On Saturday – The Complete 2025 SEC Preview
We are home stretching it down the off-season road to the 2025 College football season. We are mere weeks away from Iowa St. and Kansas St. kicking Week 0 off from Dublin, Ireland, on August 23rd. Now seems like the time for Talent Alone’s premiere CFB column, On Saturday, to ramp things up. What better place to start than to preview conferences? Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be posting preview articles on each Power Four conference, hopefully getting it done by that week 0 kickoff. I’ll give my thoughts on every team, in order of betting odds to win their conference, and give you the facts on how their seasons are going to turn out.. We kick things off this week with the all-mighty SEC. I had to start with them because, as we’ve seen, if you talk about college ball without making the SEC feel like the mostest special dominant conference, I’ll have ESPN and SEC beat writers coming after me. I’m not running scared from that smoke; I just don’t feel like dealing with Paul Finebaum sliding into my DM’s.
Enough wasting time, we have a whopping 14 teams to cover. I’ll try my best to keep this article short enough that our editor doesn’t fall asleep mid-read, but I can’t make any promises. Sorry, Adam. So, sit back, grab a nice glass of some southern sweet tea, and enjoy.
Texas Longhorns
Odds to win the SEC: +280
For years, we laughed and snickered as we sarcastically proclaimed, “Texas is back! *smh emoji roflcopter*. However, after finally turning great recruiting classes into two seasons of dominance, we can put that beloved meme to rest right next to the dramatic chipmunk. Matthew McConaughey’s alma mater is no longer back; they’re just here. As made evident by the fact that they are currently the betting favorites to win the SEC and the Natty.
Even when you factor in the players who departed for the NFL, the Longhorn 2025 offense will still be better than last year’s. UT’s run game was inconsistent in 2024; part of that was the season-ending injury to then five-star redshirt freshman CJ Baxter during spring camp. He’s healthy now; however, the team will smartly take a cautious approach when it comes to working Baxter into the offense. This is something they’re equipped to do thanks to Quintrevion Wisner, who heated up as the 2024 season went on and broke the 1K yard mark. Once Baxter is a full go, the big-bodied 6’1” 230lb back, equipped with a size-defying 4.48 forty, will be a game changer.
The other name that raises the caliber of the Longhorn’s offense is obviously the player that everybody’s been talking about, senior right guard DJ Campbell…who will be blocking for starting QB Arch Manning. Finally, after two years of being talked about more than Texas’s actual starting QB, the Arch Era has begun in Austin. There is no mistake about it: if Manning plays up to his potential, it will be a clear upgrade at QB. The third-generation passer is more athletic, dynamic, and has more physical tools than Quinn Ewers did. He’s the X factor, plain and simple. If he is who we think he is, well, to quote Michael Jordan, “the ceiling is the roof” for Texas.
Texas opens up the season looking to avenge its Cotton Bowl loss against the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes. Then they can go on autopilot for three weeks before making a trip to Gainesville to play the Gators in what will hopefully feature an Arch Manning v DJ Lagway Showdown. Sure, they have the rivalry games on the schedule as well, the Red River game against Oklahoma and their season-closing clash with Texas A&M, but let’s all be honest, the one and only conference game where Texas will be pushed to the limit should be their November 15 matchup with Georgia.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 9.5: Over
Playoff Chances: Lock
Conference Contender: Yes
Heisman Hopefuls: Arch Manning
Oddly specific: CJ Baxter 500+ yds after contact
Georgia Bulldogs
Odds to win the SEC: +290
Listen, in its current form, you can never not think Georgia is a contender for the conference, playoff, and the Natty. They always have a plethora of talent and excel at developing those players. They recruit at such a high level that their roster has more stars than a Will Ospreay match in the Tokyo Dome, graded by Dave Meltzer. Was that too deep a cut? To put it in less smarky terms, over the past three years, Kirby Smart has recruited 19 five-star players, and 55 four stars.
Similar to fellow SEC powerhouse Alabama (more on them next), they have a question mark under center. The Bulldogs will be running with Gunner Stockton at QB this year after Carson Beck, who struggled in 2024, transferred to Miami. Stockton got some big game experience at the end of last season. Taking over for an injured Carson Beck in the team’s victory over Texas in the SEC title game, and then going on to start in the team’s Sugar Bowl loss to Notre Dame in the playoffs (GO IRISH). The Tiger, GA native wasn’t a headliner of his 2022 recruiting class, but for some reason, I’m feeling like this could work. A small part of that falls in the unquantifiable category of “intangibles”. The way he handled himself when thrown into the fire for the team’s two biggest games of the year gives me the vibes that Stockton, pun intended, has that dog in him.
Moving on to the more tangible things working in his favor, Stockton has skill-position help around him. When you look back at the 2024 season, a big problem for the Bulldogs was a receiving core that was plagued by drops, with a total of 31. Shout out to Arian Smith for hitting double digits. This year, though, there’s some calvary coming. The program went into the portal and grabbed a potential explosive playmaker in Zachariah Branch from USC. The five-star recruit, and member of 247Sports’ 2023 freaks list, didn’t have the breakout year many were expecting last season. With that said, I’m more confident in the coaching staff at a consistently stable program like Georgia being able to bring out the best version of Branch than I was at his former school. The other player who could be a boost for the team at wideout is senior Colbie Young. I’m not at all talking up Young as a person, nor am I condemning him. The backstory is, he got suspended last season due to charges brought against him; the charges have since been dropped, and he’s been reinstated. I’m simply pointing out the on-field aspect that having a big 6’3” 215-pound target with his skillset for a full season will be a big help for the team. I also expect we see an improvement from the Bulldogs’ O-line this year, which will lead to success for sophomore HB Nate Frazier. I’ve penciled him in for a breakout year after scoring 8 TDs and averaging 5 yds a carry as a true freshman.
