s not a crazy thought when you factor in that the situation appeared to become toxic under Brian Kelly, and the coaching change should hopefully give everybody around the organization a breath of fresh air. However, when you factor in the expectations this team had, along with going from being ranked in the top-3 to unranked and out of the race for everything, it seems unlikely. Sure, an upset over Bama in Tuscaloosa would give them something to hang their hat on, but has the quit factor taken over the team? After all, in the wake of HC departures in college football, you have coordinators wondering if they’ll be retained come season’s end, and good players are weighing their options when it comes to the transfer portal or the NFL draft. There’s also the on-paper issue that this LSU offense has struggled all year, and there’s no evidence to expect it to come alive now. We also just saw LSU’s o-line get torn to shreds by Texas A&M, and Bama has some studs who could do the same. The Tide will continue to Roll here; however, they’ve had a track record of putting up enough points to win and then sitting on teams to chew away the clock. In making that point, let’s go first half spread instead of the full game.
MY BET: Bama 1st Half -6.5 (-110)
Around the Nation
#2 Indiana (-14.5) @ Penn St.
We saw the last gasp of life out of the 2025 Nittany Lions last week when they hung with Ohio State for one half before getting blown out in the second. Meanwhile, Indiana’s a steamroller on skates (classic colloquialism). Curt Cignetti has instilled his no-mercy philosophy into this team. No amount of points is enough, and never take the foot off the gas. Smoke ’em if you got ’em, Hoosiers cover.
MY BET: Indiana -14.5 (+102)
#3 Texas A&M(-6.5) @ #22 Mizzou
There have been media personalities making the case that this could be a tough game for the Aggies. Sure, and I’m going to go on a date with Jeannie Buss (Call me back, Jeannie). A&M’s offense is an explosive buzz saw that can physically beat defenses. Mizzou’s defense might be able to hold them in check for a quarter or two like LSU did, but the dam will eventually break. The Tigers (the tiger colored ones from the University of Missouri, not the blue ones from Lincoln University) are also starting a true freshman in Matt Zollers after Beau Pribulas’ season was cut short last week due to injury. Zollers will be going up against an Aggie front that’s peaking at the right time and shredding blockers. Just ask LSU, which got tackled for a loss 11 times last week by Cassius Howell and Co. This line is disrespectful, and I won’t stand for it. Aggies lead comfortably, and they do it start to finish.
MY BET: Texas A&M -6.5 + Texas A&M 1st Half -3.5 (+130)
Florida St. @ Clemson (-1.5)
Good thing these schools sued the ACC to get them to change the conference rev share so it factors in TV ratings. They are going to line their pockets this week on the ACC Network, which isn’t a Nielsen channel and doesn’t report ratings. Win or lose, Dabo Swinney isn’t going to get outright fired come season’s end; however, no matter what the school’s AD says, I can’t say the same about FSU head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles may be on the road, but teams no longer have a problem beating Clemson in Death Valley. Florida St. also has an advantage at the skill position. Norvell’s squad finally broke its losing streak against ACC teams last week. What if they flipped that into a winning streak this week?
MY BET: Florida St. ML (+100)
UNLV(4.5) @ Colorado St.
I don’t care that UNLV has dropped its last two games and has potentially taken itself out of the running to win the Mountain West Conference. I’ve been riding with Dan Mullen and his Running Rebels since week one (or two), and I won’t stop now. Also helps that Colorado St. is 2-6, 3-5 against the spread, and what we college football enthusiasts refer to as bad.
MY BET: UNLV -4.5 (-105)
#5 Georgia (-9.5) @ Mississippi St.
Speaking of teams snapping conference losing streaks, Miss State did that last week as well with their three-point dub over Arkansas. The vibes are good, they have momentum, and they’re on their home field where the cowbells will be clanging. Could they pull off the upse- oh that’s right they are facing Kirby Smart and Georgia. Damn, nvm. With that said, Mississippi St. can put up points, and their defense loves to give up a lot of points. Georgia wins for sure, but let’s make it a fun shootout along the way.
MY BET: Game Total Over 56.5
As with every On Saturday, you can keep an eye on Mike’s best bets with this spreadsheet. Be sure to drop in on Mike’s Twitter to see him crashing out over bets or tweeting on a tilt about how a parlay he didn’t list here hit and now he’s technically up.
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