On Saturday – Texas is Offically Back – Week 4
Hello kind reader and welcome back to the critically acclaimed college football column known as On Saturday. If there was an AP top 25 poll for written college football content this one. . . might not be in it, but that’s just because of big media’s bias against independent journalism.
Sad.
It’s time for week 4 of college football. Almost a quarter the way through the season. The warm up games are over. This is where we finally get to see a more complete picture of who these teams are. However, before we get to that, we have to take a look back at what went down in week 3.
Week 3 TL;DW (Too Long; Didn't Watch)
Texas On Top
We have a new number one ranked team in the AP Poll. Georgia slid down to number two after surviving an upset scare to Kentucky 13-12. It was a boring slow game where neither team managed to hit 300 total yards of offense and each averaged less than 4 yards per rushing attempt. I would’ve voted Georgia down just for making us watch a boring game.
Meanwhile the new number one team, Texas, blew out a very bad UTSA team 56-7. That’s it. Nothing notable happened in the game…
Okay fine let’s talk about
Texas QB Quinn Ewers left the game early in the second quarter due to what has now been ruled an abdominal strain. Enter Arch Manning. Arch took one look at the University of Texas San Antonio Roadrunners and chose violence. I say “one look” because his very first pass was a 19 yard touchdown strike. By the of the day Manning had thrown for 223 yds, 4 tds, and broke the Manning stereotype his uncles created when he ripped off a 67 yard touchdown run.
ARCH MANNING TAKES IT 67 YARDS TO THE HOUSE WITH HIS LEGS 😱
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 15, 2024
It's the longest rush by a Texas QB since Vince Young in 2005. pic.twitter.com/AjU9uSli2c
It has already been confirmed that Quinn Ewers will be out for the Longhorns next game against Louisiana-Monroe. This has people wondering, if Manning has another big game, are we seeing the beginning of a QB controversy at Texas?
Absolutely not
I hate to be the buzz kill but Ewers is the starting QB and that’s not going to change. Manning looked great against bad competition and he has super high potential, but he doesn’t have the resume of his senior QB. Ewers walked into Tuscaloosa last year and beat Alabama. He took this squad to the playoffs last year. He walked into the big house this season and punked out the Michigan Wolverines. When healthy, Quinn Ewers is the QB that will steer the Longhorn battleship. This does however show that if he were to ever go down for a long period of time, it appears the Texas offense will be in good hands.
Oof. Florida State
The Seminoles are a mess.
FSU fell to 0-3 after losing 20-12 to Memphis. Once again they were inept offensively and were out gained 337-238. They converted just 2 third downs to Memphis’ 7. Which probably played into why they lost the time of possession battle 36 minutes to 24. Even worse, they just seem snake bitten. Their second play from scrimmage was a fumble. It’s bad news bears (dated reference I know) levels of bad. FSU forced a Mephis punt with two minutes left in the first half. A chance to potentially score some points and gain some momentum going into the locker room. During the return they muffed the punt when a blocker got pushed into the player calling for a fair catch.
Remember when Florida St gave Mike Norvell a 5 mil a year pay raise to not entertain the Alabama job? To be fair, it’s not all on Norvell. The teams overall talent level dropped off from last season, and they whiffed on their transfer portal QB. I won’t go in on DJU, because lord knows the rest of the college football world has already torn him to pieces. However, at some point they have to go back up Brock Glenn to see what they have, it’s not as if the results could be any worse. Sometimes a QB change can give a team a little bit of a spark. The feeling of a fresh start or a reset. That’s something The Seminoles could desperately use in the midst of a season that has black clouds hanging over it.
Alabama Jumps Around on the Badgers 42-10
Some people were actually trying to sell this as a road test for The Tide. If so, Alabama got an A and killed the curve for the class. Wisconsin jumped out to a cute 3-0 lead before Bama took over and never looked back. Not only did they bully Wisconsin defensively, they were in their bag on offense. Jalen Milroe officially entered himself in the Heisman race with over 250 total yards and 5 total touchdowns, two rushing and three passing.