The team’s defense will be the expected level of Kirby Smart’s strong this season; that’s not a question. What will be the difference for them this year is having a cleaner and more consistent offense. Even if Stockton is just okay at QB, that will work. Georgia has won national championships with that level of play before. Hell, just go back to 2023. You know what really helped Carson Beck look like a potential 2025 first-round QB? A good run game, a couple of sure-handed playmakers in the passing game like Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers, paired with a defense that always kept games within reach. If Stockton has that, the Dawgs will once again be among the nation’s elite. Looking at Georgia’s schedule, the only two games I consider them to be in legit danger of losing are against Alabama and Texas, both of which will be played in Athens.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 9.5: Over
Playoff Chances: Lock
Conference Contender: Yes
Heisman Hopefuls: None
Oddly specific prediction: Zachariah Branch 1000+ yds 8+ TDs
Alabama Crimson Tide
Odds to win the SEC: +480
Year one of Kalen Deboer in Tuscaloosa certainly had its growing pains, and who could blame him when you consider the program was coming out of one of the most consistent and dominant eras we’ve seen in the sport over 16 years with Nick Saban. Honestly, that’s what was most evident in 2024. Bama didn’t seem to have that same level of discipline and week-to-week consistency that we became accustomed to with Saban at the helm. That’s not a condemnation of DeBoer; you can’t expect him to walk in and immediately have his system or culture in place. Even Saban went 7-6 in his first year with the Tide back in 2007 before he could really transition the program into his image.
With 2024 in the rear view for Deboer and his staff, I’m expecting a bounce-back year from the Tide. Right off the bat, they have the benefit of 14 returning starters. Alabama’s offensive line is set up to be among the best in the SEC, led by potential top ten draft pick LT Kayden Proctor, and we get year two of WR Ryan Williams, who took the conference by storm last year as a true freshman. Did you know he was 17 last season?! I’m also a fan of senior RB Jam Miller, who averaged 4.6 a carry last year and found the endzone 7 times.
To be honest, though, I might just be a fan because his name is awesome.
Defensively, Bama was shaky in 2024; however, they possess some dudes up front in LT Overton and Deonte Lawson. On the back end, they should see improvement as well from guys returning with a year of experience under their belt. I’m particularly pointing at safety Zabien Brown, who started all year as a true freshman, as well as hopefully an increase in snaps for Browns fellow 2024 five-star DB recruit Zavier Mincey.
The big question mark that will determine this team’s success, or lack thereof, is new starting QB Ty Simpson. Maybe I’m overthinking things, but a red flag for me when it comes to Simpson is that he had a chance to become the starter the past two seasons and lost the QB Battle to Jalen Milroe. Third time’s the charm, I guess. Something that could work in his favor, outside of the strong team around him, is the reunion of Kalen Deboer and OC Ryan Grubb. Throughout the vast majority of DeBoer’s head coaching career, he’s had Grubb on the sideline calling plays with a long track record of success. Simpson is also more the type of QB we’re accustomed to seeing on a DeBoer-led team. Maybe all those things can come together, and we’ll see why the junior QB was a five-star recruit.
Similar to last season, Bama has a pretty easy first three games before an early-season showdown at Georgia. From that point on, the only games I have circled as potential losses are a trip to South Carolina and LSU at home. There’s also the worry of the Iron Bowl against Auburn getting weird, but at that point, the Tigers could’ve fired Hugh Freeze, leading to the possible quit factor stopping Auburn from putting up much of a fight.
…Whoops, I almost forgot to say something important. Roll Damn Tide.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 9.5: Over
Playoff Chances: Lock
Conference Contender: Yes
Heisman Hopefuls: WR Ryan Williams
Oddly specific: Zabien Brown 6+ INTs
LSU Tigers
Odds to win the SEC: +650
Pressure is on for head coach Brian Kelly. It’s either make the payoffs or start sprucing up the resume. LSU is paying him a lot of money, and they are a big enough program not to care how large a contract buyout could be.
For the first time in his four years at Baton Rouge, they opened up the checkbook and hit the portal hard. Among the players brought in, receivers Barrion Brown from Kentucky and Nic Anderson from Oklahoma are the standouts, giving QB Garret Nussmeier the tools so LSC can SLING IT. Speaking of the Nuss Bus, he could’ve hit the draft last year, but made the smart move to return for another season. If he shows improvement in his awareness and internal clock, he will be in the Heisman race along with a chance to be the top QB off the board in the ‘26 NFL Draft.
Offensively, I do have some level of concern over their losses on the O-line, players like OT Will Campbell. Even with a top 10 caliber pick like Campbell last year, LSU couldn’t run the ball for crap, and Nuss was often having to rely on his pocket mobility to avoid pressure. However, they have some young, talented players who could step into their roles, and they brought in some help through the portal. I’m not ruling out that we see their line play well as a unit collectively.
In 2023, we saw a terrible Tigers defense waste away Jayden Daniels’ phenomenal Heisman-winning season, but last year, they improved. While they weren’t anything special, they were at least what one would categorize as “solid.” They’ll need to take another step forward, particularly in the secondary, to help avoid a lot of track meet games and support the offense in tight, low-scoring situations. LSU failed to hit thirty points six times last year and lost four of them. While we can pick on the defense, it’s totally fair to throw shade the other way and ask the offense to have some semblance of control on the clock via the run game.
