Billy Napier Hot Seat Watch – On Saturday – Week 4 Preview
Did you just read my amazing, albeit posted late, review of week three of college football? Well, you must have, because you’ve come back to read my preview for week four. The slate is packed this Saturday, featuring top-tier matchups across all conferences. There isn’t enough time to cover them all, but I have carefully curated eight games that I want to highlight. All these games will obviously come with a sure-fire, can’t miss betting lock. So far this season, I’m sitting at 4-4 on the bet sheet. Not terrible, not great. Let’s dive into everything happening this week in college ball and see if that record will get better. (It totally is, obviously)
Saturday Marquee
#17 Texas Tech @ #16 Utah(-3.5)
This is a face-off between the two betting favorites to win the Big 12. Both teams share the distinction of not having faced much competition in their first three games, but they have looked dominant throughout. Utah does deserve some extra credit for last week’s game against Wyoming, which has one of the better defenses in the G5, having only given up seven points in its first two games. The Utes’ offense came alive in the second half of the game, totaling over 500 yards, 300 rushing, and winning 31-6. Through the first few weeks of the season, Utah’s run game has been among the most effective in the country with a 60.4% success rate. They’ve already totaled 875 yards as a team, with those yards being dispersed across multiple players; hell, their TE Hunter Andrews has 108 yards on the ground this year. However, they will be running into the teeth of a Texas Tech defense that has four interior defenders weighing 300 pounds or more. Winning the battle in the trenches will be a must, but it is a big help for Utah that Spencer Fano is on their o-line, who will potentially be the first Tackle off the board in the 2026 draft.
The Red Raiders’ offense has been en fuego to start the year, averaging over 92.7 yards per game. QB Behren Morton has been slinging it, closing in on 1000 yds already and throwing 11 touchdowns while pushing the ball downfield at a very efficient rate. The teams HB trio of Cameron Dickey (hehehe), Jakoby Williams, and Adam Hill are averaging six yards a carry. The production has been high for Texas Tech; however, Utah can slow them down. The Utes’ defense is currently holding opposing offenses to a low 33.1% success rate, meaning opposing offenses are on track to convert a first down less than ⅓ of the time. Their LB duo of Johnathan Hill and Lander Barton are run killers, and as a team, Utah has given up less than a yard in both second-level yards per rush and open field yards per rush. Even when runners manage to get past the defensive front, they are immediately smothered. The team also has a serious weapon on the edge in John Henry Daley, who already has five sacks this season, a pass rush grade of 93.2, and a ridiculous 33.3% win rate. As a whole, the Utah defensive front has the pieces to get pressure on Morton to disrupt his timing and help support their secondary. Utah will defend its home turf and win this game, while holding Tech to what could potentially be its lowest scoring output all season.
MY BET: Texas Tech Under 30.5 Points (-118)
#22 Auburn @ #11 Oklahoma(-6.5)
It’s revenge game time as Auburn QB Jackson Arnold makes his return to Norman, Oklahoma. Arnold was the big five-star recruit for the Sooners who took over as the starter last season.
The results were disastrous.
However, there’s a fair argument to be made that Arnold was the scapegoat in the situation as he was behind an offensive line that was riddled with injuries throughout the season, and the receiving core was missing their top three target-getters basically all year. Changes were made during the offseason as Oklahoma opted to bring in John Mateer, so Arnold transferred out to Auburn.
These teams have taken opposite approaches offensively. The Sooners have leaned slightly more on their passing attack. The two main reasons are that they have a potential Heisman winner at QB in Mateer, and the O-Line is more suited to the passing attack, sporting a terrible 52.4 run block grade. It’s been working so far as Mateer is closing in on 1000 yards through the air. He’s also been Oklahoma’s only real threat on the ground, leading his team in both rushing yards and TDs. Meanwhile, Auburn has been more run-heavy, with a play call split of 96 dropbacks to 119 running attempts. Arnold has been a big part of that rushing attack, racking up 231 yards at a rate of seven yards per carry, and finding the endzone four times. The passing numbers haven’t been high, averaging only 170.7 per game, but he has been efficient with a completion percentage over 70% and no turnovers, yet. This game will come down to which team is more equipped to stop the other’s offensive strength. (Hot take, I know). In that scenario, Oklahoma has the edge. They hold teams to less than 100 yards rushing and have also only given up 6.3 points a game. On the flip side, the Tigers (the Auburn ones) have a 55.6 coverage grade and are giving up 220 passing yards a game. It is important to note that Auburn has a strong wideout duo in Eric Singleton and Cam Coleman that could potentially do some damage if they ramp up their passing game. However, I say potentially because OU is also holding teams to under 100 passing yards per game.
A lot of the more advanced stats show Oklahoma has the better offense from an EPA, success rate, and yards per play standpoint. We’ve also seen Mateer and the Sooners move the ball against a good defense when they played Michigan. You can’t say the same about The Tigers. Unfortunately for Jackson Arnold, he’s going to do the same thing he did when he played in Oklahoma Memorial Stadium last year.
Lose.
