On Saturday – What the Hell Happened to Texas? + Week 2 Best Bets
The long wait is over, and college football fans are rejoicing, or crying depending on what team you root for, as the superior football product in America is once again underway. Technically, things got started a couple of weeks ago with what is referred to as Week 0. It was a nice appetizer, but nothing too notable happened outside of Kansas St. QB Avery Johnson’s dad fighting his brother in the parking lot after K St. lost to Iowa St. in the first game of the 2025 CFB season in Dublin. Don’t worry, they hashed it out. Things really got kicked into gear this past week with a slate of games that started Thursday and went all the way to Monday. All of us viewers and aficionados of college ball were treated to top ten matchups, upsets, and all the craziness that makes up what we love about the sport.
There are four months of college football in front of us, and if college football is back, then you better believe that Talent Alone’s premiere weekly college football column, On Saturday, is back as well. The best source of information on the internet when it comes to CFB reviews, previews, and bets. I was unfortunately unable to do this series last season due to my little hiatus from the website. I was working undercover with Conor Stalions and Nick Cage, stealing stuff. We were calling ourselves “The Stealers” until we ran into some trademark issues. However, when I did it back in 2023, it was among the most fun I’ve ever had working on a project (you know, because I’m always working on so many projects). The point is, I am extremely excited to bring this thing back and make it even better than before.
Enough blabbing, let’s talk some college ball. Que the intro music! (Just play whatever song you want for 15 seconds before you start reading).
College Football - Week 1 Headlines
Defending Champ Buckeyes Start Season With Statement Win
Week 1 got things started with its most anticipated matchup as #3 Ohio State faced off at home against #1 Texas. It was also the beginning of the Arch Manning era as the heavily hyped QB prospect made his first start against real competition. It was not the fireworks-filled game many had hoped for, but in the end, Ryan Day and the Buckeyes hit Steve Sarkisian and Arch with the horns down, defeating them 14-7.
The top storyline coming out of this one was obviously the poor outing Manning had. The legacy QB finished the game going 17 of 30 for 170 yards with one touchdown and an interception. Considering all the constant talk and hype around Manning, the internet had a field day roasting the kid. When it comes to the sports world, we all love to overreact to some extent, and it was a notably bad day for Arch; however, everybody needs to calm down a bit. Arch mania did hit obnoxious levels over the off-season, but I still feel the need to come to his defense.
This was, for all intents and purposes, Manning’s first real start. Yes, he did start two games in 2024, but those were at home against Louisiana Monroe and Mississippi State. That’s in a completely different universe than this past Saturday, where he was on the road playing not only a good team, but one of the best teams in the country coming off of winning a Natty. It was clear that Arch was rattled somewhat, something Sark was expecting based on the safe bubble-wrapped offensive play calling the Longhorns had early on in the game. We saw a lot of running the ball with easier-designed passing plays mixed in until the game progressed, and Texas was forced to open things up more.
One of my biggest concerns for Texas coming out of this one is their receiving group. Halfback CJ Baxter led the team in receptions as the Longhorn wideouts struggled to create some space for themselves. I’ll be fair and add the caveats of the Arch struggles, along with the fact that this is arguably the best secondary they’ll face all season. While the poor offensive day for Manning and Co. will be the leading story of this game, there are still some good things we saw from UT. The biggest thing going against Arch in the game was this Buckeye Defense. God damn did they look good. Matt Patricia, you pencil behind the ear sporting SOB. When Patricia was announced as OSU’s new DC, I had no clue how that would work out, but if this game is any indication, it’s going to work out just fine. The former (terrible) NFL coach had the Longhorn offense confused, disgusting covers to perfection. There were multiple instances in this game where the defense had Manning not knowing where to go with the ball after it was snapped, and what he thought he saw at the line ended up being completely different.
It was far from the way Sark and his squad wanted to start the year, but there were still a lot of things to take away that show why this team is still one of the best five in the country. Number one, just like Ohio State, god damn is this Longhorn defense good. To put it plain and simple, they’ve got some dudes. Colin Simmons, Anthony Hill Jr., Malika Muhammad, Trey Moore, and Michael Taaffe. Honestly, the game may have been boring, but we probably watched the best two defenses in the country play each other this past weekend. The new look Texas O-line also played well, which helps quell some of the concerns over player turnover from last year. In direct relation to that last point, the Longhorns found success running the ball for stretches, and the RB duo of CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner will be among the best in the country this year, eventually. Lastly, once Sark was forced to open up the play calling later Arch made some of the plays we had expected to see throughout the game. The pieces for Texas are all there; just give the offense a couple more games to find its flow. Their next three games are pushovers, but I’m confident the offense that shows up for their week 6 showdown with Florida is going to look vastly different than what we saw here.