His first touchdown pass was to receiver Ryan Williams. We really need to do something about the youth of America, because they are becoming athletic freaks. Williams is a true freshman and an early enrollee who is only 17 years old. He already has 4 touchdowns in just three games. The length of those touchdowns are 84, 55, 43 and 31. Bama has a legit big play machine.
This view of 17-year-old Ryan Williams' TD 🔥🔥🔥 @AlabamaFTBL pic.twitter.com/VXyDEwg5FU
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 14, 2024
Kansas St. Gets Statement Win Over Arizona
The Wildcats made a big statement in their 31-7 win over The Wildcats this past Friday. Zona opened the game with a seven and a half minute 73 yard touchdown drive. That was the last time they would see the end zone as the game was completely under the Wildcats control from that point on. K-State OC Conor Riley finally took out the QB run playbook we’ve been waiting to see as Avery Johnson finished with 110 yards on the ground to accompany his 156 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air. This game showed that the Wildcats, the Kansas State ones, are a contender in the Big 12. As for The Arizona Wildcats, it was clear they’re not at that level. It was big news in the off season when Noah Fifita and Tet McMillan announced they would not transfer after then head coach Jedd Fisch left. Only problem is, as we saw in this game, all Arizona’s offense has is Fifita to McMillan.
Washing St. Wins the Apple Cup
Yeah yeah. Congrats to the Cougars for the big 24-19 rivalry win. That’s not why I’m writing about this game though. I’m mentioning it out of anger due to this:
You see that Washington? I hope you’re happy. Now my future kids can’t go to college and I have to buy store brand soda. I hope you lose the rest of your games and are forced to join the new Pac-12.
What I’m Watching and How I’m Betting Week 4 - College Football Best Bets
The 12 o clock slate is pretty meh this week. Amongst your viewing options are 40 point underdog Marshall at Ohio State on Fox, or you could tune into ESPN where they’ll try to sell Florida vs Mississippi State as a big time SEC clash and not a jousting competition between two flaming dumpsters. Don’t worry though, because as the day moves along, the schedule gets spicy and there are a lot of big time games to tune into.
As for my betting results so far, if you check the spread sheet you’ll see I’m not doing too well. Have no fear though, I turned the ship around last year and I can do it again. It all starts now, so let’s get into what’s set to take place in week 4.
#11 USC (- 5.5) vs #18 Michigan
I’ve sold all my Michigan stock. While they still have an extremely talented defense, but the offense is so poor it won’t take many points for a legit power four team to out pace them. Things hit bottom this past Saturday when they managed to put up just 28 points on Arkansas State in a game where then-starter Davis Warren threw three interceptions. Throwing three picks against Arkansas would be bad enough, let alone doing it against its much smaller state school.
This has led to Alex Orji being named the new starter. Orji was originally expected by many to be the starter this season until poor camp performances changed plans. The tape on Orji is light as he’s only thrown 6 passes this season. What he does bring to the table is the added element of the QB run. Michigan will be able to run more of a mesh or spread option like scheme with Orji at QB.
How much of a difference can we really expect the QB change to make? USC has played very well defensively. Against LSU, the Trojans played back and kept everything in front of them to avoid getting burned deep. Against Michigan they won’t have to worry about that as much. . .or at all. The Wolverines are going to be running the ball all day while mixing in the occasional short to possibly intermediate throw. USC should be able to be a little more aggressive against the run in this game by bring those safeties down and load the box. That’s mainly why I like USC so much in this one. I realize this is a very tough road environment for The Trojans and QB Miller Moss, but they aren’t going to need a boat load of points to get out with a win. They held LSU to 20. Barring an abundance of turnovers, they should be able to hold Michigan to 13.
Something else I expect is a lower amount of possessions due to the nature of this game. USC doesn’t run a crazy fast tempo, and Michigan is obviously going to be running down that play clock each snap. Lower snap count, lower scoring. Sounds like it’s parlay time.
PARLAY BET: USC ML + Under 44.5 (+171)
#6 Tennessee (-6/5) vs #15 Oklahoma
Tennessee hasn’t really played any one. Going into the NC State game it appeared that would be a valuable win, but it has since been shown that the Wolfpack are just fine defensively and inept offensively. This will also be the first time that Tennessee’s young inexperienced QB, Nico Iamaleava, finds himself on the road in a hostile environment like Norman, Oklahoma. On top of that, this is the toughest defense the Vols have faced led by a good coach in Brent Venables.
