Kiffin, Manning, and Avery Johnson: On Saturday – Week 4
Welcome everybody to the latest edition of On Saturday. The greatest college football column on the entire internet…When I get it done in time. This is a great week to finally make my debut for the 2026 season. Week 4 is what I consider that “show me week”. We have a three-week sample size on teams, but the one-month point of the season is when teams leave us with a tangible impression of who they really are. This goes double for teams who haven’t faced much real competition up to this point. Before we get into what will take place this weekend, along with bets to make you rich, let’s take a quick minute to recap some of the big happenings of the past week.
College Football - Week 3 TL;DR
Lane Kiffin Gets Humble in Return to Oxford
This game was a prime example of something CFB has that the NFL never will. The drama, the stakes, the animosity, the unreal feeling of electricity in a stadium. It was all made even better by Ole Miss defeating LSU and Lane Kiffin after he dramatically departed for what he thought was greener pastures. Chambliss played out of his mind with a Heisman performance, and we got the amazing image of Rebels CB Jaylon Braxton pointing at Kiffin as he ran down the field, celebrating his game-winning pick in the end zone. Next time someone asks why you love college football, show them this game.
Texas Tech Victorious in Key Big 12 Face-Off
For all intents and purposes, this game was the hardest on Texas Tech’s cake walk schedule. An early-season road game against a ranked team that is considered one of the few contenders to Tech’s throne in the Big 12. The game started badly for the Red Raiders, with the first offensive play being a Thomas Castellanos interception, because Joey McGuire is still overthinking his strategy at QB. Tech got it together, however, and real starting QB Will Hammond played well as his team stopped the Cougars on a two-point try for the 28-26 dub. The next test for Texas Tech is staying focused and avoiding any potential ball sittings in the future.
Minchey Mania Runs wild as UK Upsets Texas A&M
Not only did first-year head coach Will Stein and Kentucky get the program their biggest win in years, but they also did it on the road in what’s considered one of the toughest places to play. It wasn’t flukey either. The Wildcats straight up beat #9 Texas A&M. Transfer QB Kenny Minchey continues to thrive in his first year as a starter in Will Stein’s offense, going 14/18 for 253 and two tuddies, while CJ Baxter, a once big-time recruit at Texas whose career went off the rails due to injuries, brought his season total to 4 tuddies in 3 games. It’s time to start respecting UK as more than a basketball school.
NC State LITERALLY Fumbles the Bag
The Wolfpack were on the verge of a good road win over Vanderbilt this past Saturday. They intercepted Vandy QB Jared Curtis deep in NC St. territory with a minute left and a three-point lead. A few plays and a couple Vandy timeouts later, Dave Doern’s team had 4th down backed up near their own end zone. Simple situation: snap the ball, kill a few seconds, and take the safety. Kick the free kick and win the game. Instead, this happened…
🚨 VANDERBILT WALK-OFF FUMBLE RECOVERY IN THE END ZONE
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 19, 2026
NC STATE FUMBLED WHILE RUNNING OUT THE CLOCK 😳 https://t.co/TrahtvSGmG
The Commodores won 35-31. The real kick in the knackers? The line was NC St, +3.5. Brutal beat for people who took the points. As in me, I took the points!
College Football - Week 4 Preview & Best Bets
This week is S-T-A-C-K-E-D, stacked! Six, count’em, SIX Top 25 ranked matchups. There’s not even time for me to try and sound clever or funny. We just have to get right into it. As previously mentioned, I didn’t get my previous On Saturday columns submitted in time. Upside is, Adam still got my bets for those weeks and has the spreadsheet that tracks those On Saturday bets up to date. In short, things went great one week, and then went to shit the next. The pendulum is going to swing back in the other direction this week. I’m about to lay down NINE 100% spicy lock bets. If they don’t go at least 7-2, I’ll do the next TAP podcast in a Harley Quinn wig.
#4 Ole Miss @ #21 Florida(-3.5)
There are multiple games that have the argument to be labeled “The Game of the Week” this Saturday. I decided to go with the one I’m looking forward to just a tad more than the others. Rebels head coach Pete Golding just pulled off a big emotional win last week, and his team is now ranked number four in the AP poll; however, this week might actually be his biggest test yet in his young head coaching career. Can he keep his team locked in and get them up for this game? After all, it is the classic kind of letdown scenario. A team coming off a big win goes on the road to face a good team and is surprisingly dogs according to the books.