As for the Buckeyes’ new QB, freshman Julian Sayin, he handled the workload he was given well, he was efficient, and he never appeared rattled by the moment. He didn’t light up the box score, 13 of 20 for 126 and a tuddy, but in a similar vein to the Texas offense, give them a little bit of time. Julian Sayin’s ceiling is high, his O-line is stout, and the team’s receivers are talented. The pass game will open up, and the explosive plays will come. The only aspect of this Buckeyes offense that I did circle as a potential problem was their ground game. CJ Donaldson and James Peoples split carries; the results weren’t great. Donaldson averaged 3.5 yds on his 19 attempts, Peoples averaged 2 on his 10 carries. I think the passing attack is going to naturally get better with reps, but this run game, this might be a harder nut to crack. Even with that one red flag, and the underwhelming way this game played, I’m in total agreement with the latest polls having THE Ohio State Buckeyes at the top of the rankings as the new #1.
Upset of the Weekend - Florida St. downs Alabama
In my SEC preview, I said that the Crimson Tide lacked week-to-week discipline and consistency in 2024. This was made evident by them getting upset twice as multi-touchdown favorites against Vandy and Oklahoma. Whatever the cause may be, the problem hasn’t been solved, as they suffered a multi-touchdown upset to start the season. It was the first time Bama lost their season opener since 2001, and let me tell you, the world did not handle it well. Kalen Deboer was buried beyond belief across multiple media platforms as comparisons to Nick Saban were made. To be fair, it’s not a great look when you look at some of the numbers, like how Saban lost to unranked teams only four times since 2008, and DeBoer has tied that through his first 14 games as head coach. I understand the frustration of Bama faithful because this team is uber talented on paper and just keeps laying eggs. They opened the game with a nice TD drive where they attacked FSU at the line of scrimmage, running the ball down their throat and sparingly asking new starting QB Ty Simpson to throw the ball. This didn’t go unnoticed by the Seminole coaching staff as they adjusted, adding a man to the box and telling The Tide to bring it. From that point on, their run game was gone. Putting the pressure on Simpson to deliver. Similar to when you buy something on Amazon that says “get it tomorrow”, Simpson didn’t deliver. The senior QB didn’t play awful, but he struggled to hit open receivers or to handle instances when FSU managed to get pressure. I’m not going to immediately call for the guys benching after one game, but a couple more performances like this and it could be Keelon Russell or Austin Mack time. Sloppy play plagued the team in other areas as star wideout Ryan Williams had three drops and the defense missed 14 tackles. In a game where Bama seemingly had the advantage in the trenches, they only managed to get ten pressures while Florida St. got into the Tide backfield 29 times. This wasn’t some fluky slip on a banana peel upset. Alabama got beat physically and out-executed.
Offensively, one person whose effect on this game can’t be understated is that of new OC Gus Malzahn. The former Auburn head coach and Natty winner has a history of success against the Crimson Tide. While it’s a totally different regime at Bama now, he still had the secret sauce to take them down. It was a classic Malzahn game offensively as they dominated on the ground, putting up 230 yds, while keeping the passing attempts low but efficient. It’s a game plan that’s perfect for Boston College transfer and new starting QB Thomas Castellanos. A dual threat, Castellanos put up 78 yards on the ground with one touchdown while going 9 of 14 through the air for 152 yards. It was a win that the Seminoles and all their fans needed. A source of catharsis as they wash away the torment of 2024. There was a nice bow tied on it when you consider what preceded that cursed season. They ended 2023 being left out of the four-team CFP despite being an undefeated ACC champion. The main reason the committee left them out; their star QB Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury in the team’s regular-season finale. The team that got in instead of FSU? The Alabama Crimson Tide. You could see the outpour of emotion at Doak S. Campbell Stadium as the clock hit triple zeroes and the crowd rushed the field.