I’m not going to break down their schedule, because Kelly needs to focus on the first step to making the playoffs, and that’s actually winning their season opener. Which is something he’s failed to do in all three seasons at LSU. This year, they open up on the road for a showdown of the Tigers. To clarify, I’m talking about the Clemson Tigers. Not Auburn, Missouri, or Memphis. Or Colorado College, or DePauw, or Lincoln Blue, or Ouachita Baptist (who sent Tom Patterson to the NBA in 1972).
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 8.5: Over
Playoff Chances: High
Conference Contender: Mid
Heisman Hopefuls: Garrett Nussmeier
Oddly specific: Garrett Nussmeier 4000+ yds & 30+ TDs
Texas A&M Aggies
Odds to win the SEC: +1500
HC Mike Elko crushed it in his first year with the Aggies. He managed to mitigate severe roster damage that can happen when a team has a coaching change, and had A&M one win away from making the SEC title game. They lost multiple of their top defenders up front to the draft (Shemar Stewart, Nic Scourton, and Shemar Turner), which is a cause for concern. So, they hit the transfer portal pretty hard and will be looking for incoming additions like Edge rusher TJ Searcy and DT Tyler Onyedin to make up for the loss of production.
It was clear, however, that the program considered upgrading at wide receiver a top priority during the offseason, with their top transfer recruits being pass catchers, headlined by KC Concepcion from NC State. Concepcion broke out as a freshman with the Wolfpack, catching over 800 yds and 10 TDs before suffering a severe drop off in year two. In his defense, if you watched NC State last year, there wasn’t much of anything about that offense that worked. He’s shifty in open space and can rack up the YAC.
Returning to the teams is their effective backfield duo of Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels, who combined for over 1400 yds while finding the endzone 18 times. When you look at this team, they could actually have a King Ghidorah-style three-headed dragon at RB when you factor in Rueben Owens II, who only appeared in two games last season, but was a five-star recruit and the 2nd-ranked running back in the 2023 class.
They have weapons that can work, especially when you consider what we’ve seen from Mike Elko-led teams. Run heavy offenses with mesh concepts in the passing game, designed to get the ball to receivers quickly with space to work with. However, there’s uncertainty under center with QB Marcel Reed, who split time as the starter last season with the now transferred out Connor Weigman. Reed is a threat as a runner, the same way Riley Leonard was for Elko at Duke, but the sophomore was very inconsistent throwing the ball.
Even with the defensive losses up front, the Aggies have 8 returning starters on that side of the ball. Elko has built his success throughout his coaching career on having strong defenses. All of this makes A&M’s formula for winning pretty clear, and it centers on controlling the pace of the game. The defense needs to keep games from getting out of hand to allowing the offense to get physical, control through the ground game, and work to their strengths. That’s a formula that can work, hell, it’s basically how Michigan won a natty, but it has its obvious kryptonite. 4th quarter down a couple scores, and not being able to pick up the offensive tempo. Down even by one score in the waning minutes of a game and being forced into passing situations.
Their schedule isn’t easy with trips to Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas on the docket, along with hosting Florida and South Carolina. I don’t expect them to be competing for the conference title and will need some help to make the playoffs in a best-case scenario 9-3 season. With that said, titles really shouldn’t be the realistic goal for The Aggies this season. It’s more important that they maintain the momentum created from last year with another strong season where they’re at least in the race for something late in the year.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 7.5: Over
Playoff Chances: Low
Conference Contender: No
Heisman Hopefuls: None
Oddly specific: Marcel Reed 15+ INTs
Florida Gators
Odds to win the SEC: +1600
Aaah, Billy. Billy Billy Billy. Here we go again. Same boat as last year.
Going into a season with a tough schedule, people are expecting the ax to drop. After the Gators’ season-opening loss to Miami, where they looked terrible, people began to expect HC Billy Napier wouldn’t make it the entire season. However, he found a life raft in true freshman DJ Lagway, who was 1A or B depending on who you ask in the 2024 recruiting class. The intention wasn’t for him to play right away, but injuries to Graham Mertz made that the case, and it was honestly the saving grace for Napier. Lagway showed flashes of why he has such a high ceiling, and Napier’s team continued to play hard for him. His Gator squad finished the season on a four-game win streak that included putting the final nails in the playoff coffins of Ole Miss and LSU en route to an 8-5 record. When you consider the preseason expectations and how terrible they looked in their season opener, 8-5 wasn’t too bad. Hell, they started 3-3 but managed to go 6-2 the rest of the way. The turnaround was enough of a source of optimism that Florida made it publicly known with a couple of weeks left in the season that Napier would be back in 2025.
Gator Nation really walked into the offseason feeling themselves. After all, there’s a lot to be optimistic about. The defense really came on as 2024 went along, and there’s no real reason why it shouldn’t carry over into this season. Plus, with a QB like Lagway, that offense could cook. Sadly, a slight wrench has been thrown into all of that. Specifically, this wrench. Lagway suffered an apparent calf injury during a team run recently and has since been sporting a walking boot. This comes after last season, when the young QB suffered an injury during a game and had to be helped off the field. Luckily, he only missed one week. However, two injuries within a year officially start the good ole cliche, DJ Lagway, injury-prone? The severity of his current injury is at the center of this season’s outcome and Napier’s future in Gainesville. I reached out to some of my inside sources and was able to get exclusive footage of Napier’s reaction when hearing about Lagway’s latest injury setback.