That aforementioned good team is the Florida Gators. Jon Summerall is a great head coach who has had success everywhere he’s been, and hot damn does he have the Gators playing some good football in his first year in Gainesville. A big part of that is star RB Jadab Baugh. Wanna take a guess who is top five in the FBS in rushing yards, touchdowns, yards after contact, breakaway yards, breakaway percentage, PFF run grade, and elusiveness grade? Jadan F’n Baugh. He sits at number one in half of those categories I just listed, btw. At 6”1” 225, you’d expect him to be able to take on the contact he does and pick up extra yards, but he’s also elite in his footwork, elusiveness, and speed. He will be a problem for an Ole Miss defense that has struggled against the run. While Jadan Baugh is going to be the X-factor against Ole Miss, it would be disrespectful to not mention QB Aaron Philo. After spending a couple of years backing up GA Tech QB Haynes King, he opted to leave and follow Yellow Jacket OC Buster Faulkner to Gainesville. It’s shown that he knows Faulkner’s offense with the way he’s hit the ground running. While the Gators are 47th in the nation in percentage of run plays at 56.1%, it’s that running attack that has opened things up for Philo to have success.
A big question we’ll find an answer to in this game is how legit this Florida defense is. The unit has great talent. At face value, you might point to the Gators giving up 39 points against Auburn as a concern. Don’t be a jabroni that just looks at final scores. Florida was up 41-24 early in the fourth and ended up allowing garbage-time points en route to a 44-39 win that was much more dominant than that score would suggest. However, Florida is facing a beast they have not seen this season in Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss. During last week’s win over LSU, Twitter (I know it’s X, but I still call it Twitter) was flooded with people posting about what my genius already knew. I don’t care if Chambliss is an inch shorter than what NFL teams would take; that dude is something special. Just like he does most weeks, he made NFL-level throws and was the difference. There were the deep-shot and TD highlights, but my favorite throw came on a 10-yard pass on 3rd and 9 where he drop-backed from the far hash and ripped a pass across his body to the boundary for the first down. Take a look, that is a big-boy throw that 90% of college QBs cannot make, including last year’s number one overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza. Yeah, Raiders Nation, I said it.
Trinidad Chambliss RIPS it from the far hash in 3rd and 9
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) September 20, 2026
NFL throw. https://t.co/gGRU7kyjcz
Chambliss being the best player taking the field in this game is really the deciding factor. He’s simply the kind of QB that makes up for his team’s deficiencies, including a situation where the Rebel defense allows a lot of points. If star RB Kewan Lacy, who is currently listed as questionable, ends up playing, that makes this offense more than what the Gator D can handle. As great as Florida has been playing, the Gators being favored is surprising.
Best Bet: Ole Miss Money Line (+130)
#1 Texas @ #14 Tennessee
I mentioned at the very top that week four is “show me week”, and there are few teams walking into more of a “show me game” than the Tennessee Volunteers. They haven’t faced much in the way of real competition. Going into the season, some expected their week two game against Georgia Tech to be a challenge, but departures on the roster and coaching staff have led to GA Tech being bad. Still, this Vols offense has been rolling. The headliner has been freshman QB Fazion Brandon (I know, that name sounds backwards). The five-star 2026 recruit has shown that he was ready to take the field on day one. Using his arm and his legs, Brandon has a combined total of 689 yards and nine touchdowns. He has also yet to throw a single pick, which is something worth highlighting when it comes to an 18-year-old QB immediately getting thrown into the fire. The Josh Heupel Vols are once again Voling with an RB tandem of Dean Bishop and Duane Morris combining for 520 yds at an average of 7.2 yds a clip. The offense is there, but their defense is still a question mark. Due to roster turnover, the unit had an evident decline from 2024 to 2025, and they had more roster turnover going into this year. This is the first week they will actually be tested.
As for Texas, they got some schedule luck. Instead of having to face a legit team the week after their big comeback win over Ohio State, they faced the University of Texas at San Antonio. They won the game, obviously, but their offense looked inconsistent. Beating the UTSA Road Runners 30-6 in a game where Texas was a 30-point favorite isn’t a good look. That offensive inconsistency is the biggest concern for the Longhorns going into this game. It starts under center with Arch Manning, who, ever since he took over as starter, has been up and down. A deer in the headlights one play, and then flashes his talent on another. Every game has shown that so far. From throwing a pick against Texas State, to being completely rattled for 70% of the game against OSU, and last week against UTSA, where he completed only 50% of his 32 passes for 161 yds. If the Longhorns want to remain number one in the nation, or more importantly, a legit contender to win the natty, they have to get a full 60 good minutes of play from Peyton’s nephew.