As for Alabama, there are questions surrounding the team as to what’s wrong and how they fix it going forward. They have two weeks against easier competition at home to find those answers, UL Monroe and Wisconsin, before they head to Athens for a showdown with Georgia. The talent is there, but the execution isn’t, so far. Much has been made about Kalen Deboer’s 60+ million dollar buyout; however, that buyout is not a lump sum, it’s in monthly installments. While the program would be taking on a new expense, it would be something that can be plugged into a budget and planned for accordingly. Even with Bama losing four games last season, I never expected Deboer would have this level of heat on him a mere week into the season, yet here we are, and the reality situation is the leash is now seeming shorter than I once thought. A couple more bad losses, another four-loss season, even missing the playoffs, could be the breaking point for the powers that be in Tuscaloosa to quickly move on from the first coach of the post-Saban era.
LSU Breaks the Week 1 Losing Streak
Since 2019, LSU has opened its season with a loss. This felt like a must-win, not just to finally start 1-0, but facing the then #4-ranked Clemson on the road gave them the chance to make a statement. A chance to show they are not just a good team, but a playoff team, and National Title Contender. Consider the statement made as they walked onto Clemson’s home turf, also referred to as Death Valley, and got the 17-10 victory.
It was a tale of two halves for the LSU offense after turning the ball over twice and only putting up three points through the first thirty minutes. Things looked much different in the second half as the O-line started to give QB Garrett Nussmeier a little extra time, allowing the Nuss Buss to get rolling and push the ball downfield. After a missed field goal by Clemson, the LSU offense came to life, taking the ball 69 yards downfield and capping the drive off with a Caleb Durham touchdown run to even things up at 10. Their defense followed that momentum shift by picking off Clemson QB Cade Klubnik on the second play of the next drive. A few plays later, Nussmeier threw an absolute beauty of a pass to Barrion Brown that was initially called down at the one.
🎯 https://t.co/iAoT0qca7V pic.twitter.com/s9MHs5bTEP
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) August 31, 2025
The play was reviewed for what we all thought was to see if he actually scored. However, the refs picked the third option and called it incomplete to everybody’s surprise. The criteria for a catch have apparently hit extreme levels. LSU ended up settling for a field goal, which was missed. In the past, this is where Brian Kelly and his team would unravel. This time, they didn’t; they fought back. Their D forced a three-and-out, and the offense marched 73 yards downfield before Nussmeir hit Trey’Dez Green for the score and the early fourth-quarter lead. The scoring stopped from there on, but Brian Kelly’s defense put the clamps on. Clemson had three more chances to tie the game. Those drives went turnover on downs, punt, and turnover on downs. Overall, I was extremely impressed with LSU’s defense, which has been a weakness for this team the past couple of years, as they held Clemson to under 300 yards of offense and 3-13 on third down.
As for Clemson, while nowhere near as bad as their lifeless performance in last season’s opener against Georgia, it is another in a recent series of losses to top SEC competition. It added more fuel to the narrative fire that there is a ceiling between the program and the nation’s elite that they can’t break through in college ball’s current landscape. Offensive Coordinator Garrett Riley and his offense had no answer to this new look LSU defense. The run game was a big question mark going in, and first impressions point to it being a big problem. They tried to run the ball 20 times, and totaled a messily 31 yards. I’ll do the math for you; that’s 1.6 a carry. Things didn’t fare too much better for QB Cade Klubnik, who went 19 of 38 for 230 yards and the one interception. The senior QB crumbled whenever the LSU pass rush beat the O-line and got into Klubnik’s kitchen. During the game and in the days following, many made sure to point out that Klubnik was without the team’s top target, wideout Antonio Williams. That’s a fair thing to mention, but for a QB who was getting Heisman hype in the preseason, I would expect him to overcome the absence of one receiver. I’m not closing the book on these Tigers. They are still the favorite next to Miami to win the ACC and, as of now, I still consider them a playoff team. I just need to see more for me to take them seriously as a contender for the Natty
Miami Victorious in Renewal of Catholics vs Convicts
The final of this past weekend’s big three top ten matchups saw the National Champion runner-up Fightin’ Irish travel to South Beach for a clash with Miami. Notre Dame once again has title hopes as they have a strong roster on both sides, with the one big caveat being the uncertainty of having a new freshman starting QB in CJ Carr. On the other side, Miami was looking to start the year off strong after a disappointing end to last season. A phenomenal offensive year led by QB Cam Ward was squandered as their poor defense led to two upset losses, the second of which came at the end of the regular season to Syracuse. That loss cost the Hurricanes a spot in the ACC title game, as well as the playoffs. The Canes went back to the transfer portal for a new starting QB and brought in former Georgia Bulldog Carnson Beck. After a frustrating 2024 in Athens, Beck is looking for a bounce-back to rehab his draft stock that took a hit last season. He got off to a good start and played well in this one. He avoided any big mistakes and made the smart decisions you’d expect from someone with his experience.