MY BET: Oklahoma -6.5 (-118)
The B-Slate
Tulane @ #13 Ole Miss(-12.5)
This line feels disrespectful to The Green Wave. Yeah, it’s a G5 vs SEC matchup; however, there’s a clear weakness Tulane can exploit to score points. Their offense averages over 220 rushing yards per game; meanwhile, Ole Miss’ run defense ranks dead last in EPA per play. The bigger question will be whether or not HC Jon Summerall can find a way to slow down a high-powered Rebel offense, which will once again have Trinidad Chambliss (editor note: very cool name) taking snaps behind center. Unlike last week against Arkansas, there’s a threat in the opposing secondary he has to worry about. Tulane safety Javion White, who has a 90.1 coverage grade per PFF and already has three picks this year, will be lurking downfield, waiting for Chambliss to slip up.
MY BET: Tulane +12.5 (-110)
South Carolina @ #23 Missouri(-9.5)
Is Gamecocks QB Lanorris Sellers playing? The answer, IT DOESN’T MATTER IF HE’S PLAYING! This will be the best offense that SC defense has faced so far this season, and it’s a buzz saw. Mizzou currently leads the SEC in total yards, rushing yards, and points per game. They also have an EPA per play of +0.5, which ranks seventh in the FBS. The Gamecocks have too many problems on offense to keep up in this game. Meanwhile, defense is solid, but not good enough to stop Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy from cooking.
MY BET: Mizzou over 30.5 points (-106)
#9 Illinois @ #19 Indiana(-6.5)
Unlike last year, Indiana will be facing its first real test early in the season. Based on the rankings, the Illini being a touchdown dog may seem surprising. However, looking into how well this Hoosier team has played, it becomes clearer. QB Fernando Mendoza has fit OC Mike Shanahan’s (no, not that one) offense very well. The Cal transfer has an 85.6 passer grade, 70% completion percentage, and hasn’t thrown a single pick, along with nine touchdowns. He’s a big reason why Indy currently ranks 6th in the FBS in EPA per play. This offense is also efficient, having success rates of roughly 50% on both passing and rushing plays. When adding in Illinois’ possible loss of key defensive players, Curt Cignetti’s team should be able to put up some points. However, beating the Illini won’t be easy. The Hoosier D has played well, but Luke Altmyer is far and away the best QB they’ve faced all season. He and his top wideout, Hank Beatty, who caught 95% of his targets, will put Indiana’s secondary to the test. Indiana may cover this spread; however, these teams will be going back and forth, trading scores along the way
MY BET: Over 52.5 Total Points (-120)
Florida @ #4 Miami(-7.5)
Next up on Billy Napier and The Gators’ schedule from hell, the Miami Hurricanes. The Gators are coming off two poor offensive performances, including last week’s particularly disastrous outing against LSU, where QB DJ Lagway threw five picks. Things can’t get much worse this week, but they sure as hell won’t get much better. THE U is holding teams to under 200 yards passing and 87 rushing.
There’s no question that Lagway is going to be under pressure. Miami’s monster edge duo of Ruben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor continues to dominate every week, with both of them currently having a PFF pass rush grade of 90. Leaning on the ground game to take some pressure off Lagway isn’t a viable option either. The Canes run D has an EPA per rush of -0.3, and to go back to Bain for another second, he also has a run defense grade of 92.2. If he’s not the first edge rusher of the board in the 2026 draft, it will be a travesty. Going into detail about what the Miami offense can do against the Gators’ defense is unnecessary when Florida won’t be able to move the ball. The Cane are not only going to win this game, they’re going to do it by more points than the current spread.
MY BET: Miami Alt Spread -9.5 (+112)
I Like Those Odds
Syracuse @ Clemson(-17.5)
This Cuse defense isn’t great, but this Clemson offense has also looked relatively inept. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ (not the other Tigers) defense has played well, but not at the level expected going into the season, giving up 338 yards per game. The secondary, in particular, has been prone to getting caught with their pants down. This may be a cause for concern when you factor in that Syracuse is a pass-heavy team that throws for nearly 400 yds a game. As the more talented team, Clemson should win this game. However, the Orange can play to their offensive strengths. The Tigers haven’t covered a spread yet this season, and they won’t in this game either.
MY BET: Syracuse +17.5 (-112)
UNLV(-1.5) @ Miami (OH)
I get that the Redhawks have played two Power-4 teams to start the season, but they’re still 0-2 and only scored 17 points between both games. Meanwhile, UNLV has scored at least 30 points every game this year. The majority of the numbers in this one are lopsided across the board. We’re once again riding with the Dan Mullen-led Rebels (not the other Rebels) and his rushing attack that’s totaled over 600 yds and 7 tuddies so far this season. QB Anthony Colandrea has 175 of those yards, but he’s also been that dude passing the ball. He has a 94.4 passing grade when he throws 20+ yards down and has seven big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play. Let’s get weird and cook up a parlay for this one.
MY BET: UNLV Over 25.5 Points & UNLV Alt Spread -2.5 Parlay (+625)