With all that said, Tennessee is a buzz saw that outscored their opponents 191 to 13. They feature a lethal defensive front that has three players with win rates over 20 percent and this guy named James Pearce Jr. The Sooners also have a sophomore QB in his first year as a starter in Jackson Arnold. Arnold can run, which is good because he’s going to be forced to do a lot of it against Tennessee. The Vols defense will keep the scoring low, the offense won’t need to break 50 like they have on the first three games. They’ll only need to break the 24 point mark to win this game. While OU has a very strong experienced defense, that’s an easily achievable mark.
I’m not counting out Tennessee having a big offensive day either though. Here’s a scary thing to consider about Iamaleava at QB. Due to the Vols’ strong run game, that’s already totaled over 1000 yards this season, Nico hasn’t been asked to do too much. In the past two games he’s dropped back to throw less than 30 times. Is that to protect him or is there a chance Josh Heupol and company haven’t even taken the Ferrari out of the garage yet? Is it possible it has been hidden as part of a plan for revenge? There’s a chance Heupol has been hiding part of his playbook waiting to get payback on the team that fired him as OC ten years ago.
BET: Tennessee -6.5 (-118)
#12 Utah at #14 Ok St (-2.5)
Big time Big 12 showdown between two title contenders. The Big 12 title, not the natty. Don’t be ridiculous. The big question in this game for the Utes is the status of QB Cam Rising. Rising injured his hand back in week 2 and was out for the team’s week two win over Utah State. The moving of the line on this game says that he’s a go. How healthy he is remains to be seen.
My biggest concern with Ok St. this season is that they’ve seemed to have lost the identity they had in 2023. The team that finished the year with a 91.1 run grade per PFF currently sits at 68.7 through three games. This shows up in the basic stats as well. Last season, Cowboys star player, Ollie Gordon II, ran for over 1700 yards, averaged 6.1 a carry and found the endzone 21 times. In 2024 he’s on a much worse pace with only 194 yards while averaging a measly 3.2 a carry. The run game is how you need to attack this Utah defense. If they get too one dimensional relying on Allen Bowman dropping back and throwing the ball, the Utes will key in, and the Cowboys will be in for a rough night.
The return of Utah’s super senior QB and the lack of a run game has me leaning towards the Utes. I was high on Oklahoma St. to win the Big 12 going into the year, I’m jumping ship until the Cowboys can get a better success rate running the ball.
BET: Utah ML (+113)
Tulane (-2.5) at Louisiana University
Tulane deserves a win. The last two weeks have consisted of tough losses to Power Four competition. First they took Kansas St. to the wire, in a game where they appeared to have tied it late only for it to get called back on an offensive pass interference. Then last week they hung around with Oklahoma until midway through the fourth. That’s two top 15 ranked teams that The Green Wave held their own against. Now they return to group of five play to face the Ragin Cajuns. I like Tulane’s chances at winning the American conference this year and I like them in this game.
BET: Tulane – 2.5 (-115)
Michigan St vs BC
I’m solely watching this game because I’m an Aidan Chiles guy now. The Oregon State transfer is a true sophomore and has helped lead the Spartans to a surprise 3-0 start. At times, Chiles makes horrendous mistakes, and other times he makes throws that turn heads. He’s got 4 TDs to 5 interceptions, 5 big time throws to 7 turnover worthy plays, and an ADOT of 12.7. He’s boom or bust, but just take a look at the boom.
NICK MARSH GOES 77 YARDS TO THE HOUSE!!! 🚀 @MSU_Football pic.twitter.com/N6eF8NpXoF
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 7, 2024
There’s also been improvement. His completion percentage has increased with each game this season, and in Michigan State’s last game he had zero turnovers. The more experience the more polished he seems to be getting. From a whole team standpoint I’m not confident MSU can beat Boston College. However, I am confident that Chiles and the Spartan offense will put up more points than people expect.
BET: Michigan State Total Points Over 19.5 (-118)