As I alluded to earlier, the Gators are staring at a tough schedule once again. Starting in week 3, they go through four weeks of playing at LSU, at Miami, vs Texas, and then at Texas A&M. It doesn’t get much easier the rest of the way as they still have games against Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee on the docket. That’s 7 games where Florida will be underdogs in at least 5 of them. 8-5 was good enough to save Napier last year; it won’t be this year. Even if the team goes 5-0 in the games outside of the ones I mention, they would need to go 5-2 in those other games for Napier to truly be considered safe. If this team is healthy and stays healthy, that’s not impossible; however, with injury concerns surrounding Lagway, I’m not confident they can do that.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 7.5: Over (IF Lagway starts week 1 & stays healthy)
Playoff Chances: Mid (with a full season of Lagway)
Conference Contender: Darkhorse (As long as Lagw- you get it)
Heisman Hopefuls: You’ll never guess who I’m going to say.
Oddly specific: Bill Napier fired at the season’s end.
Ole Miss Rebels
Odds to win the SEC: +2000
If you listened closely at the end of last season, you could hear a slamming noise emanating from Oxford, Miss. It was the sound of Lane Kiffin and the Rebels’ window slamming shut.
Over the past few years, Kiffin proclaimed himself the portal king and hit it hard to construct a roster that could compete for the SEC and a playoff berth. To Kiffin’s credit, he understands how to weaponize the portal and over the course of a couple of years, used it to build a murderers’ row of a defense. Suiting up on that side of the ball for the Rebels in 2024 were Princely Ummalanien, Walter Nolen, Jared IVey, Chris Paul Jr., and Trey Amos. All transfer recruits. You know what else all those players have in common? They’re all gone to the NFL, along with QB Jaxson Dart, top wideout Tre Harris, and four-fifths of their starting O-line from last season. With so much roster turnover, it seems impossible for Ole Miss not to take a step back; however, in hopes of avoiding that, Kiffin went back to the well and brought in 30 players via the portal. It does need to be mentioned, however, that the portal pool this go around was notably weaker than years past, so it leads to the age-old question of quality vs quantity. However, Ole Miss did get some players with good upside such as DE De’Shaun Womack from LSU, Princewell Umanielen, the brother of Princeley, and corner Jaylon Braxton, who missed basically all of last season due to injury, but was an all-American as a freshman.
The big offensive question mark is Sophomore QB Austin Simmons taking over as starter. Simmons was a three-star recruit and the 35th-ranked QB in the 2023 class. Ignoring the stars and recruiting rankings, the Moore Haven, FL QB has some traits to like. Most notably, his strong arm, mobility, and handling of pressure in the pocket. Those are all qualities that will click well in Lane Kiffin’s offense. There’s a moment from Austin Simmons’ freshman year that’s burned into my brain. In the team’s big win over Georgia this past season, things started as badly as possible. Jaxson Dart threw an INT on their third play of the game, Georgia cashed in to take the early 7-0 lead, and Dart got a little banged up. While he returned for the rest of the game, Dart did miss the team’s next offensive series. This got Simmons thrown into the fire. He rose to the moment, leading a TD drive where he went 5 of 6 for 63 yards. The importance of that response and how it affected the overall game can’t be overstated enough.
There’s a chance that Ole Miss struggles this year, and I do expect them to take a step back when it comes to competing for trophies. With that said, the word on the street is that the team really like what they’re seeing from Simmons, and Kiffin has a track record of success with his use of the portal.
Ever since Kiffin spent time at the Nick Saban Coaching Rehab program as Bama’s OC, I’ve been a fan of his, so I’m a believer in some of the pieces this team has and think they stay competitive this year. While I think an SEC title is highly unlikely, and a playoff berth will be tough, there is a path to a 9-3 season. Which I consider a win for a program in a year of transition.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 8.5: Over (Buuuut it’s gonna be close)
Playoff Chances: Low
Conference Contender: No
Heisman Hopefuls: QB Austin Simmons
Oddly specific: Lane Kifiin posts 6+ troll posts on X (FKA Twitter)
Auburn Tigers
Odds to win the SEC: +2200
Dead man walking
Believe it or not, I don’t like being mean when I write or talk about sports, but sometimes I have to be. There are certain situations where I would look naive or just outright dumb to not lay into someone or something. Hugh Freeze is one of those situations. To put it bluntly, I still don’t understand why Auburn ever hired Freeze. Before his tenure at Auburn, his last stint as HC in the SEC was from 2012-2016 at Ole Miss, where he, according to the scores of Talent Alone fact checkers, had a record of 12-25. The reason is that throughout his tenure, the program committed multiple NCAA violations that led to 27 wins being vacated and Ole Miss being hit with a two-year postseason ban. Fast forward to the present, he’s two years into his time with the Tigers (Auburn, not the other ones in the SEC), he’s put together back-to-back losing seasons with an overall record of 11-14, 5-11 in SEC play, and lost the one bowl game they made. A bowl game, btw, that they only got into because there weren’t enough 6-6 teams to fill all the games. Those are not the results Auburn wants to say the least.