The importance of “the middle 8 minutes“ of a game is a talking point that’s become so heavily used that it’s right up there with, “they really need to find some success on the ground to open up this pass game.” While cliché, it’s very accurate in close games. CJ Carr pulled off a “No no no no no YES!” touchdown pass to tie things at 7 with 5:21 left in the first half. Miami then responded with a little over five-minute drive to kill the clock, capped off by CJ Daniels’ highlight catch.
CJ. DANIELS.
— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) September 1, 2025
Hey @SportsCenter, you might want to take a look at this one 🤯🔥 pic.twitter.com/2u7iPPB0dr
Coming out of the break, the Canes got the ball back and once again made their way down the field for a score, doubling their lead and taking control of the game. Many concerns about Miami going into this season were how they would make up for lost production at receiver after losing their top four target getters from last season. However, if you listened to or read any Miami reporter over the course of the summer, they were all talking about this true freshman, Malachi Toney. The son of former NFL wideout Antonio Brown, no, not that one, Toney was further down recruiting boards as an undersized three-star recruit who opted to pass on his senior year of high school and reclassify. You know what that means? He’s 17! Move over, Ryan Williams, you’re old news; there’s a new highlight college player who is not old enough to buy cigarettes. It was only one game, but it appears Miami might have found themselves a dude at pass catcher. Toney, who finished with 6 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown, flashed some explosive play ability and showed off his ability to slip through tackles to pick up YAC.
The Irish finally came back to life in the fourth and mounted a comeback, putting up 17 points in the fourth after scoring only 7 in the first three quarters, and tied the game 24-24 late after Carr scored a touchdown on the greatest play in all of football, the QB draw. Look at it! It’s simple, it’s effective, it’s a work of art.
CJ CARR RUNS IT IN! TIE GAME! pic.twitter.com/DAdgMxGVf5
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) September 1, 2025
Miami didn’t crumble under the pressure, however, and put together a field goal drive to take the lead back with only a minute left. Notre Dame still had time, but no timeouts and a true freshman at QB. The Hurricane defense put an exclamation point on their victory with back-to-back sacks as time expired. It was a fitting way for things to end, because one of the most impressive aspects of Miami’s performance came from their front seven. Their defensive end duo of Akheem Mesidor and Reuben Bain combined for eight total pressures, two sacks, two tackles for loss, two hits on the QB, and four hurries. Bain posted a 23.5% win rate while Mesidor had a monster 37.5%. Notre Dame is arguably the best O-line Miami has on their schedule this year, so good luck to the next eleven teams. THE U also kept Notre Dame’s run game in check, with the Irish failing to hit the 100-yard mark as a team. That stat correlates with what was the most confusing aspect of Notre Dame OC Mike Denbrock’s game plan. They came out throwing, with eight of their first nine offensive plays being drop-backs. Meanwhile, the team’s most lethal weapon, Jermiyah Love, finished the first half with only four carries. Even more confusing, that fourth carry came early in the second quarter, and he wouldn’t take another hand off until the fourth quarter. I’m not sure if Denbrock just wanted to show confidence in his young QB by not being overly conservative, if he thought running the ball would be an uphill battle against this Miami front, or worst case scenario, Love is banged up. Whatever it may be, Notre Dame needs to figure out the right mix and balance on offense during this week’s bye before they host Texas A&M in Week 3.
Other Game Results of Note
USF 34 # 25 Boise St. 7
The Coaches poll dropped, and I asked, “Why is Boise ranked?” Then the AP poll dropped, and I asked, “Why is Boise ranked?” I rested my case after they got throttled by USF last Thursday. Bulls QB Byrum Brown is going to be a problem for teams this year, as long as he stays healthy, and this USF defense is no joke. Time to put a little on USF to win the American at +420?
Georgia Tech 27 Colorado 20
Coach Prime and the Buffaloes started the season with a L as they began a whole new chapter. A chapter that no longer has a top QB, a Heisman-winning unicorn, and some other players who went under the radar by the national media. The team doesn’t have the big play ability they had the past two years, and starting QB Kaiden Salter could find himself on the bench in favor of five-star freshman Julian Lewis if he doesn’t improve from what we saw in week one. Sanders announced that Lewis will for sure see some playing time in the team’s upcoming game against Delaware. Meanwhile, GA Tech was able to play its game, win the TOI, and lean into its run-heavy option offense. If Tech can play at a high level defensively this year, their low key are a dark horse in the ACC.