The advantage Texas has in this game is, as previously alluded to, the Vols and their freshman QB haven’t faced a legit defense. This Saturday they face not only a legit defense, but arguably the best defensive player in the SEC, edge rusher Collin Simmons. The notion that defense travels is the saving grace for Steve Sarkisian’s team on the road. The Longhorns D has an EPA per rush of -0.12, something paramount when facing the Tennessee offense that has to run the ball to have overall success. UT also has the 19th-best early-down EPA per play in the nation, which will put a team with an inexperienced QB behind in the down and distance. The Vols have to put up big points to win this game, and unfortunately, their opponent has the defenders to slow them down. Look for Texas RB Hollywood Smothers to have a big game as well, against a defense that has an abysmal run defense that averages 0.12 EPA per play. For those unfamiliar with the metric, it’s bad when a defense has a positive EPA per play.
BEST BET: Texas -5.5 (-106)
#17 Iowa @ #18 Michigan
In classic Big Ten and Iowa Hawkeye fashion, this is a big game that we already will be bored watching. Both of these teams’ strengths are their defense, while neither has an offense to write home about. Go back and look at the past three weeks; whenever either has faced an actual team, their offenses struggled. Even in Michigan’s big win a couple of weeks ago over Oklahoma, the Wolverine offense looked like someone trying to put a square peg into a round hole. They won that game because of their defense, along with Oklahoma’s offense looking like someone struggling to solve a four-piece puzzle. As for Iowa, I don’t need to go into detail on why their offense isn’t good, because it’s the Iowa Hawkeyes. That would be like explaining why it’s bright outside when the sun is up. Based on those mean comments, it makes sense that this game’s over/under is set at a whopping 38.5. The odds aren’t bad, with the typical split of -110 on each side. It’s a solid bet; however, if you like the under for the whole game, why not go under on the first half and get the better odds?
Best Bet: 1st Half Under 19.5 (-104)
#23 Texas A&M @ #10 LSU
Big game featuring two teams coming in licking their wounds. A&M fell victim to Super Kamario Taylor, getting upset by Mississippi St., and LSU lost to Ole Miss. The latter apparently was thanks to Lane Kiffin, who did the classic “My former team just beat me” deflection of saying he’d never see the Ole Miss crowd like that, and it MUST have taken him leaving for that to happen. Nice cope, Lane “Jack Eichel” Kiffin. (No one reading this got that reference.) With each of those losses being in conference, this game is big if they want to make the SEC title game. A loss here also puts that team in a situation where another could end their playoff hopes.
With the way A&M QB Marcel Reed has played this season, and against any good team in his entire career for that matter, you’d think I’d be heavy on Kiffin’s squad to win this game. The problem is, the Tigers’ expensive transfer QB Sam Leavitt has so far this season, to put it bluntly, sucked. The dude has more interceptions(5) than touchdowns(3). He threw three of those picks in the first half against LA Tech. Speaking of that week two game against LA Tech, Leavitt took five of the nine sacks he’s had over the past two weeks. The Tigers are also completing only 44% of their passes against zone coverage. That is not great when you are about to face an Aggie defense that 61% of the time plays zone.
To clarify, I’m not out right picking the Aggies either. With OC Collin Klein gone, Marcel Reed is completing sub-60 % of his passes and has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. They aren’t even running the ball as well as they have in the past, with a success rate of only 46%.
With all that stat vomit aside, a game that, going into the year, would’ve been expected to have some fireworks has now turned into a slog where whatever team can make those few offensive plays will win. The LSU secondary is good enough to make Marcel Reed no better than Sam Leavitt. LSU should win this game, especially with the bonus of home-field advantage. Tiger Stadium at night, brother. Stay away from the spread and stick to the theory that these offenses have serious problems.