Going into this season, the program finally spent some money in the portal, the most notable addition being QB Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. The team ranks 8th in 247’s rankings; however, it’s a year too late when you consider this year’s portal pool was objectively worse than the previous. After posting a losing record in ‘23, the program didn’t do anything of note in the portal. Something that raised a lot of discerning eyebrows, considering Auburn was towards the bottom of the conference in offensive production, had no receivers hit 400 yds, and their QB, Peyton Thorne, was a complete net negative when throwing the ball. They opted to run it back with Thorne last season instead of going to the portal, where there were many QBs who went on to have great years for their new teams in 2024. The transfer recruiting runs parallel to their high school recruiting, where Freeze has been unable to improve the overall quality of their classes. Yes, they stole Deuce Knight away from Notre Dame this past fall; however, that is once again two little too late after Freeze spent the majority of the past two years ignoring the most important position in football. Here are some of the signal callers the Tigers missed out on over the course of 2023 and 2024 recruiting cycles: Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava, Avery Johnson, Sam Leavitt, LaNorris Sellers, DJ Lagway, Dylan Raiola, and Julian Sayin. Some of those players may have been in regions outside of Auburn’s pipeline, but in today’s landscape of college football, that matters much less. Raiola was a five-star recruit from Buford, Georgia, and Matt Rhule was able to lure him to Nebraska. Hugh Freeze is on borrowed time at this point. After all, it’s not a great look when you’re 11-14 through two seasons, losing high-profile players to other SEC teams, and pissed off your fan base for playing too much golf. Gotta give it to the guy, though, he’s got a 7.4 handicap, so at least he’s finding success in one sport
The wild part is, in a world where Jackson Arnold recovers from being run over by that bus Oklahoma threw him under, Auburn has the pieces to finally have a good offense again. After all, Arnold was a five-star recruit for a reason. The Tigers also have one of the best wideout groups in the SEC. Sophomore Cam Coleman caught fire in the team’s final three games, showing a Sistine-Chapel-level high ceiling. GA Tech Eric Singleton was arguably the best WR in the portal with proven production, and Malcolm Simmons is a four-star recruit who had a solid year as a true freshman. Plus, the team is returning four out of its five starters on the O-line. Even with all that, it is one of those cases where you just feel like the head coach has lost the plot.
Their schedule isn’t the worst. Their games against Alabama and Georgia are probably marked down as definite Ls. With their games against Oklahoma and Texas A&M being on the road, I have those marked down as losses as well. They open against Baylor, a mid-tier Big 12 team, and I don’t even feel confident calling that a win. The rest of their SEC schedule is Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. A program like Auburn should be able to beat all those teams; sadly, I don’t think they will.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 7.5: Under
Playoff Chances: Zero
Conference Contender: No
Heisman Hopefuls: WR Cam Coleman
Oddly specific: The team loses to Mizzou at home in week 8 and Freeze is fired. Things get worse when Coleman enters the portal come December.
Oklahoma Sooners
Odds to win the SEC: +2300
Oklahoma’s first year in the SEC could not have gone much worse. Many of their conference games ended by the other team leaning in for a handshake and telling the Sooners, “Welcome to the f’n show.” They finished the year 6-7, but more importantly, or damning, is that they went 2-6 in conference play. The main reason was that the Sooner offense was one of the most painful to watch in 2024. The top four wide receivers going into the season got hurt and basically missed the whole season, and their O-line also spent the year plagued with injuries. As a result, the Jackson Arnold chapter in the history book of the Sooners ends up being a paragraph.
The program was so confident in Arnold that they were willing to tell Dillon Gabriel to kick rocks and head into the portal. Here we are a year later, and Arnold was benched multiple times throughout last season and now plays for Auburn.
Looking at the upcoming season, OU is hoping to regroup and make last season seem like a painful memory that never happened. To translate for my fellow videogame players, it was a scuffed run, just wipe and start over.
The biggest difference this year from last is that the team will (probably) be healthier. They have 12 returning starters, which includes their entire offensive line. If they can stay on the field, they should be leaps and bounds better than last year. The O-line health will be important to help support the team’s biggest transfer acquisition, QB John Matteer, who followed his OC at Washington State, Ben Arbuckle, to OU.
I’m a Mateer believer. As long as Oklahoma’s offensive line holds up its end of the deal, Mateer is the kind of QB that can make up for the team’s perceived lack of weapons. He’s accurate, possesses high-level arm talent, and is a dual-threat highlight reel who put up over 3000 yards passing, 1000 on the ground, and scored a combined 44 tuddies in 2024. He also has one of those intangible qualities that I’m a sucker for; he carries himself like a leader, with the presence of someone who wants the game on his shoulders. “Put it all on my plate and I’ll eat the whole damn thing,” kind of energy. I can’t believe I’m about to make this comparison, but at 6’1” 220lbs, he reminds me of a mini-Josh Allen.
Brent Venables’ defense also has six returning starters and will once again be a very good group. The defense keeping games within reach, and John Mateer playing at damn near Heisman levels, will be the needed recipe for success this year, and saying Mateer’s level of play will have to be Heisman level is not hyperbole. The Sooners face a gauntlet this year. Their first five games feature a clash with Michigan and a home game against Auburn, which could be the Jackson Arnold Revenge Game (we here at Talent Alone love a good revenge game). Those games will be coinflips, add in the following game against Kent St., and I have OU hitting the season midpoint with a 5-1 record. However, the second half of the season is a meat grinder. They start things off by going to Jerry World for the Red River game against arch-rival Texas, then they have South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU.
If I’m right about Mateer being a dude this season, he’ll end up a Heisman Finalist, save Veneable’s job, and the team will end up a dark horse playoff team late into the season. Guess that means I’ve officially planted my flag down in Norman. Okay, Boomer Sooner.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 7.5: Over
Playoff Chances: Darkhorse
Conference Contender: No
Heisman Hopefuls: QB John Mateer
Oddly specific: Matter goes to NY as a Heisman Finalist, and I won’t shut up about him leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Odds to win the SEC: +2500
If we were ranking teams by momentum and increased expectations going into the season, the Gamecocks would be number one. At the midway point of the 2024 season, Shane Beamer’s team was 3-3 and suffered a couple heartbreaking close-game losses. They felt better than their record, and that showed the rest of the way. SC went on a six-game win streak to close out the regular season. That run was bookended by a blowout victory over Texas A&M and a win over state rival Clemson on the road in “Death Valley.” This has led to playoff expectations by many, and QB Lanorris Sellers is getting all levels of hype, with some even considering a potential Heisman candidate. Needless to say, the hype levels surrounding this team have gotten very high.