#24 Tennessee 45 Syracuse 26
I heavily poo poo’d the Volunteer offense going into the offseason. I didn’t have faith in Joey Aguilar at QB and didn’t like their skill position group. It may have only been one game against a poor defense, but Josh Heupel’s squad came out and gave me a hefty middle finger. Nearly 495 yards of offense, 243 on the ground, with Aguilar throwing for 247 and three tuddies. They still need to clean up some things I saw on defense, along with taking fewer penalties, but I may have been too harsh.
Utah 43 UCLA 10
Speaking of The Volunteers, their former QB, Nico Iamaleava, did not have a good outing in his first game with the UCLA Bruins. The former five-star went 11 of 22 for 136 yds and broke even on the TD to INT ratio 1-1. The one defense I’ll make for him is that the dude was running for his life all night as his O-line gave him swiss cheese level protection. Utah pressured Nico on over 50% of his dropbacks. Meanwhile, new Ute QB Devon Dampier balled out, going 21 of 25 passing and running the ball 16 times for a total of 293 yds, accompanied by three tuddies. I’m quickly getting sucked into the idea of Utah winning the Big 12.
TCU 48 North Carolina 14
The first tarheel offensive drive of the Bill Belichick era was an 83-yard touchdown drive, and then that was the last positive thing his team did all night, outside of scoring another TD in garbage time. Fun fact: including his time in the NFL, this was the most points ever given up by a Belichick defense. My only question is, should any of us really be surprised? Right off the bat, this UNC roster is not very good on paper. Second, Bill is a newbie to the college game, and lastly, the only thing people talked about all offseason in relation to the team was the relationship between their 71-year-old head coach and his 24-year-old girlfriend. TCU -3.5 was really the best bet you could’ve made all week one. That line was heavily media buzz-influenced and really a slap in the face to a good Hornfrogs team.
On Saturday Shoutouts
Week 1
Here’s a new gimmick for this season, where we shout out some big-time performances from players in games I didn’t cover.
First shout-out goes to Washington RB, Jonah Coleman.
The Huskies struggled against Colorado St. more than they should have. However, Coleman refused to let the team start 2025 with a bad loss. The senior RB carried the load with 24 attempts for 177 yds, two touchdowns, and picked up 10 first downs on his own.
Shout out to the new Duke QB, MY BOY, Darian Mensah.
I won’t lie, things were not pretty for the Blue Devils last Thursday as they found themselves tied 10-10 with Elon at halftime. Luckily, they piled on the points in the next thirty to hopefully erase the start of that game from people’s memories. In the process, Mensah stuffed the stat sheet, throwing for 389 yds and three TDs.
Let’s head out to the desert to give a shout-out to Arizona St. WR, Jordyn Tyson.
The junior wide out caught 12 balls for 141 yds and 2 tuddies for the Sun Devils this past Saturday night. Nothing else to say, just put this man on your 2026 NFL draft radar. Take a look at the ball tracking skills and hands on this kid.
Have a night @tyson_jordyn 👏
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) August 31, 2025
📺 ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/QMHZdx4HHT
Not only a shout out, but an apology to Texas A&M WR Mario Craver AND QB Marcel Reed.
I thought this Aggies offense was going to be all run game, and that Reed couldn’t sling it, but they proved me wrong in week one against UTSA. Reed went 22/34 passing as he racked up 289 yards and four touchdowns through the air. His favorite target was Craver, whom he connected with eight times for 122 yds and a pair of TDs. My apologies to Reed and the Aggies.
Go have yourself a day, young man.
One final week one shout out to Tulane CB Jaheim Johnson.
The man was a menace in the secondary for the Green Wave in their season opener against Northwestern. I have no clue why Wildcat QB Preston Stone kept throwing in Johnson’s direction, but he did it 10 times. Each time Johnson told Stone and his receivers to “get that sh*t outta here!” as he finished the game with four forced incompletions, three pass breakups, and snagged himself an interception.
College Football - Week Two Preview
As every year, we’ll be tracking Mike’s bets all year using this sheet. Be sure to keep track and a few weeks in decide if you’ll tail or fade the On Saturday Bets.