Best Bet: Game Total Under 52.5 (-112)
#20 Oregon @ #12 USC
Your confidence in Oregon depends a lot on how much of a “get right game” you think their 82-0 victory over Portland St. was last week. Yes, it was against an FCS team, but sometimes that’s what a team needs to get back on track. One where they don’t have to overthink things, just go out there and beat the ever-loving snot out of a weak opponent. With that said, I’m not buying too much into the Ducks shutting out Portland St. after how shaky they looked in the team’s first two games against real competition. The other big factor for Dan Lanning’s team is whether or not this offense comes out of the gate slow like they did against Boise St. and Oklahoma St. Turning it on in the second half may not be enough against a Trojan offense that will be able to consistently put up points throughout this game.
I won’t waste time typing the long list of basic stats and advanced analytics metrics that Trojan QB Jordan Maiava is listed in the top five. In short, it’s A LOT. Their schedule through four games hasn’t been very tough, but the second-year starter has still performed the way he should against lesser competition. You can’t say that on the other side of the ball. USC’s defense has given up 26 pts to San Jose State, 30 to the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns, and 35 to a winless Rutgers team that is preoccupied trying to figure out when to fire their head coach. A big reason for that is USC regressing back to a team that can’t tackle. They’ve had 36 missed tackles through 3 games, which comes out to a rate of 16%. To be blunt, that’s bad.
Both these offenses will be able to put up points. While the lines are high, an over bet of some type is the way to go.
BEST BET: Total Game Over 61.5 (-110)
Lightning Round
South Carolina @ #8 Alabama:
Bama -12.5 (-110)
Bit of a vibes-fueled pick here. Shane Beamer’s tenure as the Gamecocks head coach is on life support, and the quit factor could start to sink in. From an on-the-field standpoint, this SC defense is very bad, and while Bama’s D hasn’t appeared to be anything special, the Tide offense will easily outpace South Carolina.
Kansas St. @ Cincinnati:
K-St. -6.5 (-106)
One consistent belief I’ve had since before the season started is that 2026 will be Avery! Johnson! Season! Former Texas A&M OC turned K-St. head coach Collin Klein has unlocked the potential that all us Avery truthers knew the kid had in him. Their offense has been rolling, and that won’t stop just because they are on the road in a conference game.
(Quick preview for future Talent Alone podcasts. I’m going to be obnoxiously talking up Avery Johnson during draft season.)
Clemson @ California:
Cal Moneyline (-106)
Sure, Clemson came back to beat North Carolina 28-20 after a long-ass weather delay, but take a moment to really think about that. Clemson came back to beat UNC, one of the most dysfunctional programs in the Power Four, by one score. At home, by the way. Dabo Sweeney can puff his chest out, talk in platitudes, and mention success that is ancient history all he wants. I’m not buying in. They are flying across the country to get torn up by my boy JKS. Sorry ‘bout it.
Oklahoma St. @ West Virginia:
Ok St. Moneyline (+104)
I’m a big fan of Rich Rodriguez. After a tough first year in his second stint as West VA head coach, he finally has that classic Ric Rod run-heavy offense humming, and his dual-threat QB Michael Hawkins is thriving in it. The OU transfer has 477 yards, 5 tuddies and no picks passing through three games, plus 322 rushing yards and 6 TDs. To be fair though, I’m also a fan of Ok-St. head Eric Morris. Even more so, I’m a big fan of QB Drew Mestemaker, who, after a tough week one loss to Tulsa, has turned it on. The dude absolutely balled out in the Cowboys’ Week 2 upset of Oregon, throwing for 300+, running for 100+, and scoring three total td’s, including his epic game-winning rushing tuddie late in the fourth. He followed that by going 20/22 for 324 yards and tossing a casual 5 scores before taking a rest on the bench for most of the second half. Ok St. likes to go fast and run a lot of no-huddle. They’ve run the 11th most offensive plays out of the 138 FBS teams. It’s that pace that will make the difference. Speed the game up and have the lead late in the game to force the Mountaineers to lean more on the pass. The reason Michael Hawkins has been successful is that he hasn’t been in situations where the offense has had to overly rely on his arm. The more dropbacks WVU has to call, the more likely his flaws as a passer will be exposed and lead to whoopsie daisy mistakes.
That wraps up this weeks On Saturday. Hope you get to join me in cancelling any plans, ignoring your family, and watching college ball from 12pm to 12am this weekend. Stop back by next week for more great analysis and bets for my fellow degenerate gamblers.