Which is why I feel the need to be the one to tell everyone repping the Gamecocks to brace themselves for a letdown.
First off, there are the defensive losses due to the NFL draft. While the Gamecocks have some capable players stepping into starting roles, the losses of S Nick Emmanwori, along with the LB duo of Kyle Kennard and Demetrius Knight, are tough to make up for. SC’s ability to get after the passer was a big part of their defense last year, as they ranked sixth in the nation in sack percentage. The loss of Kennard and Sanders in particular leaves a lot of production on the table. Luckily, they do still have Dylan Stewart, who registered 7 sacks, 10 QB hits, and 34 hurries as a freshman last year. However, he now faces the challenge of not having Kennard on the other end. The hope is either, he beats the majority of the double teams he’ll see, or that the extra attention Stewart gets opens things up for other players.
I have questions surrounding the team’s weapons on offense as well. The wideout group is underwhelming, and they have a hole to fill on the ground. Sellers was a two-way monster that put up over 800 on the ground alone last season. Having that dynamic dual-threat QB is always a plus, but to get the most out of it schematically, you need to have a reliable RB1 that forces defenses to account for multiple running threats. The team lost its leading HB, Raheim Sanders, to the NFL. In short, the current way this Gamecock offense is constructed sets up for a scenario where Sellers will have to hit that Heisman level of play for the team to make the playoffs. While this is college football, where having Superman at QB can make up for most deficiencies, I still worry for teams in that position. The last three Heisman winners appeared in zero playoff games.
Their schedule is not easy. It includes road trips to LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, along with hosting Oklahoma, Alabama, and Clemson at home. They’ll need to go 4-2 in those six to make the playoffs, because despite all of the pro-SEC complaining last year, I don’t think a 9-3 team gets in this year either. I’m not saying they can’t. The hype has just gotten very high, and that makes me leery.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 7.5: Over
Playoff Chances: Low
Conference Contender: No
Heisman Hopefuls: Lanorris Sellers
Oddly specific: Despite Dylan Stewart having double-digit sacks, and the team’s total sacks drops from 41 in 2025 to 25 or less.
Tennessee Volunteers
Odds to win the SEC: +3100
A step back is inevitable for the Vols this year. While Nico Imaleava exhibited some growing pains in his first year as a starter in 2024, their defense was very good, and Nico still possessed the five-star recruit ceiling that he could potentially get closer to with a year of experience now under his belt. There was a good reason for optimism going into this season. Then things took a big turn with Iamaleava’s departure after some messy attempts to negotiate a larger NIL deal. They basically did a player swap with UCLA. Nico transferred to the Bruins, and Joey Aguilar, who had just transferred to UCLA during the winter window, took the portal to Tennessee. Don’t get me wrong, Aguilar played very well during his two seasons at Appalachian State, but he’s a clear step back from Nico based on potential and the talent he possesses. Behind Aguilar is four-star recruit and redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger, who has a skill set that’s not too shabby. With Aguilar going from playing in the Sun Belt to facing SEC defenses regularly, I’m banking on Merklinger getting the start at some point.
The Vols open up the season with a neutral-site game against Syracuse. Between me being a Fran Brown believer and the team starting former Notre Dame QB Steve Angeli, I’m contractually obligated not to scratch that off as a definite win for Tennessee. More importantly, they have Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Kentucky on the schedule. Those are four defenses that could make Josh Heupel’s offense look inept. If that’s the case, then I expect that after their second bye week, they opt for Merklinger for the last three games of the season to see what they have in him, although don’t rule it out sooner if Aguilar struggles against some of the second-tier defenses on their schedule.
Lastly, when you add in the equation their uninspiring wideout group and the loss of Dylan Sampon to the NFL, there’s no way for the Vols not to struggle moving the ball. Their defense will be able to keep them in games, but when it comes to nut-cutting time, they won’t have the offensive firepower.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 8.5: Under
Playoff Chances: Zero
Conference Contender: None
Heisman Hopefuls: None
Oddly specific: Aquilar gets benched at some point for Jake Merklinger
Missouri Tigers
Odds to win the SEC: +9500
Mizzooouuuuu!!!
Don’t sleep on these Tigers (not referring to the Auburn or LSU ones). To quote one of my favorite Bill Simmons-isms, this Mizzou team, kinda frisky?
Head Coach Eli Drinkowitz had led his squad to back-to-back double-digit win seasons, putting the program on its best run since the Gary Pinkel era. However, all the recruiting and roster building the Drink™ did to get Mizzou to their last two successful years is now in a notable state of turnover. There’s a hefty list of players who left for the NFL. The offense took the biggest hit, losing *takes deep breath* OT Armand Membou, the 7th overall pick in the draft, their other starting tackle Marcus Bryant, vet QB Brady Cook, lead HB Nate Noel, and their top wideout duo of Luther Burden III and Theo Wease.