Week Two Marquee Matchups
Iowa @ #16 Iowa St. (-3.5)
Who doesn’t love a good rivalry game? The usual bustling farming industry in Iowa will come to a halt this Saturday as everybody drives their tractors up to Jack Trice Stadium to see The Hawkeyes face off with The Cyclones.
The Cyclones already have two games in the bag as they kicked off the 2025 CFB season, defeating Kansas St. in Dublin back in week zero. Last week, they were stateside and put a thumping on South Dakota 55-7. Props to Iowa St. for not letting the travel impact their play. Going up against an FCS team, you would hope the travel wouldn’t affect the game either way, but apparently it did for K-St. Yikes. Going back to that Dubli,n though, ISU’s defense picked up where it left off last season as a very strong unit. Outside of a couple of blown coverages, they held the Wildcat offense in check. Senior QB Rocco Becht continues to be one of the better-kept secrets in college football, and also one of the cooler names. When you name your kid Rocco, you know he’s going to grow up to be one of three things: a pro athlete, an actor, or a supervillain’s henchman. He’s started 2025 being an efficient 68.8% and clean with five touchdowns to zero interceptions. Through two games this season, the Cyclones have been on the run-heavy side, dropping back to pass on 44% of their plays. This has stopped me from getting an answer to my biggest question surrounding this team going into the season. What can Becht do without the WR duo of Jaydin Higgins and Jaylin Noel that he had in 2024? As I mentioned, the numbers have been good so far, but he hasn’t been forced into the right type of situation yet for me to get my answer. I can’t put too much stock in him tearing up South Dakota last week, sorry, and against K-St., he completed 50% of his passes for 183 and 2 touchdowns. He made the plays he needed to, yes, but we also saw three passes get dropped and, more importantly, I don’t think this year’s Wildcats defense is very good. Their offense together feels more systematic right now. I want to know what’s going to happen when they get down against a good defense and need to make the big plays to fight back.
In 2023, Iowa Hawkeyes football became a meme centered around how awesome punting the football was, because their offense was so bad, the options were either lean in and have fun with it, or throw up and cry yourself to sleep every Saturday. However, after scoring only 216 total points in 2023, they took a big leap and scored 340 in 2024. Going into this season, all I heard from Hawkeyes fans and pundits was how excited they were to finally have a QB like Mark Gronowski. A fifth-year senior, Gronowski spent the last four seasons at South Dakota St. before transferring to Iowa this offseason. At 6’2” 235lb, Gronowski is a big-bodied dual-threat QB who put up some big numbers in his four years starting for The Jack Rabbits. We are now one game into his time starting for The Hawkeyes, and…. is it too early to panic? He did score two tuddies, one passing and one on the ground. I could be a jerk and point out that the total yardage of those two scores was three yards, but instead, I’ll turn to the more concerning detail that he went 8 of 15 for 44 yards passing. Couple that with his ten rush attempts for 47 yds and the Hawkeyes didn’t even get 100 yards out of their new starting QB. They still won the game 34-7, but I forgot to mention that they were at home playing against the Albany Great Dames. The Fighting Scooby Doo’s. I’m very forgiving when it comes to poor offensive performances in game one. There’s no kind of scrimmage these teams can do in camp that will accurately simulate a real game experience. With that said, when you consider the competition, those results are alarming. Even if OC Tim Lester was using a shortened playbook for this type of game, you can’t average 2.9 an attempt with an ADOT of 4.8 and it not be concerning. Especially when you are headed on the road to face a ranked team. Iowa did run the ball well despite suffering a big setback early when starting RB Kamari Moulton went down with an injury in the first quarter. He didn’t return to the game and isn’t expected to play this week. In his stead, Terrell Washington Jr. and Redshirt freshman Xavier Williams carried the load. They both found success, but Williams stood out in particular, gaining 122 yards and scoring a touchdown on his 11 carries.
The second I saw this game on the schedule, I was smelling a low-scoring affair. I think both these teams are going to play conservatively until they’re in a situation that calls for them to push things down the field. Couple that with both these teams fielding strong, very experienced defenses, and all signs point to an underplay, but which one? The over-under on the game is set at 41.5. My concern is that Rocco Becht is a good QB, and they have a committee of ball carriers, Becht included, that can move the ball, especially as the game goes on and their O-line starts to wear down the other team. There’s a world where The Hawkeyes’ inability to move the ball allows The Cyclones’ offense to eventually break open the floodgates and put up some points, not enough for a self-cover, but enough to where added-on garbage-time points from Iowa could lead to a bad beat. Instead, I’m just going to hone in on the one team that I have no faith in putting up points and take the under on the Hawkeyes’ point total.
MY BET: Iowa Under 19.5 Total Points (-104)
#15 Michigan @ #18 Oklahoma (-5.5)
The only Top 25 matchup this weekend, both these teams have the potential to make some noise, and the playoffs, while also having a fair share of questions we need to see answered before anybody can start to really get behind the idea. I see this one as an early-season dividing line game in the sense that I think the winner comes out of it seen as a team to take seriously, while the other will be seen as good, but not playoff good.
Oklahoma started its season at home last weekend, soundly defeating Illinois St. 35-3. I almost gave them flak for not covering the 39.5 point spread, but once I considered that four of their touchdown drives were lengthy ones that ate between four to seven minutes of clock, I decided to let it slide. In that game, the program’s big transfer acquisition was on full display as QB John Mateer completed 81% of his passes for 392 yards and three touchdowns, along with adding another tuddy on the ground. Going into the year, this looked to be another highly skilled Sooner defense, and early results show that is the case as they held the RedBirds to only 151 yds. The only real red flag coming out of the game was their run game. OU barely got over 100 yds total on the ground, and even more damning, they averaged a poor 3.2 a carry. That was against Illinois St. of the FCS. That kind of performance sure as hell won’t cut it against teams in their own conference, let alone any FBS team in general. I understand that this team is probably going to drop back more than hand the ball off this season. Still, you have to find a way for your O-line to move guys up front to have some semblance of success on the ground, even if it’s just to pick up some first downs and keep churning the clock late in a game. I’m not looking for anything crazy, just manage to pick up four yards inside every once and a while to keep defenses honest.
After having arguably the worst QB play in the country last season, Michigan has a massive upgrade in true freshman Bryce Underwood, who was the number one nationally ranked player in the 2025 recruiting class. Michigan put in a lot of work and money to steal Underwood from LSU last fall. The hype around him has been big, and you can see why. He has the size, athleticism, and arm talent that you want when building a QB in a lab. This dude threw for almost 3k yards, 39 tuddies, and won a state title as a freshman in high school. He was among a handful of young QBs making their first collegiate start last week, and if you remove the competition each was facing, you can argue he had played the best. In the Wolverines’ 34-17 season-opening win at home against New Mexico, Underwood completed 67.7% of his passes for 251 yards and one touchdown. He also kept things clean, not turning the ball over and not registering any turnover-worthy plays. He didn’t get involved in the run game, which was smart. The kid is supposed to be the franchise for at least the next three seasons, maybe we don’t have him taking unnecessary hits from the Lobos. Speaking of the run, the Wolverines appear to have hit on their portal acquisition of Alabama HB Justice Haynes, who ran for 159 yards and three touchdowns. After the dreadful offensive woes the team had last year, this was a great performance to start 2025. However, this week is going to be a whole new ball game.
Hosting a G5 team at home as a 30-plus point favorite is way different than facing a ranked team like Oklahoma on the road. Most teams that have made a trip to Norman, Oklahoma, will tell you it’s one of the toughest places to play. Add to that it being a Top 25-ranked matchup in primetime, and this crowd is going to be wild. It’s one hell of a first college road game for Bryce Underwood. This is also going to be a big step up in defensive competition for Big Blue. The yards will not be easy to come by. It’s going to be time to see what first-year Michigan OC Chip Lindsey has in his playbook that he didn’t show in week one, because he’s going to have to ask more of Bryce Underwood in this game, possibly with his legs. Mixing in some QB run games could be necessary to combat the Sooners’ front seven. Arguably, my biggest concern surrounding Michigan going into the year was defense. Last year still had some notable pieces from the team’s 2023 Natty-winning team; those players are gone now. In particular, and people will call me crazy for saying this after they had three picks last week, I’m concerned about the Wolverines’ secondary. No offense to Jack Layne, who started six games for Idaho in 2024 before transferring to UNM, but keeping him in check compared to John Mateer is once again a whole different ball game. Per usual, the battle in the trenches will be key in this game. Can the OU line hold up to the Michigan Pass rush? On the flip side, if the Michigan front can get into the back field, there’s the question of them containing or bringing down the mobile Mateer. In that same breath, however, Mateer has to be smart and not YOLO things in the event he does face pressure. Second-year Michigan DC Wink Martindale has done a very good job since taking the job. You can’t go YOLO on Wink. Bad things can happen if you try to YOLO on the Wink.