Determined not to take a short-term step back, Mizzou hit the portal hard, bringing in a total of 22 players to fill in holes at a multitude of positions. In total, their transfer call ranks 7th per 247Sports, is 14 players deep, and 11 of them are expected to be starters. It is a must for the program that they hit on some of those acquisitions. The list of notable transfer players is *takes another deep breath* QB Beau Pribula, Edge Damon Wilson, RB Ahmad Hardy, WR Kevin Coleman Jr., Edge Nate Johnson, LB Josiah Trotter, WR Xavier Lloyd.
Now you may be saying, “Wow, Mike, are you just going to list those players and not give us any more context?” My response to that is, give me a break. I’m ten teams in and still have four more to go. Also, literally all those players fall into the category of, “That player has upside and this could work, but here’s the caveat on why it won’t.” The two most important transfers are QB Beau Pribula and five-star edge rusher Damon Wilson. Pribula opted to leave Penn St. after Drew Allar announced he was coming back. PSU had a package on their offense for Pribula that utilized his capability as a rusher, but how that’ll translate to being a full-time starter is a complete unknown. As for Wilson, he transfers in from Georgia, and it’s never a bad move to grab guys from a program with a hit rate on defensive players like Kirby Smart’s squad. However, in the play time he did see last season, the results were middle of the road.
Mizzou’s schedule isn’t the toughest, but for a team in flux, it has its fair share of games that carry the potential for a loss. Among those games are *takes one final deep breath* South Carolina, Alabama, at Auburn, at Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and at Oklahoma. Quick math tells you that’s half of their regular season. Not great, but if they win the other six, they just need to win one of those and they’ll have a winning season along with going over on sportsbook expectations.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 6.5: Over
Playoff Chances: Very Low
Conference Contender: No
Heisman Hopefuls: None
Oddly specific: I get sucked in and bet more money on this team than I should
Arkansas Razorbacks
Odds to win the SEC: +19000
The Razorbacks are still really stuck in Pitt-Man.
Ha ha! See what I did there?
Sam Pittman has been the head coach of the Razorbacks for 6 seasons now. His second year leap from 3-7 to 9-4 showed signs of optimism that he had Arkansas going in the right direction. Unfortunately, they’ve taken steps back in the years since, with a collective 18-20 record over the past three seasons. Arkansas ranked towards the bottom of the SEC in multiple defensive categories last season, such as points allowed, rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed (where they were dead last). There is little evidence to support any notable improvement this year. This means, in a similar fashion to last season, their offense is going to need to bail them out at times this season.
The Razorbacks offense was a pleasant surprise in 2024, and, by the numbers, they performed better than expectations, which saw them have a 0.93 increase based on Sharp Football’s beta ranking. QB Taylen Green indeed had a breakout year, 800 yds on the ground, and 3146 through the air. However, he was inconsistent, with performances fluctuating week to week and even more notably, despite all the yardage, he only scored 17 total TDs, 15 of them passing. That paltry touchdown rate is because the Razorbacks ranked 71st in red zone scoring percentage. There needs to be a step up by Green, which is going to be tough to do when you look at some of the team’s departures.
Arkansas’ Leading receiver, Isaac Tesla, gone to the NFL. 2nd leading receiver Isaiah Sategna is now an Oklahoma Sooner. Lead running back Ja’Quiden Jackson was drafted by the Jaguars. Too much is going to be on Green’s shoulders, and if they need him to be Superman to have a successful season, the result won’t be great. Here’s a visual example of what that will most likely look like.
They have trips to Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Texas this season; the latter two are back-to-back and late in the season. At home this year, they’ll play host to Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Mizzou. That’s eight games of their 12 where they will either be underdogs or best best-case scenario, favorites with a sub-three-point spread. Their tough schedule leads directly to the reason why Pittman’s time in Fayetteville might be coming to an end.
Sam Pittman’s contract goes until 2027, but carries with it an interesting buy out clause. If his overall record starting from his second year with the program, 2021, drops below .500, the cost of that buyout gets cut in half. It’s honestly what could’ve saved his job last year. His record in the time frame I just mentioned is currently 27-24. 4-8 and he hits that mark. At the end of the day, when you look at this roster top to bottom, there’s not enough talent to avoid a losing season, and that 4-8 record is a very realistic possibility.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 5.5: Under
Playoff Chances: ZERO
Conference Contender: NO
Heisman Hopefuls: None
Oddly specific: Pittman drops below .500 and is fired
Kentucky Wildcats
Odds to win the SEC: +30000
Mark Stoops is entering his 13th season as Kentucky’s head coach. He’s a fairly respected coach, even if his record doesn’t jump off the page. Stoops has managed to have two 10-win seasons and has taken the Wildcats to a bowl game for eight straight years. That’s not too bad a football resume when you’re coaching at a basketball school. The expectations at Kentucky shouldn’t be too high. The goal there each year, honestly, is to make a bowl game and not be demolished in conference play. The program didn’t achieve either of those last season. Kentucky can tolerate not making the playoffs or SEC championships, but losing seasons and not being competitive isn’t something any program will deal with for long.
Mark Stoops will need to turn things around to avoid finding himself on the unemployment line. He rose through the collegiate ranks in a multitude of roles on defensive coaching staffs, and that’s shown through, as he tends to put together teams that won’t let opposing offenses walk over them. However, even that’s in question considering they lost seven defensive starters, most notably CB Maxwell Hairston and DT Deone Walker, both of whom got drafted by the future 2025 Super Bowl-winning Buffalo Bills (editor note, the 2025 Super Bowl already happened and the Eagles won), and their genius GM Brandon Beane.