To bring things full circle, this game is going to come down to the QB battle for me. Underwood will have to quickly level up from week one to two in the face of a very tough defense in a very hard environment. Meanwhile, Mateer is going to have to make up for his team not being able to run the ball while combating a very well-coached defense and finding his openings against this secondary. Damn, I just realized, I am ridiculously excited for this game.
My biggest concern is that Chip Lindsay could turtle shell his playcalling and get conservative due to having an inexperienced QB in this type of game. I liked what I saw out of this Sooner receiving core last week and I think Mateer will find ways to attack this Michigan secondary before Lindsay finally opts to ramp up the play calling. If those things come to pass, then I’m confident in OU going into the locker room ahead by more than a field goal.
MY BET: Oklahoma -3.5 1st Half (-106)
Everything Else I’m Watching & How I’m Betting
USF @ #13 Florida (-17.5)
This spread feels a little hefty. USF didn’t just beat Boise, they mollywhopped them in the second half of that game. USF’s defense is aggressive and physical; meanwhile, QB Byrum Brown is an athletic big-play hunter. Don’t get me wrong, Florida should by all means win this one, but Billy Napier’s squad better have their heads up and not get caught looking ahead to their game against LSU next week. The Gators are the all-around better team, so they should pull away eventually and cover the 17.5; however, I think USF can hang around in this one for at least 30 minutes of game time. I’m going to take the Bulls and the 10.5 points they’re getting in the first half, but that’s not all I’m taking. That’s right, boys and girls, it’s parlay time. I referred to Brown as a big play hunter, but the same can be said for Gator QB DJ Lagway, who is going to be one of the five best QBs in the nation this year. Florida put up 55 against LIU using their generic don’t show anything and keep it simple playbook. This week, especially if USF comes out and hits them in the chin a couple of times, they should unleash Lagway more. Allow him to show off what makes him special as he pushes the ball downfield. Give me over 56.5 total points for the second leg.
MY BET: 1st Half USF +10.5 (-120) & Total Points Over 56.5 (-110) Parlay = +240
#11 Illinois (-3.5) @ Duke
We have a nice QB battle here. Luke Altmyer and Darian Mensah are going to be out there slinging it!. . .maybe. It’s very much in Illini HC Brett Bielama’s toolbox to slow the tempo of this thing way down, which is the opposite of what the Blue Devils want to do. Either way, I’ve talked up Duke and Mensah ad nauseam this off-season, so time to plant my flag and call the upset.
MY BET: Duke ML (+130)
Baylor @ #17 SMU (-2.5)
Oh boy, does this Baylor defense once again look bad, I’m talking just gave up 308 yds rushing to Auburn bad. However, hot damn, this offense is explosive. Couple that with an SMU team that can move the ball while possessing what I would classify as an average defense, and people are hitting the over bets. Let’s see what we like? Over 62.5 at -115? No, I don’t like that. Hmm, 1st quarter over 13.5 maybe? Ew, no. It’s juiced all the way to -142. How about the first half over of 32.5 at -102? Wait, I found it. A bet buried within a pile of lines and totals that’s covered in disrespect. SMU’s 1st half total of 16.5 is juiced to the over at -125, because Kevin Jennings is soooo great. Meanwhile, Baylor’s 1st half total of 14.5 has been juiced to the under? People out here are really going to disrespect Sawyer Robertson like that? I won’t stand for it.
MY BET: Baylor 1st Half Total Points Over 14.5 (+106)
Western Kentucky @ Toledo (-7.5)
Western Kentucky QB Maverick McIvor has come shooting out of the gates this year. The senior QB is completing just shy of 70% of his passes and has thrown for 712 yards along with 8 tuddies in his team’s first two games. I agree with Toledo being the betting favorite to win this game, but that spread getting bumped up over seven is too much in my books. I’m not crazy about the juice on it, but I feel absurdly confident in it.
MY BET: WKU +7.5 (-120)
UCLA (-2.5) @ UNLV
We’ve gotten to see two games of the new Dan Mullen led Rebels, and I can’t entirely explain it, I’m hooked. The competition has been far from tough, Idaho St. and Sam Houston, but I’m digging the vibes. This Rebels offense is fun and can attack you in multiple ways. Meanwhile, I’m not sure if you watched any of that UCLA Utah game that I mentioned earlier, but there are absolutely no good vibes surrounding the Bruins teams right now. I’m taking the vibes and the home team for the win.
My Bet: UNLV ML (+118)