Still, even with the question marks on defense, the biggest need for this team is to get better at scoring points. In an attempt to do that, they went to the portal to find a new QB in Zach Calzada. The senior QB started his college career at Texas A&M before transferring to the illustrious Incarnate Word in the FCS.
Trivia time, what’s the Incarnate Word mascot? If you guessed the capital letters, you’re a funny guy like me, but wrong. They are the Cardinals.
Calzada put up some numbers last year in his second season with Incarante, but going from FCS to SEC is basically the biggest jump in competition a QB can make. With that said, you could sell yourself on the move by pointing out that Calzada did start 10 games at A&M as a sophomore. Maybe that SEC cup of coffee, coupled with him now being an experienced and developed QB, will be able to get the Wildcats back on track. I doubt it, and I think the Mark Stoops era is coming to an end. Any chance of him surviving another year died the day their schedule was released. They play Ole Miss week two, and then have a mid-season gauntlet that goes, in order, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida. Throw in their rivalry game at Louisville at the end of the season, and the best-case scenario, the Wildcats will be sitting at 4-8 when the dust settles.
Luckily for Stoops, you can at least guarantee he won’t get fired midseason. The school will be too busy making sure its basketball team is ready to go. All joking aside, he did the best that he could considering the resources of UK football, and with his long coaching resume, he won’t be sitting on his couch too long.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 4.5: Under
Playoff Chances: ZERO
Conference Contender: None
Heisman Hopefuls: None
Oddly specific: Stoops is fired and gets hired as a DC next season.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Odds to win the SEC: +30000
How about 2024 Vandy? It was one of the best seasons they’ve had in a long time, as they were no longer checked off as a win for other teams in the SEC.
Just ask Alabama.
Leading this turnaround is GM Barton Simmons, who took the position back in 2021 after a career in the scouting departments for Rivals.com and 247Sports. It took four years for his work to bear fruit, but building a winning team at Vanderbilt would be a multiple-year process for anyone. One of Simmons’ recent moves that gave his program a boost was his transfer portal recruitment of QB Diego Pavia from New Mexico State after hiring Pavia’s NMSU coach, Jerry Kill, to their staff as an offensive consultant. Pavia isn’t a world beater, and doesn’t have the physical tools that translate to being an NFL QB, but he’s still a fun duel threat QB that can make defenses pay when they slip up. Once again, just ask Alabama. He also adds a fun swagger-filled spark to the team, and after reigning victorious in a battle with the NCAA, he will be returning to play another collegiate season at the age of 24.
The bottom line is, Vandy won’t be for competition for anything big this season, with their main goal being to make another bowl game. However, that is not the point of the new direction this program has started taking; it is about being fun and competitive and making the fans excited about Commodores football and viewers watch their games. Posting another winning record, while being a group that other teams can’t half ass against, is a win.
I won’t lie, though, the path to doing that won’t be easy. They have an early trip to Blacksburg to face VA Tech in week two; however, I’m down on the Hokies this year, so that’s a game the Commodores could win. The real challenge, as it is for most SEC teams, is with their conference schedule. Vanderbilt has trips to South Caroline, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee this year, along with games against LSU and Auburn at home. I don’t think they hit that goal of a winning season this year, but I’ll shoot my shot and guarantee they catch one ranked team with their pants down by pulling off a big upset. That upset, whoever it may be against, is going to be the difference when it comes to at least hitting the over of 4.5 wins.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 4.5: Over
Playoff Chances: Zero
Conference Contender: No
Heisman Hopefuls: None
Oddly specific: Team gets one weird upset as two-score underdogs.
Mississippi St. Bulldogs
Odds to win the SEC: +30000
Started from the bottom, now we … still at the bottom.
I see little reason not to believe the Bulldogs (not Georgia, the other ones) will be at the bottom of the conference this season. If you’re a Mississippi St. fan, stop reading this portion and scroll down to the next team, because I’m about to say some things.
Okay, did they leave?
If there was ever a team that screams, “I’m just in this conference due to geography,” it’s Miss St. Not only are they at the bottom of the SEC, they’re not leaving anytime soon. It’s not a program with the firepower to do so, and even worse, they don’t even have company at the bottom anymore. Vanderbilt has taken steps forward, and Kentucky at least has a strong coach who will produce a good defense more often than not. Mississippi State joined the SEC in 1932. Since that time, they have had an overall record of 218-412 against SEC teams. They’ve only had a ten-win season twice since Y2K happened. They’ve only had three of them since World War II ended. They had a losing record in half of their seasons over the last twenty years. At one point Mississippi St. had a head coach with the first name Sylvester for FOUR YEARS! What the hell am I even writing about. I’m sitting here at my computer clicking away on the keys and splitting hairs between some of the strongest programs in the nation. But now, half way through, I have to stop to give some well thought out in depth takes on the team whose rivalry game against Ole Miss is called “The Egg Bowl.” They have a losing record in that series as well by the way. Let’s all be honest. The fact that this program has the same mascot as GEORGIA feels damn near illegal.
Let’s go through their schedule. This season they face- it doesn’t matter university. Here’s the link, look at it yourself.
The Mississippi St. Bulldogs 2025-26 TL;DR, they’re going 0-8 in the SEC and best case scenario 3-9 on the year. That’s IF they can handle Southern Miss, Northern Illinois, and Alcorn State.
Final 2025 Season Predictions:
Total wins O/U 3.5: Under
Playoff Chances: When pigs fly, go into space, find life on Mars, then come back to earth and enslave the human race.
Conference Contender: See above
Heisman Hopefuls: None
Oddly specific: I crap on them all year and then they somehow upset Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl to hit the over.
